江苏省民用航空运输统计现状与分析

统计工作是数据整理和数据分析的依据。民航统计也是我国民航局一直重视和积极实施及完善的工作之一。作为经济大省,江苏省民航运输统计工作对江苏省民航运输发展具有较强的辅助作用。该文首先分析了民航运输统计的意义和必要性,然后探讨了江苏省民航运输统计的工作思路,最后构建了江苏省民航运输统计指标体系。     

关于统一号码制和非号码制货车停留时间计算方法的研究

针对现行铁路货车停留时间采用两种统计方法所存在的问题,提出了统一指标含义、号码制采用按日结算制、非号码制采用批处理统计货物作业车的作业过程、各作业过程的一车平均停留时间改为一次作业平均停留时间等改革该项统计指标的建议.修改后的统计方法使号码制和非号码制两种统计方法得出的货车停留时间有了相同的含义,并能真实、准确地反映车站当日的工作实绩,又减轻了统计人员的作业负担.     

桥梁结构损伤识别的预测模型研究

多元回归分析在工程实际和科学研究中有着广泛的用途，无论是对未来的经济预测还是对结构的健康评估都将起到重要的作用。介绍了基于数理统计理论建立多元逐步回归预测模型的方法，并将其运用到损伤识别领域。根据监测系统所获得的桥梁结构健康状态下的测试数据所建立的预测模型可用于桥梁结构的损伤识别，并且这种方法可考虑各种因素对结构响应量的影响，识别效果好，适用性强。     

Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

双车道公路路侧危险级别的安全影响分析

将路侧危险等级分成第1层路侧危险度和实际路侧危险度2个层次,针对路侧环境对安全影响问题进行了分析,包括全部事故、碰撞事故、追尾事故、路侧事故和事故死伤情况等。分析结果表明,不同层次的路侧危险度对碰撞事故、追尾事故和路侧事故影响特征基本一致,但趋势度有所差别,对全部事故和事故死伤情况的影响结果相反。     

正态分布与统计学的关系史研究

本文以时间为顺序,以人物为依托,将正态分布与统计学的关系史划分为四个时期：正态曲线的发现、正态分布的再生、正态分布与近代统计学的融合以及正态分布对现代统计学的影响,并结合不同阶段的发展背景,对该理论的思想演化过程及其代表人物的重要工作做了比较系统的分析与总结。     

高阶统计量在主动声呐混响信号谱估计中的应用

对主动声呐混响信号进行谱估计,用高阶统计量对混响信号建立自回归模型,并建立基于高阶统计量的Yule-walker方程,解方程得到估计系数.将高阶统计量谱估计的结果与二阶统计量估计的结果进行比较,得出高阶统计量对自回归模型的谱估计优于二阶的结果.高阶统计量能弥补二阶统计量无法反映信号相位特性的不足,提高谱估计的一致性.     

General statistics of diesel engines’ idle time: Shunting locomotives in industrial sidings in Poland 2009…2013

Shunting locomotive/switcher (AmE)/utilization profiles are analyzed in this paper, in particular on the basis of idle time data collected in nineteen Polish industrial sidings and yards. 40 years old, diesel-electric locomotives are observed during 1000 h. Idle times related to work cycles are analyzed statistically. The percentage of the shunting locomotive daily operating time that the engine is operating at idle amounts to 70% (from 55% to 90%), and average daily idle fuels consumption amounts to 150 l a day (from 90 to 240 l a day).Many European and Asian countries still operate a significant number of similar (ChME3, e.g. S200) old, diesel-electric locomotives (almost 8000 locomotives have been produced), for moving trains over long distances and as shunting locomotives.Observed frequent short idle time periods suggest necessity of widening future scope of idling times’ analysis. Adaptation of Polish rolling stock will be possible using prior general public education about dangerous carcinogens in diesel exhaust smoke and fuel waste related to diesel engines’ idling. Simple simultaneous depiction of diesel engine power time series together with idle time could be used for educational visualization of idling among a wider audience. In the future classical aggregated idle time statistics should be supplemented by models that are more related to the variability of shunting locomotives diesel generator’s power time series, e.g. distribution of frequent short individual idle time cases.     

日本物流调查的经验与借鉴

物流调查是物流设施规划与政策制定的重要基础。物流数据统计发展滞后已成为制约中国物流业发展的重要瓶颈。通过梳理日本在物流调查方面的工作进展,总结其在调查制度保障、组织模式、调查方案、调查内容及方法等方面的特点。针对中国物流行业发展现状,提出具体建议:加快开展货运需求调查的前瞻性研究,规范并指导企业构建统一的物流信息数据与平台,远期将货运调查纳入综合交通调查体系等。     

深圳地铁一期工程车辆电气系统及其故障统计分析

简要介绍了深圳地铁一期工程车辆电气系统主要电气设备的主要特点。结合车辆1年多的使用情况,对车辆电气系统中牵引与辅助系统的故障进行了统计与分析,并提出了一些检修建议。