Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

民办高校系部教学督导工作的探究与实践

教学督导工作要想为人才培养导航护航，适应新时期对人才质量的要求，就必须自我调整，完善，升华。督导体制的建立也是教学督导工作研究的一个方面。很多民办高校形成了由院（一级督导）、系部（二级督导）、学生（三级督导）构成的三级督导体制，并以二级督导和三级督导作为督导工作的主体，充分发挥教师和学生的主观能动性，强调全员参与，建立良好的督导氛围。文中主要针对民办高校系部教学督导的工作方式进行研究和探讨。     

船舶主机机旁自动化系统设计常见问题剖析

提出船舶船舶主机机旁自动化系统设计中几个常见的问题,并对进行剖析,提出改进措施,供设计、生产及检验单位参考,避免类似问题的重复发生。     

过程写作法在英语写作教学中的应用

本文对英语写作教学中使用的过程写作法与成果写作法做了对比。在对比的基础上,笔者分析了过程写作法在写作教学实践中所表现的长处与弊端,并提出如何应对目前英语写作教学中的问题。     

综合交通信息平台 建设运营机制研究

在分析国内外已建交通信息系统和信息平台建设、运营和服务情况的基础上,研究了信息的平台性质与功能定位、建设运营模式和保障机制。提出了3种适合我国现状的信息平台建设运营模式:政府行为型;政府建设、企业运营型;政府引导、企业运作型。研究了各类模式的特点和适用性。     

路基拓宽工程设计方法研究

针对路基拓宽工程的实际问题,基于大量实体工程调研和理论分析,从损坏类型和损坏机理出发,揭示了路基拓宽工程中的4种损坏模式,包括路基结合部剪切开裂、新老路面结合部弯拉开裂、老路基层顶面开裂和新路基层底面开裂,建立了以变坡率为设计指标的路基拓宽设计方法;并遵循变形协调与控制的基本思想,着重提出了路基拓宽工程处治措施的选择流程,继而采用有限元计算和室内模拟试验的方法,对新老路基结合面处治、拓宽路基填料及压实度控制、路基加筋、支档结构等多种处治措施的处治机理、效果和设计施工要点进行了总结。各项研究成果对路基拓宽工程中处治措施的选择、设计和施工具有重要的借鉴和指导意义。     

曲率模态和神经网络在损伤识别中的应用

以连续梁为例，通过曲率模态及改进后的模态置信准则联合确定损伤位置，并使用神经网络判定各损伤处的损伤程度。数值模拟考虑了梁不同位置及不同程度损伤情况，研究了运用曲率模态和模态置信准则进行损伤和损伤位置的识别，分析了各自方法的优缺点，通过两种方法的联合运用，使损伤位置识别准确、合理，并且说明了1阶曲率模态的局部参数是损伤程度识别较优的网络输入量，最后运用神经网络识别损伤程度。     

A macroscopic theory for unsignalized intersections

The following paper presents a dynamic macroscopic model for unsignalized intersections which accounts for time-limited disruptions in the minor stream flow, even in free-flow conditions when the average flow demand is satisfied. It introduces a deterministic fictive traffic light to represent an average alternating sequence of available and busy time periods for insertion depending on the major stream flow. Two allocation schemes of the total outflow during green periods are developed to model the influence or non-influence of the minor stream over the major stream flow. The aggregation of the resulting dynamic flow variations gives relevant capacity values. Moreover, the model predicts accurate average vehicle delay and queue length estimates compared to theoretical and empirical data. It has three easy-to-measure parameters and can be integrated into a dynamic macroscopic simulation tool for urban networks.     

车轮防抱死制动滑移模式控制律的理论研究

本文通过建立轮制动时的力学模型，运用现代控制理论中的滑移模式控制方法，对汽车防抱死制动控制律进行了理论分析与研究。     

模态分析方法在发动机结构改进中的应用

模态分析，是获得一个复杂的结构或机构本身所固有的传递函数的一种方法。它可用于结构设计或结构改进的整体评价。以某一四缸发动机的结构改进为例，阐述了模态分析法的实际应用。从模态分析结果看出，对发动机附件连续块结构作微小改进，就可使发动机机体在上下方面的振动得到明显改善。