基于ANFIS的环境激励下桥梁结构应变响应预测分析

为准确预测复杂环境荷载作用下混凝土连续梁桥结构应变响应,基于结构健康监测系统长期实测数据,分析桥梁结构温度场变化规律,进而基于主成分分析及自适应神经网络模糊推理系统,建立桥梁结构温度场与桥梁结构应变响应的复杂非线性关系。首先,利用小波分解技术分离环境荷载及车辆荷载作用下的桥梁结构实测应变响应;然后利用平行坐标轴,分析混凝土连续梁桥结构温度场变化规律,并利用主成分分析提取结构温度场实测温度数据主成分;最后基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统,以应变测点处温度数据、桥梁结构温度场实测温度数据主成分和采样时间点数据为输入数据,分别建立不同输入变量组合与应变响应的复杂非线性关系,并对比分析不同工况下结构应变响应的预测精度。结果表明：桥梁结构各测点处实测温度数据变化趋势基本一致,同侧测点实测温度数据高度相关,但桥梁结构上、下表面测点温度变化存在明显差异,仅考虑应变测点处温度变化,难以准确预测桥梁结构应变响应;当考虑桥梁结构温度场变化时,能更精确地建立温度与应变响应之间的关系模型,进而基于实测温度数据准确预测桥梁结构应变响应;当缺乏结构温度场实测温度数据时,将采样时间点作为反映桥梁结构温度场变化规律的参数,可取得较好效果。     

隧道爆破荷载作用下中隔壁动力响应与破坏机理研究

中隔壁结构作为隧道初期支护体系中重要的承载构件,在隧道爆破荷载作用下极易发生损伤开裂和破坏。首先依托双向八车道的港沟高速公路隧道工程,进行爆破荷载作用下中隔壁的动力损伤破坏试验,提出中隔壁支护结构的破坏形态及类型;然后利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA建立隧道爆破与中隔壁支护结构数值模型,采用流固耦合的方法模拟岩体爆破及中隔壁支护结构的动力响应,并考虑单段装药量、爆距等不同因素,研究其对中隔壁破坏模式及形态的影响。研究结果表明：隧道爆破荷载作用下中隔壁破坏形式分为背爆侧混凝土开裂剥落、中心区域混凝土震塌成洞、钢筋网及纵向连接钢筋震坏断裂、钢拱架发生扭曲变形4种类型;中隔壁支护结构在爆破应力波的作用下处于反复拉压状态,并在岩石破碎抛掷冲击的作用下发生破坏,且中隔壁支护结构中心、顶部和底部是结构最易发生损伤的部位;单段装药量和爆距的改变会对中隔壁支护结构的破坏范围和破坏程度产生影响,且结构呈现出不同的破坏形态,与现场试验结果一致;建议隧道爆破施工时爆距控制在40 cm以上,单段药量控制在7.2 kg以下,以减少对中隔壁支护结构的破坏。     

基于LSTM网络的驾驶意图识别及车辆轨迹预测

自动驾驶汽车需具备预测周围车辆轨迹的能力,以便做出合理的决策规划,提高行驶安全性和乘坐舒适性。运用深度学习方法,设计了一种基于长短时记忆（LSTM）网络的驾驶意图识别及车辆轨迹预测模型,该模型由意图识别模块和轨迹输出模块组成。意图识别模块负责识别驾驶意图,其利用Softmax函数计算出驾驶意图分别为向左换道、直线行驶、向右换道的概率;轨迹输出模块由编码器-解码器结构和混合密度网络（MDN）层组成,其中的编码器将历史轨迹信息编码为上下文向量,解码器结合上下文向量和已识别的驾驶意图信息预测未来轨迹;引入MDN层的目的是利用概率分布来表示车辆未来位置,而非仅仅预测一条确定的轨迹,以提高预测结果的可靠性和模型的鲁棒性。此外,将被预测车辆及其周围车辆组成的整体视为研究对象,使模型能够理解车-车间的交互式行为,响应交通环境的变化,动态地预测车辆位置。使用基于真实路况信息的NGSIM（Next Generation SIMulation）数据集对模型进行训练、验证与测试。研究结果表明：与传统的基于模型的方法相比,基于LSTM网络的轨迹预测方法在预测长时域轨迹上具有明显的优势,考虑交互式信息的意图识别模块具备更高的预判性和准确率,且基于意图识别的轨迹预测能降低预测轨迹与真实轨迹间的均方根误差,显著提高轨迹预测精度。     

