机动车超速行驶防范对策分析

机动丰超速行驶是引起交通事故的主要原因,是严重的道路交通违法行为之一。机动丰超速是由于驾驶人没有及时纠正驾驶过程中的误判、误动的结果。引起超速的原因包括驾驶人、机动车、交通安全设施和其他因素四个方面,应从教育培训、法律、交通安全设施、交通科技四个方面采取措施预防超速。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

直升机舰上起降安全的影响因素研究

舰载直升机的起降安全涉及到舰机两方面,且影响因素较多。本文首先对舰载直升机起降安全因素进行了系统分析,梳理了其关键影响因素舰船空气流场中各特性参数对直升机操作性能的影响。然后介绍了用于舰船空气流场测量的三种典型方法,对舰船空气流场的深入研究有重要指导意义,并可为机舰动态配合研究提供参考。     

葛洲坝1号船闸增设防撞安全设施的探讨

葛洲坝1号船闸由于与三峡船闸匹配运行,船舶实行导航墙待闸,下行船舶在导航墙停靠时距离人字门较近,而且下行船舶首船进闸后停靠位置与下闸首人字门距离较近,都具有碰撞人字门的风险。针对葛洲坝1号船闸人字门存在被碰撞的风险,结合上、下闸首的现场情况分别就上、下闸首人字门增设防撞设施方案的可能性进行分析,提出提升式、侧开式和下沉式等方案,并讨论各方案实现的可能性、优势及不足,为船闸人字门防撞安全设施的方案设计及应用提供参考。     

In search of surrogate safety indicators for vulnerable road users: a review of surrogate safety indicators

Surrogate indicators are meant to be alternatives or complements of safety analyses based on accident records. These indicators are used to study critical traffic events that occur more frequently, making such incidents easier to analyse. This article provides an overview of existing surrogate indicators and specifically focuses on their merit for the analyses of vulnerable road users and the extent to which they have been validated by previous research. Each indicator is evaluated based on its ability to consider the collision risk, which can be further divided into the initial conditions of an event, the magnitude of any evasive action and the injury risk in any traffic event. The results show that various indicators and their combinations can reflect different aspects of any traffic event. However, no existing indicator seems to capture all aspects. Various studies have also focused on the validity of different indicators. However, due to the use of diverse approaches to validation, the large difference in how many locations were investigated and variations in the duration of observation at each location, it is difficult to compare and discuss the validity of the different surrogate safety indicators. Since no current indicator can properly reflect all the important aspects underlined in this article, the authors suggest that the choice of a suitable indicator in future surrogate safety studies should be made with considerations of the context-dependent suitability of the respective indicator.     

海堤内坡种植防护林的安全影响分析及尺度论证

海堤从外海堤脚至内侧护堤之间的滩涂围垦空间,既是陆地边缘,也是水的边缘。外侧可构建滨海景观,内侧结合随塘河形成亲水景观,具有得天独厚的优势。内侧平台的防护林及景观有机结合,可构建人们休闲旅游的"黄金绿带"。结合台州某海堤生态提升工程,提出海堤生态提升总体技术方案,重点对海堤内坡种植景观防护林对海堤安全的影响进行分析,明确种植平台高程、尺度布置等主要技术参数,为类似海堤生态改造工程提供参考。     

水力式升船机塔楼结构分析

塔楼结构是升船机的主体建筑物,针对景洪水电站水力式升船机塔楼的受力特点,采用数值计算方法及模型试验方法对水力式升船机塔楼结构进行深入研究。结果表明:数值计算结果和模型试验结果基本一致。通过施工完建后的相关监测结果对该设计进行论证,可为同类水力式升船机的塔楼设计提供借鉴。     

深圳港铜鼓航道抓斗船施工通航安全

深圳港铜鼓航道是大型货轮进出深圳各大港口的必经要道。针对抓斗船施工对通航船舶存在安全影响的问题,通过计算通航船舶的安全距离,确定抓斗船施工方案,在保证船舶通航安全的前提下,提高抓斗船施工效率,通过精确定位及合理避让方案确保边施工边有序通航。     

Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

道路运输行业安全监管现状分析及对策研究

结合道路运输行业安全监管现状,从道路运输行业安全监管职责和内容、监管方式、安全检查方面对道路运输行业安全监管存在的问题进行分析,并有针对性的提出了相应的建议和对策。