Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

山区公路选线关键问题探讨

以山西临汾某新建二级公路为例,总结一些经验和教训,提出几点山区公路选线需要注意的问题。     

宁波轨道交通高架线综合降噪效果测试与分析

宁波轨道交通1号线一期工程高架线开展了无声屏障、全封闭声屏障、全封闭声屏障+梯形轨枕和全封闭声屏障+道床垫浮置式整体道床工况下的噪声对比测试试验.在各测量断面处布置7个噪声测点,并得到12.5～20000 Hz频段的噪声声压级与频谱曲线,分析各工况下噪声频谱特性与降噪效果.结果表明:仅采用全封闭声屏时,噪声源强处降噪效果最佳,且降噪效果随水平距离的增大呈衰减趋势;在全封闭声屏障的基础上采用梯形轨枕或道床垫浮置式整体道床后各测点(测点l除外)处降噪效果进一步增大,减振轨道确保了全封闭声屏障的降噪效果;减振轨道能有效减小桥梁结构噪声,但同时也增大了轮轨噪声;全封闭声屏障+道床垫浮置式整体道床的降噪效果优于全封闭声屏障+梯形轨枕.     

信息化时代武器装备电磁兼容技术发展趋势

在C4ISR系统EMC和防护,EMC“预测分析法”设计与控制,电磁环境效应(E3)验证与评估及防护技术,频谱管理,以及EMC新技术、新材料、新器件开发应用等五个方面论述当前EMC技术的发展趋势。     

洋山港建设时期海域通道冲淤变化特征分析

洋山深水港区是由大、小洋山南、北两支岛链组成,形成东窄西宽面向杭州湾开口的喇叭状水域,文章结合洋山港建设以来现场实测水文、地形资料,分析了1998～2007年洋山海域通道内地形冲淤演变情况,将洋山港通道内地形变化特征概括为:随着边界的变化,地形冲淤调整迅速;南北格局呈现出"南淤北冲"的规律;长时间尺度来看,近期地形总体趋于相对平衡,略有冲刷;短时间上看,年内冲淤变化大。为洋山港港区进一步的规划方案论证提供基本依据。     

An analysis of trends in passenger and freight transport energy consumption in India

This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumption in the transport sector in India. The pattern of energy consumption and their causes for change are benchmarked against select countries. A mathematical model that decomposes changes in energy consumption to various factors has been used. The changes in the energy consumption are attributed to growth in transport volume, structural change or modal shift, and energy intensity. The analysis is conducted for passenger and freight transport separately. Results indicate that the growth in transport volume has been the main cause for increase in energy consumption for both passenger and freight transport in India despite the decline in energy intensity of various transport modes. Though not surprising for a growing economy like India, this poses a challenge for the future. Currently, India is a low carbon economy.     

韩江北桥主桥力学性能分析

应用大型有限元程序MIDAS/Civil,建立了韩江北桥主桥整体的空间有限元计算模型,根据钢管混凝土统一理论计算了各桥跨拱肋单元的截面特性,采用刚度、质量等效原则对复杂桥面板进行了简化模拟。依据桥梁设计规范要求对该桥梁成桥阶段的静力性能进行了详细计算。计算结果表明,当桥梁某跨上布置有汽车荷载时,其余各桥跨是否布置有汽车荷载,对该桥跨竖拱拱肋及桥面系横梁内力、变形结果影响较小。因此,在桥梁设计计算中,可大大减少作用效应组合的数量,在进行桥梁整体性能计算做作用效应最不利组合时,为简化设计计算,可仅考虑汽车荷载沿全桥各桥跨布置这一种典型情况参与组合即可计算得到足够精确的计算结果。本文计算结果已为韩江北桥主桥设计提供依据,并对同类桥梁结构设计也具有重要的参考价值。     

连续刚构箱梁桥的剪力滞效应分析

根据一座单箱三室连续刚构组合桥梁,考虑桩-土相互作用分别建立了变截面三维梁单元和三维实体、板壳单元组合两种有限元模型,分析了桥梁在均布荷载和集中荷载作用下的剪力滞效应,并讨论了两种计算模型对动力特性的影响。结果表明,在均布荷载与集中荷载作用下箱梁的剪力滞效应明显不同,对于地震时程反应分析而言,采用变截面三维梁单元模型计算效率较高。所得的分析结果对指导这类桥梁的设计具有重要的工程实用价值。     

交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析

运用投入产出模型定量分析了公路交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。拉动作用主要表现为公路建设投资所产生的直接、间接和诱导经济效益,其总和为公路建设投资的乘数效应,可分别用产出乘数、GDP乘数和就业乘数来测算。分析测算了我国近年来公路建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。估算结果表明,(1)公路建筑业对其他部门的波及影响程度大于各部门的平均影响水平;(2)拉动作用在1998年最为显著,自1999年开始,公路投资拉动经济增长的百分比呈逐年上升的趋势。     

Analysing Demand for Suburban Trips: A Mixed RP/SP Model with Latent Variables and Interaction Effects

We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present. The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion, in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service.