Augmented Reality Vehicle system: Left-turn maneuver study

Augmented Reality “AR” is a promising paradigm that can offer users with real-time, high-quality visualization of a wide variety of information. In AR, virtual objects are added to the real-world view in real time. The AR technology can offer a very realistic environment for enhancing drivers’ performance on the road and testing drivers’ ability to react to different road design and traffic operations scenarios. This can be achieved by adding virtual objects (people, vehicles, hazards, and other objects) to the normal view while driving an actual vehicle in a real environment. This paper explores a new Augmented Reality Vehicle “ARV” system and attempts to apply this new concept to a selected traffic engineering application namely the left-turn maneuver at two-way stop-controlled “TWSC” intersection. This TWSC intersection experiment, in addition to testing the feasibility of the application, tries to quantify the size of gaps accepted by different driver’s characteristics (age and gender). The ARV system can be installed in any vehicle where the driver can see the surrounding environment through a Head Mounted Display “HMD” and virtual objects are generated through a computer and added to the scene. These different environments are generated using a well defined set of scenarios. The results from this study supported the feasibility and validity of the proposed ARV system and they showed promise for this system to be used in the field-testing for the safety and operation aspects of transportation research. Results of the left-turn maneuver study revealed that participants accepted gaps in the range of 4.0-9.0 s. This finding implies that all gaps below 4 s are rejected and all gaps above 9 s are likely to be accepted. The mean value of the left-turn time was 4.67 s which is a little bit higher than reported values in the literature (4.0-4.3 s). Older drivers were found to select larger gaps to make left turns than younger drivers. The conservative driving attitude of older drivers indicates the potential presence of reduced driving ability of elderly. Drivers’ characteristics (age and gender) did not significantly affect the left-turn time. Based on the survey questions that were handed to participants, most participants indicated good level of comfort with none or small level of risk while driving the vehicle with the ARV system. None of the participants felt any kind of motion sickness and the participants’ answers indicated a good visibility and realism of the scene with overall good system fidelity.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

盾构法T接隧道结构受力现场试验研究——以宁波轨道交通3号线联络通道为例

为了了解盾构法T接隧道在施工过程中主隧道外部的荷载以及响应,以国内第一条使用机械法施工的联络通道--宁波轨道交通3号线为背景进行研究。本文通过研究施工过程中的施工工况节点,现场监测主隧道结构的外荷载、收敛变形并计算结构内力,得到在整个施工过程中主隧道的结构响应及其变化规律。通过本文的研究,可以得出以下结论： 1）施工过程可依据外部荷载和结构体系进行划分工况,各工况具有明显的不同响应; 2）始发端和接收端的内力变化主要受到盾构顶力和外部注浆荷载的影响,且主要影响切削侧,切削过程中的内力增量在10%～20%,注浆压力影响的增量部分达到了50%; 3）各环及内支撑轴力增量在200 kN以下,破洞位置导致的轴力损失可以由其余位置共同承担,不需要特殊的破洞阶段超载设计。     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

Daily activity and travel sequences of students,faculty and staff at a large Canadian university

This paper examines the activity engagement, sequencing and timing of activities for student, faculty and staff commuter groups at the largest university in the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The daily activity patterns of all university community groups are modeled using the classification and regression tree classifier algorithm. The data used for this study are derived from the Environmentally Aware Travel Diary Survey (EnACT) conducted in spring 2016 at Dalhousie University, Nova Scotia. Results show that there are significant differences in activity and travel behavior between university population segments and the general population in the region, and between campus groups. For example, students participate in more recreation activities compared to faculty and staff. They also take more trips to and from campus, and are more flexible in their scheduling of trips. The insights gained from this study will provide helpful information for promoting sustainability across university campuses, and for development of campus-based travel demand management strategies.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.