船舶结构疲劳强度校核研究现状及我国的进展

对考虑腐蚀、疲劳损伤影响下船体结构可靠性分析层面的研究现状进行梳理和概述。通过综述发现：近年来,船体结构可靠性分析的对象已由拟建船体向现役船体结构方向扩展,且研究重心开始由腐蚀、疲劳损伤单一影响下的可靠性分析向两者交互作用影响下的可靠性分析方向发展。未来开展腐蚀、疲劳损伤下船体结构可靠性研究工作的重点将主要体现在以下4个方面：1）点蚀损伤船体结构破坏机理及对应的评估方法研究;2）腐蚀、疲劳损伤交互作用下的船体结构破坏机理研究;3）基于有限的实船损伤勘验数据,开展合理、可行的可靠性评估方法研究,进行船体结构全寿命周期内综合损伤下的可靠性分析;4）建立不同服役环境、服役期限的实船腐蚀、疲劳损伤数据库。     

大型货运车辆生态驾驶及节油潜力评估

改善驾驶行为、推广生态驾驶是未来降低机动车辆燃油消耗和污染排放的重要潜在方式.分析由车辆远程在线监控技术(OBD)获取的199辆大型货车在观测的4 d内的位置、速度、油耗等微观运行状态的逐秒数据,提出判定急加速、过急加速、急减速、过急减速和超长怠速等5种不良驾驶行为的统计方法,并建立面板数据固定效应回归模型分析5种不良驾驶行为对大型货车油耗的影响,进而定量评估改善不良驾驶行为的节油潜力.研究结果表明,超长怠速和过急减速行为会显著增加大型货车的油耗,减少超长怠速时间和过急减速行为的节油潜力分别可达2.6%和3.8%.     

城市轨道交通新建线路对沿线住宅价格增值的时空效应

定量分析城市轨道交通对沿线土地价值的影响,是通过土地价值捕获将外部效益内部化, 解决中国新型城镇化过程中城市轨道交通财务可持续的关键问题。本文在开源数据环境下,获 取2011—2016年北京市二手房交易数据,采用特征价格模型(HPM)分析北京城市轨道交通新建 线路对沿线住宅价格增值的时空效应。研究表明：与全局常参数的多元线性回归模型(MLR)、空 间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)和空间杜宾模型(SDM)相比,局部变参数的地理加权回归 模型(GWR)拟合效果更优,可以更好地消除残差的空间效应,刻画轨道交通与土地价值关系的空 间异质性。城市轨道交通带来的可达性提升对沿线80%以上住宅小区的房价具有显著的正效 应,住宅价格增值比率随地铁站距离递远递减,且具有显著的空间异质性。轨道交通对住宅价格 的影响在空间上具有网络化效应,新建线路不仅会改变周边房价,对城轨网络其他位置的住宅也 具有影响。城市轨道交通对住宅价格的影响范围为1 km,在该范围内,住宅价格受到的增值效应 在 2011—2016 年基本稳定,约为 3%;受新线直接影响区域的住宅价格会产生相对更大的提升 (0.02%~0.22%)。     

Distinguishing the land use effects of road pricing based on the urban form attributes

This paper studies the effects of road pricing on land use under different development scenarios (business as usual scenario and transit oriented development scenario) by a quantitative method, which combines the integrated land use and transport interaction model (TRANUS model) with the scenario-planning techniques. Moreover, in order to further analyze the differences of the land use effects of road pricing on traffic analysis zones (TAZs) with different urban form attributes, a quantitative classification method combining factor analysis and cluster analysis is then used to quantitatively classify TAZs. The results demonstrate that the effects of road pricing on the land use of a specific region depend on the urban form attributes of the region. The higher the densities of employments and population, and better street design (high densities of street and intersections) and public transportation condition, the less the region is negatively affected by road pricing, and vice versa. More importantly, rail transit can alleviate the negative impact of road pricing on commercial development and population concentration of the region. Therefore, before introducing a road pricing policy, it is necessary to develop public transport system, especially rail transit.     

