泛系理论与应用:治学成才、泛系逻辑与交通问题

泛系就是一种广义的交通网。具体一些说,泛系理论及应用是学科与技术群落内外的一种广义的交通、通信与联络网络,是许多学科与技术的概括或再概括,交缘或再交缘,横断或再横断,综合或再综合。我们现在理解的泛系理论与应用是一种宏微兼顾、多层网络型的跨学科新研究,侧重从关系、关系转化、泛对称与充分可观控建模(四侧重)来研究一般事物机理。广义系统与泛系概念(一般跨学科的具有方法论意义的概念)及其应用(三对象)。本文除简介它的框架外,专谈一些与治学成才、泛序逻辑与交通学有关的问题。     

小公共汽车——我国民众的选择——论短途客运的合理模式

小型公共汽车近几年突然兴起,是因为它符合当前我国的实际需要,为缓解短途客运的难题作出巨大贡献。小型公共汽车相对方便,舒适和经济使之受到民众的欢迎。大公共加小公共互相补充的模式是避免过早出现小汽车泛滥的报复的合理出路。它需要国家宏观决策的支持和引导,更需汽车工业在技术上的扶持。     

Induced traffic and economic appraisal

Economic appraisal of major roads in the UK is based on a set of standard procedures and conventions. A central assumption has been that the volume and pattern of traffic in any given year is independent of the quality of service offered by the network — the fixed trip matrix assumption. Failing to consider induced traffic can have serious consequences for the accuracy and robustness of the measured traffic benefits from road improvements. Assessment of the wider economic benefits of roads, which is an important political imperative for road investment, is also made more difficult. Two conclusions are reached. Variable trip matrix methods need to be introduced for the appraisal of major road schemes, and scheme appraisal needs to be complemented by a more strategic area-wide approach to evaluation. In responding to its advisory committee (SACTRA), the UK Department of Transport has accepted the first of these conclusions and is cautiously favourable to the second.     

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters’ responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers’ behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief–desire–intention agent architecture.     

拟合坐标下河道二维非恒定流计算

本文通过边界贴体坐标,在物理域生成正交曲线网格。该曲线网格具有准确贴合边界及域内网格布置灵活的特点,克服了矩形网格贴合边界较差及计算域长宽比悬殊的困难。通过坐标转换,将复杂域问题转变成规则长方形域问题的求解,并对新坐标系下的方程采用ADI方法进行数值模拟计算。     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

全肺灌洗治疗矽（尘）肺远期疗效的初步探讨

我院１９８６年９月～１９９３年９月期间，共为２６７例各期矽（尘）肺患者施行全肺灌洗术。通过对其中可获取的部份资料进行总结、配对研究及随访观察，探讨其远期疗效。初步结果显示：全肺灌洗能减轻病人的症状，延缓矽肺病情的进展。且对早期矽肺施行全肺灌洗更为有效。     

综合交通枢纽道路交通设计关键技术问题的探讨

大型综合交通枢纽具有建设规模大、换乘交通方式多、交通组织复杂、分期实施建设预留等特点,如何合理地进行道路交通组织设计、方便快捷的实现各种交通方式的换乘,是枢纽道路交通设计的关键技术问题。该文以北京南站的道路交通设计为例,在交通枢纽的规划设计建设过程中,本着"因地制宜、以人为本、倡导公共交通、可持续发展"的设计理念,重点是在局促的用地条件下解决各种交通衔接,建设多交通方式人性化的换乘设施、缩短换乘距离、改善换乘环境,方便公共交通,同时做好配套外部交通基础设施建设及分期预留。     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.