世界航运人才需求与中国外派海员预测

根据世界航运人才的需求状况,利用航运经济增长模型,测算出2010年世界航海人才的需求量,并运用多种方案预测出2010年中国外派航海人员的数量,以此为中国有关高校的航运人才的培养和相关国际人才中介服务公司的发展提供依据。     

全国水运货运量预测的灰色系统模型

介绍灰色控制系统的基本理论，并给出了全国水运货运量预测的GM（1，1）模型，可供水运部门制定规划时参考。     

基于模糊因素的铁路旅客满意度的综合评价

从铁路旅客运输自身特性及旅客满意度评价特性两方面出发,通过分析铁路旅客满意度的影响因素,确定评估旅客满意度的评价指标体系。并采用模糊综合评价方法,建立了铁路旅客满意度模糊综合评价模型,结合铁路旅客问卷调查结果,对目前铁路旅客满意度水平进行了综合评价,从而为提高和改进铁路运输服务质量和服务水平、提高铁路运输的综合竞争力提供参考依据。     

引航员与船长间信息交流方式研究

引航员与船长之间在引航过程中的信息交流是至关重要的,它是达到安全引航的必要手段之一。以前,引航员上驾驶台后利用短暂的车、舵命令来了解船舶性能,与船长交流很少。事实上,他们之间各怀特长,引而不发,这给应急状态时的协同操作带来安全隐患。为使引航工作的安全更有保障,目前上海港引航管理站推出《船长/引航员信息交流卡》突出强调了信息交流在引航工作中的重要性。     

Aggregate expenditure elasticity for transport and communication in Australia

For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D²) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

大通道公路项目综合运输分析与应用

随着经济和交通运输的发展,运输结构和路网结构已经或正在发生巨大的变化,使公路建设项目前期工作交通分析变得越来越复杂。结合具体项目提出了大通道公路项目宜采用综合运输分析方法,应用于具体项目将会使交通分析与预测更加准确和合理,对今后类似的大通道项目起到一定的指导作用。     

Managing transportation during highway reconstruction: A recommended process

Major highway reconstruction can cause significant disruptions to existing travel patterns and economic activity. Reducing these impacts on travelers, shippers, businesses and residents requires that innovative and effective transportation management actions be developed and implemented. This paper reports the major findings and recommendations of a research study on managing transportation during highway, reconstruction. The primary objectives of the study were

铁路通过小型采空区的综合勘察与线路优化

在地形地质条件复杂地段,地质选线对铁路工程具有重要的意义。以某铁路线路通过一小型采空区为例,在线路无法绕避的情况下,采用综合手段对采空区进行探查。先在现场地质测绘调查的基础上针对性布置物探测线探查,再根据探查结果合理安排钻探对探查结果进一步修正。通过对资料的综合分析,详细绘制采空区范围和规模,对线路方案进行优化调整。现场施工表明综合勘察手段对线路优化具有良好效果。     

大连地铁2号线地下车站噪声调查与分析

列车在行进中及进站和出站时伴随着滚动噪声和制动啸叫噪声等,使得车内和站内噪声加剧,对乘客的身心健康造成一定影响。通过对大连地铁2号线噪声进行调查与测试分析,找到了引起噪声过高的主要因素,得出车内噪声符合标准,但站台噪声超过标准要求。针对监测数据及分析结果,提出了对应的减振降噪措施,为地铁建设工程提供参考。