特种装备项目的节能评估方法研究

特种装备的购置及改造项目属于固定资产投资范畴,在审批环节中应进行节能审查。本文以科学考察船为例,基于分析科学考察船与其他类固定资产的不同,阐述了科学考察船建设方案的节能评估、能源消费种类及能耗测算方法,并就评估过程中存在的问题提出了相关建议。     

Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

Using the built environment to oversample walk,transit, and bicycle travel

Characteristics of the built environment (BE) have been associated with walk, transit, and bicycle travel. These BE characteristics can be used by transportation researchers to oversample households from areas where walk, transit, or bicycle travel is more likely, resulting in more observations of these uncommon travel behaviors. Little guidance, however, is available on the effectiveness of such built environment oversampling strategies. This article presents measures that can be used to assess the effectiveness of BE oversampling strategies and inform future efforts to oversample households with uncommon travel behaviors. The measures are sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and positive predictive value (PPV). To illustrate these measures, they were calculated for 10 BE-defined oversampling strata applied post-hoc to a Seattle area household travel survey. Strata with an average block size of <10 acres within a ¼ mile of household residences held the single greatest potential for oversampling households that walk, use transit, and/or bicycle.     

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.     

Enhancing stated preference surveys in transportation research: the contribution of geographic information systems

In this paper we argue that visualization, data management and computational capabilities of geographic information systems (GIS) can assist transportation stated preference research in capturing the contextual complexity of many transportation decision environments by providing respondents with maps and other spatial and non-spatial information in graphical form that enhance respondents' understanding of decision scenarios. We explore the multiple inherent contributions of GIS to transportation stated preference data collection and propose a framework for a GIS-based stated preference survey instrument. We also present the design concepts of two survey prototypes and their GIS implementation for a sample travel mode choice problem.     

三维物探船稳性优化设计

三维物探船因上层建筑面积大、重心位置高,其稳性问题是设计过程中需解决的重要问题。文章以国内首艘完全自主设计的6缆三维物探调查船为例,介绍其稳性优化设计方面的经验。首先对三维物探调查船的特点进行介绍;然后介绍总体布置优化、空船重量重心的控制对稳性的影响;最后分别就完整稳性和破舱稳性的计算特点及优化方法进行分析。该文总结了三维物探调查船的稳性特点和注意事项,为今后设计工作提供指导。     

Freight transportation demand: A survey of recent econometric studies

This paper surveys econometric studies of freight transportation demand which have been published since the mid-1970s. It describes the variables, data sources, and estimation procedures utilized by the studies. In addition, it summarizes their statistical results. The studies included in this survey typically accounted for freight rates and service characteristics (e.g., transit time and reliability). Data sources often varied across the studies.Based on the data they utilized, the surveyed studies are classified as either aggregate or disaggregate. The data in the aggregate studies consist of information on total flows by modes at the regional or national level, while the data in the disaggregate studies pertain to individual shipments. The earlier aggregate studies estimated linear logit models. It has been pointed out that when they are estimated on aggregate data these models are subject to certain shortcomings. To avoid these shortcomings, more recent aggregate studies have estimated flexible forms such as translog functions. The disaggregate studies surveyed in this paper used either logit or probit models.Statistical results often varied with the commodities analyzed, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the findings of the different studies. One finding common to several studies is that freight rates have a significant impact on shipment decisions. This paper discusses certain theoretical and empirical limitations of the surveyed studies. It also offers suggestions for future research in freight transport demand. Freight demand models can be used to examine various effects of the recent deregulation in freight transportation.     

沙漠铁路勘察设计中主导风向的判断方法

研究目的:我国有很多铁路穿过沙漠地区,为了保证铁路的安全运营,各种防沙工程必不可少。在防沙工程勘察设计中,主导风向的判断尤为重要。现实中,很多沙漠铁路穿越的无人区气象资料不够全面,不能反映防沙工程设计地段的主导风向。本文讨论的通过分析铁路沿线沙丘形态判断主导风向的方法可以为气象资料缺乏地区的防风防沙工程设计提供帮助。研究结论:总结了一种通过分析沙丘形态判断主导风向的方法。在确定沙丘类型及沙丘走向的基础上,判定主导风向一般为从比较缓的迎风坡吹向比较陡的落沙坡。以塔克拉玛干沙漠为例说明并验证了本方法的可行性,可为新建沙漠铁路和铁路防沙工程勘察提供很好的帮助。另外,沙丘形态的塑造还受风速大小的影响,其中的详细关系有待深入研究。     

国际项目勘察设计工作探索

研究目的:随着中国基础设施公司拓展境外市场的步伐加快,国际勘察设计项目越来越多。面临国际项目不同国家、不同标准、不同语言的问题,国内设计院如何应对并尽快熟悉国际市场运作模式、技术要领,是摆在面前并必须逐一解决的。在分析国内设计院参与国际项目概况基础上,本文针对国内设计院现有境外项目面临的问题、拥有的机遇,从9个方面提出做好境外项目勘察设计工作的建议和措施。研究结论:为了做好境外项目勘察设计工作:(1)应充分利用当前走出去的大好机会,深入了解当地项目背景及相关基础资料基础上,准确把握各项目的功能定位,合理把握技术标准和工程措施,有效控制项目工程投资;(2)苦练内功,加强海外人才市场经营和技术团队建设;(3)熟悉、掌握国际及当地国的相关规范、标准;(4)必要时,可寻求与国际上知名咨询企业联合等。