高速公路山岭隧道设计阶段安全风险评估

通过定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,利用专家分析法和层次分析法研究各风险控制因素与权值.从技术角度考虑设计方案中各种不确定因素对后续施工及运营造成的不利影响,并得出相关结论,对于指导实际工作有一定的意义.     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

基于OWA与灰色聚类的城市轨道交通PPP融资风险评价方法研究

针对城市轨道交通PPP融资成本高、投资回收期长、不确定性因素多等特点导致整个融资过程充满风险,且难以进行科学的评价,进而增加风险评价难度的问题,提出基于OWA与灰色聚类的城市轨道交通PPP融资风险评价方法。首先从全寿命周期角度构建城市轨道交通PPP融资风险指标体系。然后基于OWA算子对专家决策数据按照降序的方式重新排序,消除极值带来的不利影响,加权得出指标的权重值。最后考虑指标的灰色性、信息不完整性,构建灰色白化权函数实现指标信息的透明化,完成对PPP融资风险的聚类分析。应用构建的模型对郑州地铁1号线一期工程PPP融资风险进行评价,认为该地铁工程PPP融资风险等级高,应重点关注前期策划、社会资本、政策环境、设计质量、成本超支、建设质量、残值7个主要风险指标的控制,以期为该项目融资风险管理提供建议,并进一步丰富城市轨道交通PPP融资风险的评价方法。     

Vehicle lift-off modelling and a new rollover detection criterion

The modelling and development of a general criterion for the prediction of rollover threshold is the main purpose of this work. Vehicle dynamics models after the wheels lift-off and when the vehicle moves on the two wheels are derived and the governing equations are used to develop the rollover threshold. These models include the properties of the suspension and steering systems. In order to study the stability of motion, the steady-state solutions of the equations of motion are carried out. Based on the stability analyses, a new relation is obtained for the rollover threshold in terms of measurable response parameters. The presented criterion predicts the best time for the prevention of the vehicle rollover by applying a correcting moment. It is shown that the introduced threshold of vehicle rollover is a proper state of vehicle motion that is best for stabilising the vehicle with a low energy requirement.     

公路生态系统服务功能分析及评估

文章探讨了公路生态系统的生态服务功能,提出价值评估指标体系及定量评估方法,为公路生态系统的恢复或重建提供理论依据,对全面、正确评价公路生态系统有积极意义。     

利率市场化与商业银行利率风险控制研究

分析了我国利率市场化改革对商业银行利率风险的影响,并提出了商业银行加强利率风险控制的对策。     

建设工程项目施工管理的风险分析及防范

本文针对项目施工管理中存在的主要风险,分析了风险产生的原因,提出了防范风险的建议和对策,以供同行交流讨论。     

厦门地铁2号线钻探工程海上通航安全评估

依据港口通航现状、港口发展规划、附近海域船舶交通现况,分析通航安全形势,预测厦门轨道交通2号线跨海路段施工期间,船舶交通流可能的变化和通航环境、通航秩序的适应能力,论证在施工期间存在的通航安全风险、主要问题及通航安全保障能力,并提出保障通航安全的可行性建议和措施.     

基于名义应力法的动车组车体净水箱吊装部件疲劳强度分析

针对高速运行动车组车体悬挂设备振动疲劳损伤问题,以某型动车组车顶净水箱吊装结构为研究对象,采用名义应力法对吊装结构的焊缝部位进行疲劳强度评估.根据EN 12663标准确定净水箱的工作载荷工况,采用有限元法计算了各工况下结构的振动响应,并基于BS标准计算了焊缝疲劳评估点的寿命.假定各载荷工况出现频率相同的情况下,构造了工作载荷历程,采用Fe-safe软件对焊缝的疲劳寿命进行了仿真分析.两种方法分析结果均表明:焊缝1与焊缝2寿命最低,是结构最易发生疲劳破坏的位置;焊缝位于筋板表面的焊趾寿命低于位于主支撑板表面的焊趾寿命.     

基于灰色关联度的船舶风险控制方案多指标评价模型

分析了仅依靠成本效益评估而选择的船舶风险控制方案的片面性,综合考虑安全、环保、经济收益、成本等多因素对方案所表现的影响,建立了基于灰色关联度的船舶风险控制方案多指标评价模型。论文所建立的该模型可以充分利用各方案的指标取值所包含的信息,并考虑专家主观因素对指标重要度的影响,通过主客观综合赋权的方法突出某个指标在方案排序中的作用。以国际海事组织对液化天然气船的综合安全评估报告所提供的风险控制措施为例,使用该模型进行方案优选,并与仅用成本效益评估所得结果比较;分析比较表明:论文所建立的多指标评价模型可以更全面评估风险控制方案,方法合理,使用简便可靠。