排序方式: 共有118条查询结果,搜索用时 109 毫秒
1.
2.
短时交通流预测是提高普通国省道交通运行效率和安全的关键技术之一。普通国省道具有分布地域广、情况复杂的特点,要求短时交通流预测方法具有良好的适应性,然而,针对短时交通流预测算法适应性及其机制的系统性研究尚不多见。选取1种自适应卡尔曼滤波算法,系统分析其适应性和适应机制。获取江苏省徐州市普通国省道路网中8个交通调查站所采集的实际交通流数据开展实例分析,结果表明:在不同的交通流量水平下,所选算法均值预测的平均绝对百分比误差在10.98%~15.92%之间,区间预测的无效覆盖率在5.21%~6.15%之间,表明所选的自适应卡尔曼滤波算法在不同交通流水平下都具有良好的预测性能;对所选算法的参数进行分析发现,算法参数能够随交通流水平的变化而自动调整,具有良好的自适应机制;所选算法能够在预测初期实现有效的性能调整和收敛。
相似文献3.
4.
5.
以云南山区双车道公路1740起碰撞事故数据为基础,将事故数据分为机动车与机动车、机动车与摩托车、机动车与非机动车3种类型,事故严重度划分为仅财产损失、轻伤、重伤或死亡事故3个等级,分别用部分优势比模型和有序Logit模型建立3类机动车碰撞事故严重度分析模型,对比分析不同等级事故的显著影响因素和模型的预测准确率,分析部分... 相似文献
6.
7.
包西铁路义南洛河特大桥主桥采用64 m双线简支箱梁,是目前国内铁路架梁中最大跨度节段拼装预应力混凝土双线简支箱梁。以该桥施工图设计为依据,介绍了64 m双线简支箱梁的构造、设计及施工方法。 相似文献
8.
采用元胞自动机模型对具有公交线路的双车道混合交通系统进行建模和模拟分析. 通过绘制系统的基本图和右车道上车辆占有率分析了公交线路对双车道车流演化特性以及运行效率的影响,并针对港湾式和非港湾式两种停靠方式的优劣进行比较. 研究结果显示,系统中存在四个车流演化特性不同的密度区域;系统中公交车数量增多会导致最大流量降低;港湾式停靠站的公交线路系统对车流的影响小,系统流量大,优于非港湾式停靠站的公交线路系统. 相似文献
9.
Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones. 相似文献
10.
借鉴以往的研究成果,在分析双车道公路超车特性的基础上,将超车过程划分为超车意愿、超车条件、超车行为、超车中止强制回车4个步骤,建立了超车模型。选用超车率、超车次率和区间平均速度作为验证指标来对比仿真结果与实测数据,对比结果符合误差范围,证明了模型的有效性。应用模型进行仿真试验,通过分析得到的超车率一流量关系,发现该关系曲线与实际情况相吻合且呈现出两个阶段,前一阶段随着双车道公路流量的增加,超车率逐渐增大至最大值。后一阶段流量增加而超车率不断下降,当流量达到2900pcu/h以后,超车率几乎为零,以此作为临界点,推荐我国标准2级双车道公路的双向通行能力为2900pcu/h。 相似文献