枢纽实际调度运行下赣江石虎塘枢纽—峡江枢纽间河段水文特征参数研究

在赣江石虎塘枢纽—峡江枢纽两坝间的长河段，因峡江枢纽库区防护问题，近年来枢纽坝上实际运行水位远低于设计运行水位，导致两坝间河段水位整体降低，进而引发诸多问题，如两坝间大多涉水工程因设计阶段设计水位选取偏差导致运营期无法正常使用等。采用长河段一维数值模拟方法，根据峡江枢纽实际调度运行方案，对洪中枯期多级特征流量及峡江枢纽对应坝前实际运行水位组合下河道水面线进行计算；对两坝间河段沿程水位、河道比降进行计算分析，并选取各组回水曲线上、下包络线作为研究河段现阶段沿程设计参考水位。研究成果可为研究河段涉水工程设计提供水文特征参考资料。     

Determination of t8/5 cooling times for underwater local dry welding of steel

Knowledge of thermal history is the basic condition for studying the structure - properties of welded joints. The determinant of thermal history is the thermal cycle, whose in-situ measurements are still a big challenge. Water as the welding environment complicates this issue even more. The article presents a method to determine an equation for calculating t_8/5 cooling times for underwater gas metal arc welding of unalloyed steels using the local dry cavity method. The work uses the contact method of temperature measurements with the use of thermocouples to obtain the temperature changes of the points of welded joints covered by the thermal field. On this basis, the values of the t_8/5 cooling times were determined. A regression analysis of the Response Surface Method was used to determine the equation, which resulted in a second-order model with interactions. Statistically significant factors were determined (thickness of welded elements and heat input value) and the model veracity was confirmed as the assumptions of normality and homogeneity of variance (homoscedasticity) of the residuals were met. The t_8/5 cooling time values depend on the thickness of the welded elements and heat input value in a nonlinear way. In terms of the test conditions, the cooling times ranged from 3.0 to 7.7 s. The equation allowed for the calculation of t_8/5 cooling times during underwater welding of unalloyed steels using the local dry cavity method based on the variability of the experimental conditions with satisfactory accuracy.     

基于HOTTEL日照辐射模型的船体温度变形预报方法

基于HOTTEL日照辐射模型,提出计及日照因素影响的船体温度变形预报方法,根据赤纬角和太阳时角等参数计算船体表面日照辐射强度,与二维稳态热传导理论和薄壁梁弯曲理论结合,计算船体梁水平和垂向弯曲变形。以某典型超大型油船为例,计算不同季节考虑日照辐射的船体变形,预报结果与有限元计算结果在夏季和冬季分别相差约3.97%和14.29%,满足工程应用要求。     

建成环境对行人交通事故严重程度的非线性影响

为探索建成环境对行人交通事故的影响并为行人事故预防提供理论依据，本文以建成环境“5D”要素为基础，围绕土地利用、城市设计和交通系统这3个维度构建昼夜建成环境指标体系，基于轻度梯度提升机构建昼-夜间行人交通事故严重程度模型，探究城市建成环境对行人交通事故严重程度的影响机制，结合SHAP(Shapley Additive Explanation)归因分析方法揭示两者之间的非线性关系，并以深圳市为例进行实证分析。结果表明：建成环境对行人交通事故的影响效应存在显著的时段异质性；昼间行人交通事故严重程度主要受人行道可达性、地铁站可达性及学校邻近度等因素的影响；夜间行人交通事故严重程度主要受人行道可达性、娱乐兴趣点(POI)指标及道路照明条件等因素的影响。建成环境对行人交通事故严重程度存在显著的非线性影响。昼间时段学校邻近度介于[0, 3]km时，地铁站可达性小于1km时，对行人事故严重程度有较大抬升作用；夜间时段娱乐POI可达性小于0.5km时，对行人事故严重程度有抬升作用；不论昼夜，人行道可达性对行人事故严重程度均有压降作用，且临街院门密度低的区域行人事故严重程度较 高。昼-夜间模型均表现出优秀的效果，分类准确率分别为96.38%和92.08%。     

Stability of submarine bi-material pipeline-liner system with novel polyhedral composites subjected to thermal and mechanical loading fields

This study is concerned with the thermal and mechanical instability behaviors of composite novel liners encased in deteriorated pipelines. A liner may contain many connected segments, and two adjacent segments may become disconnected after long years of service. In such a case, the single disconnected segment may reduce to a ring. An innovative polyhedral configuration is introduced to improve the bending stiffness of the composite ring that is confined by the pipeline. The radius and bending rigidity of the ring are simplified analytically to facilitate the derivation of the critical buckling load. By employing the classical shell criteria, and defining an admissible displacement function, the expression of the potential energy function is obtained with only two unknown parameters. Taking the first derivative of the energy function to the two unknowns respectively generates two equilibrium equations. By solving the two equations, the analytical buckling load is obtained for a composite polyhedral ring in a thermal variational field. Then, two comparisons are taken between the present analytical predictions and results from elsewhere, and good agreements are obtained. An amplification coefficient is defined as the ratio between the buckling load of the polyhedral and circular rings. Finally, parametric evaluations indicate the amplification coefficient reduces with the increase of thickness-to-radius ratio, the increase of the number of sides, and the increase of the temperature variation, respectively. Therefore, a polyhedral ring with a low thickness-to-radius ratio is recommended in engineering applications.     

钢-混凝土组合梁桥的温度梯度作用——地域差异与等值线地图

为研究组合梁桥温度梯度作用取值的地域差异性，搜集了全国839个气象站的长期历史气象数据，建立了全国91个辐射气象站（有太阳辐射历史数据）太阳辐射预测的Bahel模型，补充了748个常规气象站（无太阳辐射历史数据）各23年的太阳日辐射总量数据。在这些气象数据的基础上，提出了温度作用代表值等值线地图的“逐层绘制法”，该方法首先采用有限元温度场长期计算和气象相关性经验公式分别得到91个辐射气象站和748个常规气象站的温度作用样本数据，随后基于广义帕累托分布（GP分布）的超阈值模型求得各气象站的温度作用代表值，最后，采用空间插值方法绘制各温度作用代表值的等值线地图。采用上述方法，绘制了组合梁桥温度梯度升温模式1、升温模式2和降温模式中各温差代表值的等值线地图。研究结果表明：Bahel模型在中国范围内具有很好的适用性，可用于太阳辐射数据的准确预测和补充；中国组合梁桥各温差存在显著的地域差异性，最大可达到27.89℃，若在一个较大的区域内选取一恒定温差作用取值会明显低估了这种地域差异性；“逐层绘制法”概念清晰，操作方便，是进行温度作用等值线地图绘制的有效方法；所绘制的50年回归期温差代表值等值线地图，可用于全国范围内组合梁桥温度梯度作用的准确取值，所提供的温差数据具有概率统计意义，较现行规范更能满足极限状态设计法的基本要求，对于中国组合梁桥的精细化设计和规范体系的补充具有重要价值。