发动机轴承故障诊断方法的研究

针对EMD（Empirical Mode Decomposition）方法中存在的端点效应和IMF（Intrinsic Mode Function）虚假分量过多的问题,提出了基于互相关的EMD方法。首先,对非平稳性信号进行互相关延拓消除端点效应;其次,对消除端点效应的信号进行EMD分解,并将分解后的IMF与原信号作互相关,保留与原信号最相关的IMF;最后,作出信号的Hilbert边际谱,识别信号的频域特征。仿真结果表明该方法能够有效地克服端点效应,分离出真实IMF。将其应用于船舶发动机滚动轴承故障诊断中,能有效地识别出故障特征。     

疏水表面流体流动特性的格子Boltzmann方法模拟

采用格子Boltzmann方法研究了微形貌对固体表面润湿性的影响,在此基础上进一步模拟了具有微形貌的疏水表面通道内的流体流动,从法向速度、剪应力、滑移速度等角度分析了疏水表面的流场特性,揭示了疏水表面滑移流动的产生机制。结果表明,疏水表面的滑移流动是由低表面能作用和微形貌共同引起的。具有微形貌的疏水表面比光滑疏水表面具有更好的减阻效果,原因在于微形貌能够驻留气体,形成的气液自由剪切面加剧了疏水表面的滑移流动,最大滑移速度可以达到主流平均速度的50%左右。     

The effects of lighting on driver's injury severity at highway‐rail grade crossings

This study estimates the safety effect of illumination on accidents at highway‐rail grade crossings in the United States, using data from exhaustive data from Federal Railroad Administration database covering the period 2002–2011. Using mixed logit modeling approach, the study explores the determinants of driver injury severity at unlighted highway‐rail grade crossings compared with lighted highway‐rail grade crossings in the United States. Several key issues are explored including availability of relevant highway‐rail grade crossing accident inventory data; relevant data element structures; specification and estimation of models to estimate driver's injury severity with lighting and without lighting; and techniques to interpret model parameters. Overall, highway‐rail grade crossing lighting improves safety by reducing the probability of high‐level injury severity through improvements in driver's visibility compared with unlighted intersections. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decomposition approach to determining fleet size and structure with network flow effects and demand uncertainty

This paper presents a new methodology to determine fleet size and structure for those airlines operating on hub‐and‐spoke networks. The methodology highlights the impact of stochastic traffic network flow effects on fleet planning process and is employed to construct an enhanced revenue model by incorporating the expected revenue optimization model into fleet planning process. The objective of the model is to find a feasible allocation of aircraft fleet types to route legs using minimum fleet purchasing cost, thus ensuring that the expected fleet profit is maximized subject to several critical resource constraints. By using a linear approximation to the total network revenue function, the fleet planning model with enhanced revenue modeling is decomposed into the nonlinear aspects of expected revenue optimization and the linear aspects of determining fleet size and structure by optimal allocation of aircraft fleet types to route legs. To illustrate this methodology and its economic benefits, an example consisting of 6 chosen aircraft fleet types, 12 route legs, and 57 path‐specific origin‐destination markets is presented and compared with the results found using revenue prorated fleet planning formulation. The results show that the fleet size and structure of the methodology proposed in this paper gain 211.4% improvement in fleet profit over the use of the revenue prorated fleet planning approach. In addition, comparison with the deterministic model reveals that the fleet size and structure of this proposed methodology are more adaptable to the fluctuations of passenger demands. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于实验的二维八边形液舱晃荡比尺效应研究

文章针对二维八边形液舱晃荡冲击的比尺效应开展了实验研究。实验根据弗劳德相似准则分别选择1:1原型液舱与1:2和1:3两个比尺模型液舱,在横荡单次冲击外激激励的作用下,考虑80%危险载液率分别对流体冲击侧壁、上斜板和顶板时的晃荡荷载与冲击波形进行了比尺效应对比分析。分析结果表明,冲击过程中,如果原型液舱和缩比模型液舱中对应冲击壁面处于流体中,包裹的气泡越少,冲击压力峰值由模型还原到原型时更接近于原型实验实测值;若考虑整个冲击过程中的流场形态,应尽可能选择大比尺液舱来开展晃荡模型实验。     

Specification and estimation of a spatially and temporally autocorrelated seemingly unrelated regression model: application to crash rates in China

