The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

盾构法T接隧道结构受力现场试验研究——以宁波轨道交通3号线联络通道为例

为了了解盾构法T接隧道在施工过程中主隧道外部的荷载以及响应,以国内第一条使用机械法施工的联络通道--宁波轨道交通3号线为背景进行研究。本文通过研究施工过程中的施工工况节点,现场监测主隧道结构的外荷载、收敛变形并计算结构内力,得到在整个施工过程中主隧道的结构响应及其变化规律。通过本文的研究,可以得出以下结论： 1）施工过程可依据外部荷载和结构体系进行划分工况,各工况具有明显的不同响应; 2）始发端和接收端的内力变化主要受到盾构顶力和外部注浆荷载的影响,且主要影响切削侧,切削过程中的内力增量在10%～20%,注浆压力影响的增量部分达到了50%; 3）各环及内支撑轴力增量在200 kN以下,破洞位置导致的轴力损失可以由其余位置共同承担,不需要特殊的破洞阶段超载设计。     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Asymmetry in transport fuel demand: Evidence from household level data

Models for gasoline demand for transportation activities generally assume that demand is perfectly reversible with respect to gasoline price (and income). The small literature which relaxes the reversibility assumption in gasoline demand argues technological fixation leads to this asymmetry and utilizes aggregate time-series model to find evidence in favour of asymmetry. In this research it is suggested that there could also be behavioural factors behind this asymmetric response, possibly due to the loss aversion nature of human beings as described in the prospect theory. For the first time, household level data was used to understand asymmetry in gasoline demand in response to changes in gasoline price and income. There was statistical evidence that gasoline price and income both can induce asymmetric changes in gasoline demand among households. Specifically, elasticity with respect to rising prices and falling income is larger than the elasticity with respect to falling prices and rising income respectively, which is consistent with loss aversion in gasoline purchase behaviour. There was also some evidence of heterogeneity in the asymmetric responses between urban and rural households. The results have implications for transport-related energy tax policies or subsidies, while the method can be applied directly for non-energy goods as well.     

考虑冰、浪等复杂载荷工况的半潜式平台应力与运动响应特征

半潜平台在极地深水海域应用广泛,经常面对冰、浪等复杂载荷。本文从应力时程和运动时程两方面分析了半潜平台在波浪载荷,海冰载荷以及冰-浪联合载荷作用下的响应特征。结果表明,虽然海冰载荷的存在具有一定程度的抑波作用,平台的震荡得到缓解,但是冰-浪联合载荷会导致平台关键节点部位所受应力幅值大幅增加,并超过海冰和波浪单独作用产生的应力之和,对半潜平台的结构安全造成较大威胁。因此在研究、设计极地海域半潜平台时应同时考虑冰、浪对平台的影响。     

东海涌浪环境下大型起重船吊装组块耦合运动响应数值模拟研究

我国东海海洋环境复杂,经常出现小波高、长周期的涌浪.长周期涌对系泊大型起重船吊装海洋平台上部组块影响比较大,尽管涌的波高较小,但是,吊物组块运动幅度明显比同等波高海况时的要大,严重影响了海洋平台的安装施工效率和进度,甚至威胁作业安全.本文采用水动力势流软件,建立系泊-大型起重船(包括吊臂)-索具-大型组块吊物的耦合运动模型,研究复杂涌浪环境下耦合系统运动响应特性及其机理,并开展了参数敏感性分析,讨论对耦合响应影响因素.最后,对东海涌浪情况下起重安装施工,提出了降低吊装组块运动响应的建议措施.     

张力腿式浮式风机平台的水动力和空气动力耦合响应分析

文章采用了空气动力、水动力、控制与弹性完全耦合的时域模拟方法研究了张力腿式浮式风机平台的动力响应.水动力载荷的计算采用了三维势流理论与Morison公式.空气动力载荷的计算采用了叶素动量理论和广义动态尾流理论.利用FAST软件得到了张力腿式浮式风机平台响应的时域结果,并分析了其动力响应特性.建立了描述平台纵荡运动的非线性微分方程,并采用了摄动方法求得其近似解,解释了纵荡运动中由非线性粘性效应引起的高频响应.对数值模拟结果的分析表明高频的响应分量对平台的动力性能有显著的影响.     

风电运维船与风机塔基耦合水动力响应分析研究

海上风电运维船通常采用船首顶靠海上风机塔基靠船桩的方式来保证风机维护人员的安全登塔,因此对其在相应海况条件下的纵摇、升沉等水动力响应进行分析研究很有必要.本文采用Fine/Marine和AQWA软件,对某运维船在实际海况条件下的耦合水动力响应进行分析研究,从而为风电维护人员的安全登离以及辅助登离设备的研发提供参考.     

南海风浪条件下Spar式浮式风机平台的构型及参数

使用WAMIT软件建立了OC3-Hywind Spar式浮式风机模型,联合FAST软件计算了浮式风机在不同工况下的幅值响应算子;结合为南海海域波浪条件优化后的JONSWAP谱,对浮式风机进行了不同工况下的响应谱分析及最大响应值计算;进一步阐述了浮式平台结构构型参数的变化对整体结构在南海相应工况下的运动影响。     

基于AQWA的双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤水动力分析

运用AQWA软件,针对双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤,建立不规则波作用下浮体锚链的耦合模型,研究时域情况下,改变水平板与浮箱的垂直间距,分析浮体运动响应以及锚链受力情况;并深入探讨了不同波浪周期和波高情况下水平板长度对浮体运动响应以及锚链受力的影响.结果表明,增加水平板与浮箱的垂直间距和水平板长度,可以有效减小浮体运动响应和锚链受力.波高和波浪周期是浮体重要的水动力因素,波高越大,波浪周期越长,浮体运动响应越剧烈;当浮体水平板长度达到21米左右时,整个防波堤达到最佳锚泊状态.