Reliability analysis of repairable systems using stochastic point processes

In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.     

如何运用LEC进行航道工程施工危险源辨识

随着国家对内河航道建设力度的加大,航道工程施工的安全生产管理问题也愈显突出。根据航道工程施工的特点,依据国家和行业有关规定,提出了航道工程施工危险源辨识的依据和方法,为进一步加强航道工程施工单位自身安全管理的针对性、有效性,制定了适合政府监管的行业管理办法和适合施工企业管理的行业标准提供依据。     

A stochastic analysis of highway capacity: Empirical evidence and implications

This paper presents a stochastic characterization of highway capacity and explores its implications on ramp metering control at the corridor level. The stochastic variation of highway capacity is captured through a Space–Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. It is identified following a Seasonal STARIMA model (0, 0, 2₃) × (0, 1, 0)₂, which indicates that the capacities of adjacent locations are spatially–temporally correlated. Hourly capacity patterns further verify the stochastic nature of highway capacity. The goal of this paper is to study (1) how to take advantage of the extra information, such as capacity variation, and (2) what benefits can be gained from stochastic capacity modeling. The implication of stochastic capacity is investigated through a ramp metering case study. A mean–standard deviation formulation of capacity is proposed to achieve the trade-off between traffic operation efficiency and robustness. Following that, a modified stochastic capacity-constraint ZONE ramp metering scheme embedded cell transmission model algorithm is introduced. The numerical experiment suggests that considering capacity variation information would alleviate the spillback effect and improve throughput. Monte Carlo simulation further supports this argument. This study helps verify and characterize the stochastic nature of capacity, validates the benefits of using capacity variation information, and thus enhances the necessity of implementing stochastic capacity in traffic operation.     

Signal coordination model for local arterial with heavy bus flows

Conventional Transit Signal Priority (TSP) controls often reach the limitation for arterials accommodating heavy bus flows since the priority function can significantly increase delay at minor streets. Under such conditions, a proper signal progression plan that accounts for the benefits of buses may offer the potential to improve the reliability of bus operations and increase the bus ridership. This study proposes a bus-based progression model to reduce the delay of buses on local arterials. Given the cycle length and green splits at each intersection, the bus-based progression model, grounded on the same notion as conventional signal progression methods, considers the operational characteristics of transit vehicles, such as the impact of bus dwell time and the capacity constraints at bus stops. Also, to deal with the stochastic nature of dwell time, this study introduces additional constraints to maximize the percentage of buses which can stay within the green band after leaving bus stops. Taking an arterial with five intersections and three two-way bus stops as an example, this study applies VISSIM as an unbiased tool for model evaluation. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can significantly reduce bus passenger delays and the average person delays for the entire arterial, compared with the conventional progression models.     

厚卵砾漂石地层注浆止水新型材料注浆效果试验研究

在富水厚卵砾漂石地层中,采用传统的注浆浆液进行止水,浆液极易在地层内大量流失,且注浆后浆液扩散不均、多呈"糖葫芦"状扩散,无法保证注浆效果。针对富水厚卵砾漂石地层的地质特点,针对注浆材料进行一系列室内配比试验,并通过注浆模型试验及现场试验进行卵砾漂石地层的注浆材料研究。试验表明:在厚卵砾漂石地层中,采用2种新型浆液即CD-SCA(水泥+聚羧酸钠盐型分散剂-水玻璃+硫酸铜+明矾)浆液和PC-SCA(磷酸-水玻璃+硫酸铜+明矾)浆液,注浆浆液呈柱状均匀扩散,扩散半径满足设计要求,地层的渗透性明显改善,满足了帷幕止水墙的止水效果,为今后同类地层注浆止水工程施工提供了有效借鉴。     

二阶随机需求条件下公交网络的服务可靠性研究

引入服务可靠性这一概念,以乘客出行成本和车行运营成本最小为目标建立随机需求下的 公交网络模型,并提出固定需求的服务方案模型和改进的二阶随机方案模型。该模型体现了乘客 公交出行的选择策略并反映了公交网络中不确定需求和服务可靠性的相互联系。在分析公交出行 网络中的服务设计,包括常规服务和特别服务的基础上,运用二阶下降法通过规定不确定的随机 变量（服务可靠性参数） 来求解二阶随机方案：首先在一阶段减少混合整数规划的数量以节省计 算时间,随后在二阶段中模拟出一个线性规划,以便有效地求解二阶随机方案。最后,通过实例 模型验证了该方案的可行性。     

公路桥梁随机车流的平稳性和各态历经性检验

根据6条公路桥梁28条车道上的WIM系统实测车辆信息,分别生成了各车道上的随机车流类型过程.用随机过程理论分别计算得到各随机车流类型过程的集合均值、集合相关函数、时间均值、时间相关函数等随机特性参数.进一步对比分析,验证了所建立的随机车流类型过程的平稳性和各态历经性.结果表明:从实际公路上调查一定数量的车辆,其统计特性能够代表总体样本的车流信息,对车辆各种特征的统计结果具有代表性,可为公路桥梁随机车辆荷载模型的建立提供参考.     

基于手机信令数据的游客识别与出行轨迹匹配方法

为统计旅游交通的客运量，分析公路交通运输需求，优化运输组织，合理构建“快进慢游”综合交通旅游网络，研究提出基于手机信令数据的游客识别与出行轨迹匹配方法。通过划定景区边界，设置停留时间阈值，识别手机用户的游客身份；同时，借助地图工具批量计算信令发生位置间的出行路线与行程时间，匹配实际公路网。实例分析结果表明，手机信令数据能呈现手机用户的出行轨迹，且信令数据的位置轨迹与公路线位走向结合密切。在人们越来越依赖地图导航软件规划出行路径的背景下，利用该方法能更准确地识别景区游客并估计游客往来景区的出行路径。     

基于遗传算法的舰船舱段可靠性优化设计

遗传算法在引入动态自适应策略和"免疫算子"之后,其收敛效率有了较大的提高。对于以可靠性作为约束的随机结构系统优化问题,以罚函数法为基础,构造了有效的约束与目标函数向适应值函数的映射公式。建立合理的安全余量,采用随机有限元法处理结构分析中所涉及的有关参量的随机性,计算结构响应和敏度分析,并进行系统的可靠性计算。通过两种算法的结合,利用自适应免疫遗传算法、随机有限元法及可靠性的基本理论,建立了一套完整的基于遗传算法与随机有限元的结构系统可靠性优化设计方法。对舰船舱段结构梁系截面的优化计算结果表明,算法对多随机因素结构系统的可靠性优化具有良好的收敛效果。     

随机减量法识别转向架构架的频率

随机减量法是一种随机激扰下的模态参数识别方法。在实际线路上对CW-200转向架构架的振动加速度进行了测量,并依据随机减量法对测得的加速度数据进行了构架的三阶刚体模态的识别,得到了三阶刚体模态对应的频率。证实了随机减量法识别构架模态参数的可行性。