Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

基于工作过程系统化的汽车车身修复技术课程设计

本文以基于工作过程系统化思想,对汽车车身修复技术课程进行了设计.阐述了本课程基于工作过程系统化的课程设计思路、学习情境设计、课程教学方法及考核方法设计.     

兰州地铁地温分布特性及其演化规律

以兰州地铁所在地区为研究对象,实测地铁隧道开挖前的地温(简称为初始地温),根据实测数据,提出地铁初始地温预测模型公式。采用非稳态传热的数值模型,分析运营条件下地铁隧道围岩温度的演化规律。结果表明:兰州地铁初始地温随环境气温和埋深的变化而变化;年变温层位于自地表至埋深12m处;年恒温层位于埋深12m及其以下,温度为15℃左右;年变温层中,1年内初始地温变化规律与环境气温变化规律相似,近似呈正弦曲线状分布,但存在相位滞后的现象;1年中初始地温的振幅随埋深的增大呈指数下降趋势。在隧道内空气与围岩之间热交换中,兰州地铁隧道围岩的温度及其梯度、热透厚度(未达到极限时)均与隧道内环境温度、热交换时间成正相关关系,但与距隧道内壁的距离成负相关关系。     

Residential built environment and walking activity: Empirical evidence of Jane Jacobs’ urban vitality

This study intends to empirically verify Jacobs’ urban vitality theory, which was based on the observations of her New York City neighborhood in the mid-20th century. To examine the relationship between the residential built environment and walking activity, we used telephone survey data consisting of 1823 valid samples from across Seoul, a city characterized by a high population density and a well-established public transportation system. Respondents were asked questions about their residential location, their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, and their walking activities. This study then used geographic information systems to measure objective indicators of built environment variables within 500-meter buffer areas based on the home addresses of the respondents. Then, this study constructed multilevel regression models with walking activity as the dependent variable. Our results indicated that walking activity is associated with Jacobs’ six conditions for urban vitality, including land use mix, density, block size, building age, accessibility, and border vacuums.     

道路环境对交通安全的影响及对策

交通安全,涉及到人、车以及道路和环境等很多因素。近年来,因为各种原因使得有关单位以及人员将更多的将精力放在人、车、道路这几个因素上,对道路交通环境没有过多的考虑和研究。深入研究道路交通环境,有利于道路交通的安全,文章通过对其的研究和分析,得出有关道路交通环境对交通安全的影响和解决措施,对于防止道路交通安全事故具有重要意义。同时为人们的生命财产的安全提供保障、对构建社会主义和谐社会具有很大帮助。     

深海超高压环境模拟容器裂纹评定

深海超高压环境模拟容器用于模拟水下压力环境,其容器壁上承受反复载荷,容易产生疲劳裂纹.疲劳裂纹扩展是影响其断裂的主要因素.本文旨在分析半椭圆裂纹在老化的深海超高压环境模拟容器中的扩展行为,评估容器的安全性,因此对材料20MnMoNb钢的裂纹扩展特性进行了试验研究,首先考虑三角形和梯形加载情况,通过比较两组实验结果,考察了其材料对保载时间的敏感性.采用基于统一的裂纹扩展率模型的三维有限元方法进行了疲劳裂纹扩展计算,并通过CT试样的一组数值和实验结果进行了验证,最后建立了不同初始尺寸、展弦比和倾角的裂纹有限元模型,并根据裂纹在容器内壁的容许深度准则,计算了容器的剩余寿命.其分析结果可为深海超高压环境模拟容器可靠性评估提供参考.     

25t轴重荷载作用下隧底脱空区域受力特性分析

为了研究在役铁路隧道在通车之后隧底脱空病害的问题,采用有限元理论,建立隧道脱空区域在围岩压力与25 t轴重列车动载作用下的数值计算模型,主要研究80 cm与40 cm脱空宽度分别距隧道中心线0,80 cm与160 cm时脱空区域的受力特性。结果表明:在围岩压力下,脱空区域中线上壁和外侧顶角混凝土中产生拉应力及内侧顶角中产生压应力,其中压应力对脱空的宽度更为敏感;同时施加列车动载作用时,脱空区域上壁出现了竖向动应力与横向拉应力,得到了脱空区域力学指标的最大响应值及其出现的具体位置,宽度的增加对脱空区上壁横向拉应力更为显著,上壁横向拉应力增幅超过200%,竖向动应力增幅达50%。因此,隧底脱空区周围应力分布复杂,拉应力与压应力在脱空区域同时存在,应力突变严重,对脱空现象应及时组织处理。     

城市综合体对社区居民出行行为影响研究

城市综合体作为一种高度复合的新型开发模式，通过改变社区建成环境，对居民日常活动产生了潜移默化的影响.本文从交通规划者视角，对城市综合体产生的社区居民出行行为影响进行了研究.基于问卷调查数据，通过倾向得分匹配预处理，弱化个人信息对于出行特征分析的干扰，以有城市综合体的社区居民自陈述的出行变化作拟纵向分析，初步把握城市综合体对社区居民出行特征产生的影响趋势.而后对有无城市综合体两类社区居民的出行数据进行对比分析.结果显示，城市综合体开发模式可有效促进居民产生更多的短距离慢行出行替代机动化长距离出行以满足弹性需求.本研究可为城市综合体区别于传统单一用地开发模式的交通系统配置提供方向指导.     

基于价值工程的全生命周期趸船材质方案比选研究

将趸船整个生命周期过程中的技术先进性、经济合理性和环境协调性有机地融合为一体,基于价值工程理论提出趸船材质方法比选。实例表明在千岛湖这样的大吨位船舶碰撞概率很小的水域,采用混凝土趸船明显优于钢质趸船。     

大城市中小学周边地区交通拥堵问题分析与解决策略

交通拥堵已经成为我国大城市的一种社会问题,它与每一个人都息息相关,如何更好地处理这种问题,使其减少对人们出行的影响,成为值得每一个人思考的问题。针对大中型城市中的交通拥堵其中的一种现象进行深入的剖析,系统介绍交通拥堵的成因,有针对性地提出如何改善中小学周边地区交通拥堵现象的一些观点和做法。