基于博弈论的船舶电力系统脆性负熵流分析

将博弈论引入到船舶电力系统性负熵流研究中,研究表明,船舶电力系统务子系统对负熵的获取是满足极大熵准则下的非合作博弈.通过仿真表明船舶电力系统务子系统对负熵流的合理获取对船舶电力系统的安全稳定性至关重要.     

中大型客滚船的线型与推进系统研究

本文介绍了当今世界上典型的中大型客滚渡船传统的线型设计方法和推进系统,以及近年来针对大型客滚渡船研发的新推进理念和方法。详细介绍这些新的推进理念,并将其与传统的方式进行比较,对将来的实际应用提出了建议。     

我国近期道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测

在讨论发达国家交通事故发展变化规律及我国道路交通安全现状的基础上,对我国近期交通安全形势进行分析,并采用灰色系统理论对我国未来五年的交通事故总量进行预测。对于提高道路安全水平具有积极的意义。     

绕碰撞点转动的汽车二维碰撞速度分析

利用刹车印公式、动量守恒定理和相对质心转动的冲量矩定理．通过测量出碰撞点的位置,在不需要车辆回转角速度、法向弹性恢复系数和切向相时滑动摩擦系数的情况下,推算出一种两汽车发生二维碰撞时的速度。     

统一理论在钢管混凝土拱桥动力性能分析中的应用

钢管混凝土统一理论是基于试验和有限元计算的基础上提出来的。很好的反映构件的工作性能。应用这种理论对钢管混凝土拱桥的动力性能进行分析得到动力特性与实测结果相符．为钢管混凝土拱桥动力特性评价提供可靠的依据。     

基于模糊理论与层次分析法相结合的公交技术综合评价

采用模糊理论与层次分析法相结合的方式,对建立的城市公交技术综合评价模型进行评价．有效地改善了采用单一方式进行评价的弊端。     

物流产业的非差异性定价模型研究

物流产业中的活动主要是依靠物流网络采实现的,同时,物流产业的竞争又体现在物流企业的定价策略上,本文运用博弈论原理和方法,结合我国具体环境,建立了物流产业中非差异性的物流网络定价模型,在此基础上,对非差异性物流网络定价从经济学的角度进行了深入分析。最后,从政府的角度对物流产业的非差异性定价提出了建设性的建议。     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.