A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Conformity: How VMT-speed distributions can affect mobile emission inventories

Transportation conformity is a US regulatory process that requires that transportation modeling be integrated with air quality modeling. Consequently, every change to either modeling process is undertaken with great scrutiny by the regional governments, who have to use the models for demonstrating conformity. This paper explores the "trip versus link debate," which stems from the fact that the standard travel demand models used by most metropolitan planning organizations are primarily link oriented, while the air quality models have been primarily trip oriented. Using the Sacramento region we examine the effects on mobile source emissions inventories when speed-VMT distributions are constructed using the trip and link-based philosophies. The results of our study indicate that trip-based VMT-speed distributions produce consistently lower emissions estimates than the link-based distributions. We use the results to assert that deciding between a trip-based or link-based conformity modeling process involves more than the technical difficulty of changesto the models or the potential political ramifications, it involves assessing which method will provide the most accurate estimates of regional motor vehicle emissions. We also examine ways to think about constructing mobile source emission inventories.     

城市综合交通调查的规范与创新

城市综合交通调查在中国已有30余年的广泛实践,当前的信息化和大数据背景下正历经发展与变革.在分析城市综合交通调查现状问题的基础上,提出制定《城市综合交通体系规划交通调查导则》(以下简称《导则》)的必要性.从目标与总体框架、调查项目分类、术语定义、调查内容与问题选项分类、调查流程规范几个层面对《导则》的主要思想与关键内容进行解析.提出城市综合交通调查未来发展方向应是将信息化技术与传统调查手段结合,提高调查效率与质量,关注信息化手段未能涵盖的交通特征.     

城市交通能耗区的识别及等级划分方法研究

随着社会经济的发展，机动车保有量急剧增长，城市化过程中交通拥堵问题日趋严重，交通能源消耗加剧。为了降低由此带来的损失，需要及时探明路网中交通效率低、能耗高的区域，并采取有效的交通管理措施。通过研究交通状态与能耗的关系，进行相应的交通参数分析，建立能耗区识别及等级划分模型，计算得到3个等级能耗区的界定阈值分别为0．411和0．678。     

Using the built environment to oversample walk,transit, and bicycle travel

Characteristics of the built environment (BE) have been associated with walk, transit, and bicycle travel. These BE characteristics can be used by transportation researchers to oversample households from areas where walk, transit, or bicycle travel is more likely, resulting in more observations of these uncommon travel behaviors. Little guidance, however, is available on the effectiveness of such built environment oversampling strategies. This article presents measures that can be used to assess the effectiveness of BE oversampling strategies and inform future efforts to oversample households with uncommon travel behaviors. The measures are sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and positive predictive value (PPV). To illustrate these measures, they were calculated for 10 BE-defined oversampling strata applied post-hoc to a Seattle area household travel survey. Strata with an average block size of <10 acres within a ¼ mile of household residences held the single greatest potential for oversampling households that walk, use transit, and/or bicycle.     

Multi-step prediction of experienced travel times using agent-based modeling

This paper develops an agent-based modeling approach to predict multi-step ahead experienced travel times using real-time and historical spatiotemporal traffic data. At the microscopic level, each agent represents an expert in a decision-making system. Each expert predicts the travel time for each time interval according to experiences from a historical dataset. A set of agent interactions is developed to preserve agents that correspond to traffic patterns similar to the real-time measurements and replace invalid agents or agents associated with negligible weights with new agents. Consequently, the aggregation of each agent’s recommendation (predicted travel time with associated weight) provides a macroscopic level of output, namely the predicted travel time distribution. Probe vehicle data from a 95-mile freeway stretch along I-64 and I-264 are used to test different predictors. The results show that the agent-based modeling approach produces the least prediction error compared to other state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art methods (instantaneous travel time, historical average and k-nearest neighbor), and maintains less than a 9% prediction error for trip departures up to 60 min into the future for a two-hour trip. Moreover, the confidence boundaries of the predicted travel times demonstrate that the proposed approach also provides high accuracy in predicting travel time confidence intervals. Finally, the proposed approach does not require offline training thus making it easily transferable to other locations and the fast algorithm computation allows the proposed approach to be implemented in real-time applications in Traffic Management Centers.     

