具有碎石基层的半刚性沥青混凝土路面的非线性有限元分析

在充分考虑碎石基层非线性(弹塑性)特性的基础上，采用非线性有限元法分析了吉林通化试验路3种路面结构面层底面及半刚性基层底面弯拉应力的变化规律，并对通化试验路2种具有碎石基层半刚性沥青混凝土路面结构的沥青混凝土面层的抗疲劳寿命进行了预估。     

变截面钢板弹簧梯形叶片的斜面位置分析

梯形变截面钢板弹簧具有轧制的线形简单、对设备要求不高等优点。将梯形截面与抛物线截面进行对比分析，以梯形叶片的斜面与抛物线相切为基础，以切点在材料利用最充分处、端部、根部为重点，分析了梯形叶片在不同位置时的端部厚度、斜面的水平长度、梯形叶片与抛物线叶片的质量比，其结果对梯形叶片的设计具有一定的参考价值。     

一种确定高圆簧横向刚度的有效方法

文中将高圆簧简化为等截面弹性直杆，导出高圆簧横向刚度计算式，并用试验结果进行修正，提出高圆横向刚度分析方法。理论分析和试验结果表明：高圆簧横向刚度的大小取愉于高圆簧的自由高度和工作高度，即由其结构几何参数和工作载荷决定。按文中方法确定的高圆簧横向刚度理论值与试验结果间的最大误差不超过１０％，满足工程理论分析要求。     

列车运行图可调整度评价系统研究

在详细分析了列车运行图缓冲时间的大小及其分布规律对列车晚点传播影响的基础上，通过建立列车运行图调整系统，对给定晚点程度的列车进行模拟调整，从而计算出列车晚点恢复率，晚点传播区大小，连带晚点时间和关键列车运行线等。指标来达到对列车运行图可高速程度优劣评判的目的。     

Development and calibration of a long-distance passenger traffic assignment model

This paper studies the assignment of long-distance passenger traffic on a highway corridor network. First, we propose a traditional model for the long-distance traffic assignment considering interactions with local commuter traffic. It addresses the effect of local networks on highway corridors. An iterative algorithm is developed to solve for the exact solution. Then, to address the potential computational issues that arise therein, a decomposition method is proposed by introducing a new concept of corridor elasticity. An assignment procedure for long-distance passenger traffic is developed accordingly. Numerical tests show that the proposed decomposition method makes significant improvements in computational performance at a small loss of optimality. This decomposition method well approximates the exact assignment from the traditional formulation, especially when the highway corridors are near-saturation. The proposed decomposition method appears practical for application.     

A multi-spring model for monopile analysis in soft clays

The offshore wind industry in China has seen a rapid development in recent years and is projected to account for half of global yearly installed capacity in the years to come. Monopiles are a popular foundation solution for supporting offshore wind turbines. However, due to challenging seabed soil conditions, which often feature thick normally consolidated soft clays and harsh environmental loading (i.e. frequent occurrence of typhoons), extremely long monopiles are often designed. The large monopiles are costly to fabricate and install and sometimes kills the viability of the concept in cases where the bedrock is relatively shallow and expensive piling in rock is otherwise required. However, the state-of-practice for designing these monopiles in clays is typically by using the API p-y springs, which are widely known to underestimate soil-pile interaction stiffness and capacity for large diameter monopiles. Improvement to the design method can therefore have significant economic implications to the industry. The paper presents an effort toward this direction. A multi-spring beam-column model suitable for monopile design in soil conditions in China is proposed. The model features three soil spring components, namely the lateral p-y spring, the pile tip base shear s-y spring and rotational m-θ springs along the pile shaft. The validity of the model is verified by a comprehensive suite finite element parametric analyses. Guidance for incorporating the cyclic loading effect into design is also provided. The model proposed in this paper has large potentials for application in design practice.     

基于需求弹性的城市公交票价优化方法及实证分析

城市公交票价是公交系统健康发展的重要因素，票价制定需兼顾公交企业的市场性和公益性双重属性，在保证服务质量的同时，考虑运营成本和最大限度吸引公交需求，实现经济效益和社会效益的双赢.在本文中，根据用户均衡理论，构建了城市多方式交通出行的需求分析模型，采用灵敏度分析方法给出了城市公交价格-需求弹性的计算方法.在此基础上，充分考虑了各种方式的交通特征、公交需求弹性、公交运营成本及政府限价等因素，提出了城市公交票价优化的数学规划模型，并给出了求解算法.最后，以国内某城市居民出行调查及公交运营数据为基础，分析了不同条件下公交客运需求的变化规律及城市公交票价的优化策略.     

Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong

This paper estimates the price and income elasticities of air cargo demand and examines how they may change after the 2008 financial crisis. Using a set of time series data, we simultaneously estimate the aggregated demand and supply functions of air cargo at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA). We find that during the entire sampling period of 2001–2013, the price elasticity for air cargo transport demand at HKIA ranges from −0.74 to −0.29, suggesting that air cargo demand in Hong Kong reacts negatively to price (as expected) but does not appear to be very sensitive to price. The income elasticity ranges from 0.29 to 1.47 and appears sensitive to seasonality adjustment approaches. However, in terms of the speed of changes, air cargo demand changes much faster than overall economy, indicating the presence of a pro-cyclical pattern of air cargo traffic with respect to the overall economy. Our analysis shows that air cargo demand becomes more sensitive to changes in both price and income after 2008.     

基于地基回弹因素的盾构隧道管片上浮预测

针对软弱地层盾构隧道管片脱出盾尾后出现的上浮问题,分析盾构施工过程中管片上浮的诱因,得出软弱地层中管片的上浮主要是地层应力重分布产生的地基回弹力引起的。在此基础上建立隧道开挖动态模型,分析隧道上浮量变化规律以及地层特性对管片上浮量的影响规律,得出地层弹性模量和管片上浮量呈一定的指数关系,且弹性模量对管片上浮量的影响远大于地层黏聚力和内摩擦角。通过力平衡理论计算盾构开挖引起的地层回弹力、管片上浮量以及隧道上浮影响的地层高度范围,并通过对珠江狮子洋工程管片上浮量的计算与实测对比,证明该公式的合理性,为盾构隧道工程中考虑地基抗力引起的管片上浮量预测提供一种新的方法。     

A signal-based fault detection and classification method for heavy haul wagons

This paper proposes a signal-based fault detection and isolation (FDI) system for heavy haul wagons considering the special requirements of low cost and robustness. The sensor network of the proposed system consists of just two accelerometers mounted on the front left and rear right of the carbody. Seven fault indicators (FIs) are proposed based on the cross-correlation analyses of the sensor-collected acceleration signals. Bolster spring fault conditions are focused on in this paper, including two different levels (small faults and moderate faults) and two locations (faults in the left and right bolster springs of the first bogie). A fully detailed dynamic model of a typical 40t axle load heavy haul wagon is developed to evaluate the deterioration of dynamic behaviour under proposed fault conditions and demonstrate the detectability of the proposed FDI method. Even though the fault conditions considered in this paper did not deteriorate the wagon dynamic behaviour dramatically, the proposed FIs show great sensitivity to the bolster spring faults. The most effective and efficient FIs are chosen for fault detection and classification. Analysis results indicate that it is possible to detect changes in bolster stiffness of ±25% and identify the fault location.