Real-time freeway traffic state estimation based on extended Kalman filter: Adaptive capabilities and real data testing

This paper reports on real data testing of a real-time freeway traffic state estimator, with a particular focus on its adaptive capabilities. The pursued general approach to the real-time adaptive estimation of complete traffic state in freeway stretches or networks is based on stochastic macroscopic traffic flow modeling and extended Kalman filtering. One major innovative feature of the traffic state estimator is the online joint estimation of important model parameters (free speed, critical density, and capacity) and traffic flow variables (flows, mean speeds, and densities), which leads to three significant advantages of the estimator: (1) avoidance of prior model calibration; (2) automatic adaptation to changing external conditions (e.g. weather and lighting conditions, traffic composition, control measures); (3) enabling of incident alarms. These three advantages are demonstrated via suitable real data testing. The achieved testing results are satisfactory and promising for subsequent applications.     

Reliability analysis of repairable systems using stochastic point processes

In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.     

SEAM沥青混合料的试验结果与技术性能分析

对SEAM沥青混合料的试验结果与技术性能进行了分析。     

内河航道横流对船舶航行的影响

为了使船舶能安全通过航道内的横流区域,利用水槽进行遥控自航船模试验,提出了内河航道横流对船舶航行横漂速度、漂角、航迹带宽度和漂距影响的经验公式,分析了Ⅳ与Ⅴ级航道横向流速的限值范围。分析结果表明:横流对船舶航行的影响程度主要与对岸航速成反比,与横流的大小及区域长度成正比,与船型大小(航道等级)成反比,同时与驾驶员的航行经验和初始船位有关;在限制航路航行方式过程中,Ⅳ与Ⅴ级航道对岸航速为2、3、4m·s-1时,可克服的一个船长内横流限值为0.48、0.58、0.70m·s-1。     

终端区飞机排序的混合人工鱼群算法

为了保障飞行安全,对终端区着陆飞机进行有效的排序,建立了以航班延误总时间最小为目标函数的规划模型,以人工鱼群算法为基础,融合了遗传算法的选择操作和模拟退火算法的依概率接受的思想,形成混合人工鱼群算法,对着陆飞机排序问题进行了仿真计算,并与先到先服务算法、模拟退火算法以及蚁群算法进行了对比研究。仿真结果表明:与先到先服务相比,使用人工鱼群算法使得单跑道、双跑道延误分别减少了9·3%和48·0%,计算时间小于3s;与蚁群算法和模拟退火算法相比,求解的延误与时间最小,因此,提出的混合算法可行。     

Case Analysis on Vehicle Parking and Departure Plans for the National Stadium

As the main venue of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the National Stadium hosted the opening and closing ceremonies, field and track events, and final football games. This paper intends to study the problems associated with vehicle evacuation from the parking lot, and develop evacuation plans. First, the paper analyzes the particular conditions of the parking lot in the National Stadium, as well as its layout and vehicle evacuation. Then, it simulates and evaluates the evacuation plans with the suitably given parameters, based on the real blueprint of the National Stadium and scenarios. Finally, it conducts a comparative analysis on the accuracy and practicability of the vehicle evacuation plans based on the field data collected at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. The simulation result shows that the total vehicle evacuation time was 26 minutes and the real evacuation time was 27 minutes on the day of the opening ceremony, which verifies that the study is accurate and practical.     

Modeling Feedback Scheme of Empty Cars in Unloading End of Heavy Haul Railway

The transportation organization of heavy haul railway is complex in China, especially, the feedback of empty cars. On the basis of reference to the existing research results, and deep analysis of the characteristics of empty cars distribution of heavy haul railway, the authors construct the feedback schematic model of empty cars in unloading end of heavy haul railway. The minimum quantity of the combined trains and the time for combination is taken as the model goal and solution algorithm on the basis of minimum cost and maximum flow is formulated. Daqin railway is taken as an example and relevant conclusions of feedback scheme of empty cars of heavy haul railway, through an analysis of calculation results, are drawn.     

铁道车辆液压减振器卸荷速度选取方法

为了精确选取铁道车辆各类液压减振器的卸荷速度,提出了一种选取卸荷速度的2σ方法。通过试验测试和动力学仿真计算,得到液压减振器两端的相对速度,并进行概率统计分析、参数估计和概率分布假设检验。在相对速度属正态分布的前提下,计算相对速度的2σ值,并作为减振器的卸荷速度。计算结果表明:通过该方法确定卸荷速度的液压减振器可使95%的车辆低频振动得到衰减,5%的高频振动得到过滤。     

聚丙烯纤维水泥稳定碎石收缩性能

为了减小水泥稳定碎石的收缩,研究了聚丙烯纤维对水泥稳定碎石收缩性能的影响,分别用千分表支架法和应变片电测法对聚丙烯纤维水泥稳定碎石和普通水泥稳定碎石的干缩性能和温缩性能进行了测试,分析了材料的平均干缩系数和平均温缩系数随纤维掺量变化的规律。试验结果表明:聚丙烯纤维的掺入可显著地减小水泥稳定碎石的平均干缩系数和平均温缩系数,高龄期聚丙烯纤维水泥稳定碎石的平均干缩系数比低龄期的小,而高龄期的平均温缩系数却比低龄期的大;在纤维体积掺量小于1‰的范围内,随着纤维体积掺量的增加,水泥稳定碎石平均干缩系数和平均温缩系数均逐渐减小。可见,在一定的纤维掺量范围内,聚丙烯纤维水泥稳定碎石具有良好的抗收缩性能,应用于路面基层可提高路面的抗裂性能。     

基于约束卡尔曼滤波的短时交通流量组合预测模型

为了克服单一的交通流预测模型性能不稳定的问题,提出了基于约束卡尔曼滤波的短时交通流量组合预测模型。约束卡尔曼滤波组合预测模型以各单一预测模型的权重为状态变量,交通流量为观测变量,预测结果是单一预测模型的加权和,加权系数由约束卡尔曼滤波方程递推动态确定,最后通过广深高速公路上采集的交通流量数据对算法进行了验证。结果表明,在不同预测步长情况下,约束卡尔曼滤波组合预测模型要优于最佳的单一预测模型或与其持平,并且不受某一较差的预测模型影响,具有较高的鲁棒性。