Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO₂ for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO₂ of 1.5%.     

电控发动机节气门体故障分析

介绍了电控发动机节气门体的三种类型及特点。分析了各种节气门体的典型电路、信号特征和故障特征。     

双体穿浪船船体振动特性分析

针对非常规船型的双体穿浪船,应用整船有限元模型进行了船体总振动和局部振动的计算分析,得到了有别于常规船型的复杂的双体船振动特性,并据此提出了一些双体船的减振对策。     

A network-based dispatch model for evaluating the spatial and temporal effects of plug-in electric vehicle charging on GHG emissions

The well-to-wheel emissions associated with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) depend on the source of electricity and the current non-vehicle demand on the grid, thus must be evaluated via an integrated systems approach. We present a network-based dispatch model for the California electricity grid consisting of interconnected sub-regions to evaluate the impact of growing PEV demand on the existing power grid infrastructure system and energy resources. This model, built on a linear optimization framework, simultaneously considers spatiality and temporal dynamics of energy demand and supply. It was successfully benchmarked against historical data, and used to determine the regional impacts of several PEV charging profiles on the current electricity network. Average electricity carbon intensities for PEV charging range from 244 to 391 gCO₂e/kW h and marginal values range from 418 to 499 gCO₂e/kW h.     

基于事故树分析法的船舶LNG燃料加注火灾防控研究

文章采用事故树分析法,对船舶LNG燃料加注时可能引起火灾的事件进行了分析,提出了相应对策,为LNG动力船舶燃料加注的安全管理提供了参考。     

Research on Energy Efficiency Design Index for Sea-going LNG Carriers

This paper describes the characteristics of liquefied natural gas （LNG） carriers briefly. The LNG carrier includes power plant selection, vapor treatment, liquid cargo tank type, etc. Two parameters fuel substitution rate and recovery of boil of gas （BOG） volume to energy efficiency design index （EEDI） formula are added, and EEDI formula of LNG carriers is established based on ship EEDI formula. Then, based on steam turbine propulsion device of LNG carriers, mathematical models of LNG carriers＇ reference line value are established in this paper. By verification, the EEDI formula of LNG carriers described in this paper can provide a reference for LNG carrier EEDI calculation and green shipbuilding.     

Assessing greenhouse gas and related air pollutant emissions from road traffic counts: A case study for Mauritius

The road transport sector is one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants emissions. Regional emissions levels from road vehicles were investigated, in Mauritius, by applying a fuel-based approach. We estimated fuel consumption and air emissions based on traffic counts on the various types of classified roads at three different regional set ups, namely urban, semi urban and rural. The Relative Development Index (RDI), a composite index calculated from socio-economic and environmental indicators was used to classify regions. Our results show that the urban motorways were the most polluting due to heavy traffic. Some rural areas had important pollution levels as well. Our analysis of variance (ANOVA), however, showed little difference in emissions among road types and regions. The study can provide a simple tool for researchers in countries where data are very scarce, as is the case for many developing countries.     

Achieving environmental sustainability beyond technological improvements: Potential role of high-speed rail in the United States of America

In order to reduce energy use and cut emissions that contribute to climate change, countries need to radically reinvent their fossil-fuel intensive transportation systems. As a major consumer of energy and contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the U.S. transportation sector faces extraordinary challenges in the twenty-first century. Transportation in the U.S. depends heavily on fossil-fuel dependent cars and planes to the near exclusion of more energy-efficient electric trains. In order to address this concern, some policy makers refer to “technological optimism” which seeks no systemic change but instead focuses on employing technology to reduce the energy demand and environmental impact of the status quo. On the other hand, some researchers suggest a systematic paradigm shift away from cars and planes to intermodal systems that improve the sustainability of the system as a whole. High-speed rail (HSR) is arguably such an investment that can further this shift and help to achieve a more diversified and balanced transportation system. In this respect, by largely examining the role of the U.S. cars and planes “culture” in the economy, this paper elaborates on how building a HSR system may help U.S. advance towards environmental sustainability in transportation, make a break from the status quo, and create a more balanced, multimodal transportation system that will improve the quality and efficiency of travel.     

内河大型自航绞吸挖泥船浅水阻力数值计算

利用CFD方法计算某内河大型自航绞吸挖泥船在浅水状态下的总阻力。在不同水深及不同航速下对船模周围流场进行数值模拟,计算过程考虑自由面的影响。将计算结果与模型试验作比较,计算结果有较高的可靠性。并通过分析这类船型的流场分布进一步理解船舶在浅水航行中的阻力成因。     

Opportunities for increased profit and reduced cost and emissions by service differentiation within container liner shipping

This paper investigates opportunities for increased profit and reduced emissions and cost by service differentiation within container shipping. Traditionally the strategy among the container lines has been profit maximization by utilizing economies of scale through the building of larger and faster vessels. In 2008, the financial crisis in combination with higher fuel prices put an end to this progress and in today’s market operators are basically trying to survive by providing standardized services at the lowest possible cost. This study investigates alternative strategies and the results indicate that container lines should provide two different services instead of one standardized service. A fast service to be more competitive versus air freight for fast-moving goods and a slow service to be more competitive versus traditional shipping types for transport of minor bulk, break bulk, liquid bulk and project cargo.