In transportation studies, variables of interest are often influenced by similar factors and have correlated latent terms (errors). In such cases, a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model is normally used. However, most studies ignore the potential temporal and spatial autocorrelations across observations, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In contrast, the SUR model proposed in this study also considers these correlations, making the model more behaviorally convincing and applicable to circumstances where a three-dimensional correlation exists, across time, space, and equations. An example of crash rates in Chinese cities is used. The results show that incorporation of spatial and temporal effects significantly improves the model. Moreover, investment in transportation infrastructure is estimated to have statistically significant effects on reducing severe crash rates, but with an elasticity of only −0.078. It is also observed that, while vehicle ownership is associated with higher per capita crash rates, elasticities for severe and non-severe crashes are just 0.13 and 0.18, respectively; much lower than one. The techniques illustrated in this study should contribute to future studies requiring multiple equations in the presence of temporal and spatial effects.

物流通道的空间溢出效应检验——基于中国11 条物流通道的实证

以中国11 条物流通道为实证对象,综合测算物流通道技术水平,构造基于地理距 离的空间邻接权重矩阵,检验相关变量的空间自相关性,构建空间杜宾面板数据模型验证了 中国物流通道的空间溢出效应.研究表明：中国物流通道总体上具有显著的正向空间溢出效 应,但从分布于不同空间的物流通道看,长江、沿海、京九、陇海兰新和沪昆物流通道正向空间 溢出效应显著;而京沪、京广和宝昆物流通道研究期内空间溢出效应不显著.我国物流通道的 空间溢出效应具有显著的空间差异,应因地制宜地合理化建设物流通道.     

南汇嘴边滩地形演变及其分析

南汇嘴边滩处于长江口和杭州湾的交接地带,受长江口和杭州湾北岸两股往复性潮流的控制,特定的水动力泥沙环境,决定了南汇嘴边滩长期以来的演变特点:边滩发育基本稳定;边滩外形基本保持不变;主要呈整体向东南方向移动的趋势。根据已有的1998~2005年断面数据资料分析了南汇嘴附近海域近期的地形演变情况,并对其影响因素——动力因素、泥沙絮凝、长江入海水沙变化以及近岸水利工程建设进行了分析。     

船舶结构疲劳强度校核研究现状及我国的进展

对考虑腐蚀、疲劳损伤影响下船体结构可靠性分析层面的研究现状进行梳理和概述。通过综述发现：近年来,船体结构可靠性分析的对象已由拟建船体向现役船体结构方向扩展,且研究重心开始由腐蚀、疲劳损伤单一影响下的可靠性分析向两者交互作用影响下的可靠性分析方向发展。未来开展腐蚀、疲劳损伤下船体结构可靠性研究工作的重点将主要体现在以下4个方面：1）点蚀损伤船体结构破坏机理及对应的评估方法研究;2）腐蚀、疲劳损伤交互作用下的船体结构破坏机理研究;3）基于有限的实船损伤勘验数据,开展合理、可行的可靠性评估方法研究,进行船体结构全寿命周期内综合损伤下的可靠性分析;4）建立不同服役环境、服役期限的实船腐蚀、疲劳损伤数据库。     

考虑多模式失效概率的长下坡路段重型卡车事故预测模型

为挖掘多模式失效概率与长下坡路段重型卡车事故之间的关系,建立了重型卡车在长下坡路段的多模式失效概率与车辆事故之间的关系模型。并针对重型卡车在长下坡路段可能的失效模式,如侧滑、侧翻、视距不足、制动失效,在此基础上建立了多模式失效概率预测模型;通过蒙特卡罗法模拟并求解单模式失效的概率,宽界限法求解失效系统的多模式失效概率;将多模式失效概率作为解释变量与其他道路因素结合,分别建立泊松模型、随机效应泊松模型、随机参数泊松模型,将多模式失效概率与重型卡车事故建立函数关系;对比3种模型的拟合优度指标,优选出最优事故预测模型,用来挖掘重型卡车事故与多模式失效概率之间的关系。以华盛顿州71段长下坡10年的重型卡车事故数据及道路设计数据进行方法验证。结果表明：随机参数泊松模型与随机效应泊松模型的拟合优度相差较小,二者均优于泊松模型;当考虑多模式失效概率时,平曲线半径、纵坡坡度、超高对重型卡车事故的影响均不显著,即三者的影响被削弱,尤其是平曲线半径和超高,多模式失效概率的弹性(0.239)远大于二者的弹性(平曲线半径和超高的弹性分别仅为0.097和0.002);重型卡车的事故与多模式失效概率近似线性关系,且截距不为0。即多模式失效概率可用于道路安全分析的表征指标,但与事故概率不等价。