The impact of Low Emission Zones on particulate matter concentration and public health

A common policy for reducing particulate matter concentrations in the European Union is the introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZs), which may only be entered by vehicles meeting predefined emission standards. This paper examines the effectiveness of LEZs for reducing PM₁₀ levels in urban areas in Germany and quantifies the associated health impacts from reduced air pollution within the zones. We employ a fixed effects panel data model for daily observations of PM₁₀ concentrations from 2000 to 2009 and control, inter alia, for local meteorological conditions and traffic volume. We apply the regression outputs to a concentration response function derived from the epidemiological literature to calculate associated health impacts of the introduction of LEZs in 25 German cities with 3.96 million inhabitants. Associated uncertainties are accounted for in Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that the introduction of LEZs has significantly reduced inner city PM₁₀ levels. We estimate the total mean health impact from reduced air pollution in 2010 due to the introduction of stage 1 zones to be ∼760 million EUR in the 25 LEZ cities in the sample, whereas total mean health benefits are ∼2.4 billion EUR for the more stringent stage 2 zones when applied in the same cities.     

基于实验的二维八边形液舱晃荡比尺效应研究

文章针对二维八边形液舱晃荡冲击的比尺效应开展了实验研究。实验根据弗劳德相似准则分别选择1:1原型液舱与1:2和1:3两个比尺模型液舱,在横荡单次冲击外激激励的作用下,考虑80%危险载液率分别对流体冲击侧壁、上斜板和顶板时的晃荡荷载与冲击波形进行了比尺效应对比分析。分析结果表明,冲击过程中,如果原型液舱和缩比模型液舱中对应冲击壁面处于流体中,包裹的气泡越少,冲击压力峰值由模型还原到原型时更接近于原型实验实测值;若考虑整个冲击过程中的流场形态,应尽可能选择大比尺液舱来开展晃荡模型实验。     

Specification and estimation of a spatially and temporally autocorrelated seemingly unrelated regression model: application to crash rates in China

In transportation studies, variables of interest are often influenced by similar factors and have correlated latent terms (errors). In such cases, a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model is normally used. However, most studies ignore the potential temporal and spatial autocorrelations across observations, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In contrast, the SUR model proposed in this study also considers these correlations, making the model more behaviorally convincing and applicable to circumstances where a three-dimensional correlation exists, across time, space, and equations. An example of crash rates in Chinese cities is used. The results show that incorporation of spatial and temporal effects significantly improves the model. Moreover, investment in transportation infrastructure is estimated to have statistically significant effects on reducing severe crash rates, but with an elasticity of only −0.078. It is also observed that, while vehicle ownership is associated with higher per capita crash rates, elasticities for severe and non-severe crashes are just 0.13 and 0.18, respectively; much lower than one. The techniques illustrated in this study should contribute to future studies requiring multiple equations in the presence of temporal and spatial effects.

经历剪切变形历史的岩石节理表面形貌变化

采用巴西劈裂法制成四组不同岩性的人工节理面,利用RYL–600岩石剪切流变仪对节理进行不同垂直压应力下的剪切试验,并运用TALYSURF CLI 2000扫描仪在每次剪切前后对节理面进行扫描,计算多个描述节理面形貌特征的三维参数值,通过三维参数值的变化定量分析节理面细观形貌的变化。研究结果表明:节理面抗剪强度的变化与节理面形貌变化有紧密联系,经历四次剪切作用后,节理面整体高度略微降低,各点间的高差缩小;峰点密度减小,节理面的凹凸程度降低;节理表面形态的各向异性程度降低,节理面整体的倾斜程度降低;对于节理面的同一变化,不同参数反映的角度和变化的幅度都不同,随垂直应力的增加,各次剪切作用后节理面的形貌变化量逐渐减小,形貌趋于平整。     

瞬变电磁与地质雷达在注浆效果检验中的应用

通过介绍注浆原理并对常规注浆效果检验方法进行比较,阐述了瞬变电磁方法和地质雷达方法引入到注浆效果检验中的必要性,进一步介绍了瞬变电磁和地质雷达的工作原理和理论支持,从而提出“物探方法和钻探方法相互补充,多种方法相互修正,理论探测与实际开挖相互验证”的综合性注浆效果评价机制,最后结合相关工程说明此机制的应用效果.     

地铁车辆客室照明集中供电的安全性设计

介绍了在地铁车辆集中供电客室照明系统设计过程中,设计人员运用故障模式影响分析(FMEA)技术,对该系统设计方案安全性的改进过程。通过对初始设计方案中主要部件进行FMEA,识别了这些设备中可能会导致安全隐患的单点故障。根据FMEA的结果,对设计方案进行了必要的改进,从而保证了设计方案的安全性。