Monitoring Human Activity in an Area Dedicated to the Protection of the Endangered Mediterranean Monk Seal

Mediterranean monk seal populations have declined dramatically and survive in subpopulations scattered throughout their original distribution. The National Marine Park of Alonnisos, Northern Sporades is the first marine protected Area dedicated to the protection of the species in the Mediterranean. A Monitoring and Awareness Project has been carried out in the area from 1993 to 2000, the results of which have produced a detailed profile of the human usage pattern of the Park and indicated a significant reduction of illegal activities in the area. The pattern of human usage has enabled the monitoring team to adjust their efforts in the Park over time and provided essential baseline data for future management. The combined monitoring and awareness efforts have contributed significantly to the conservation of the Mediterranean monk seal by successfully protecting pupping sites and reducing human-induced mortality of the species in the area.     

Kerr介质腔中三能级原子与腔场相互作用系统量子保真度

研究了Kerr介质腔中相干态单模场与级联三能级原子共振相互作用系统中量子保真度的演化特性.结果表明,对真空初场,原子、场及系统保真度都呈现调制周期振荡;对不依赖强度的原子-场耦合系统,增大Kerr效应或增强初场强度都能提高原子的量子保真度,在原子量子保真度复苏时区同时提升场和系统的量子保真度,但对依赖强度耦合系统却无此作用.     

热扰动对冻土区片块石路基热状态变化特性的影响研究

随着我国现阶段的公路建设里程不断增长,相较于常规平原地区,高寒冻土区公路建设过程要克服冻土路基带来的各类不良影响。针对热扰动对冻土区片块石路基带来的影响进行深入研究,在分析该区域高等级公路路基状态的过程中,采集片块石路基的温度状态、吸放热状态和冻融循环状态等方面数据,探讨了其热状态变化的整体规律。研究结果显示:片块石路基在冻土区有着很好的热稳定性作用,可实现主动冷却作用;片块石路基能通过加快温差空气间的流通速度,避免热扰动对路基温度产生过于明显的影响,从而减少热扰动所带来的各类路基病害;片块石路基正下方的最大融化深度正逐步提高;片块石路基的阴阳面存在吸放热不平衡的情况,阳面路肩吸放热量达到阴面路肩吸放热量的2.7倍,阳面坡脚吸放热量达到阴面坡脚吸放热量的2.3倍;随着片块石路基阴阳面吸放热不平衡的发展,其对应的阴面冻土升温速度小于阳面冻土,阴面冻土上限发展程度同样小于阳面冻土。     

Activity patterns,time use,and travel of millennials: a generation in transition?

Millennials, defined in this study as those born between 1979 and 2000, became the largest population segment in the United States in 2015. Compared to recent previous generations, they have been found to travel less, own fewer cars, have lower driver’s licensure rates, and use alternative modes more. But to what extent will these differences in behaviour persist as millennials move through various phases of the lifecycle? To address this question, this paper presents the results of a longitudinal analysis of the 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey data series. In early adulthood, younger millennials (born 1988–1994) are found to spend significantly more time in-home than older millennials (born 1979–1985), which indicates that there are substantial differences in activity-time use patterns across generations in early adulthood. Older millennials are, however, showing activity-time use patterns similar to their prior generation counterparts as they age, although some differences – particularly in time spent as a car driver – persist. Millennials appear to exhibit a lag in adopting the activity patterns of predecessor generations due to delayed lifecycle milestones (e.g. completing their education, getting jobs, marrying, and having children) and lingering effects of the economic recession, suggesting that travel demand will resume growth in the future.