非线性滤波器在动力定位船位估计中的应用

针对动力定位船舶在作业过程中因丢失GPS位置测量信号,从而导致动力定位系统不能正常工作,而使船舶偏离作业点的问题,设计了一种非线性滤波器,它可以利用以前保存的历史数据进行船舶位置的实时估计,从而使船舶在一定的时间内可以维持在作业点附近,当重新获得GPS信号后,又可以快速地进入正常工作状态。为了使历史数据能够更准确地反映船舶的实时位置,利用历史数据相对于作业点的平均偏差对历史数据进行了补偿。最后给出了此非线性滤波器在船舶仿真系统中的仿真曲线,分析表明在有滤波器的情况下,船舶真实位置估计的准确度比没有滤波器的情况下有明显的改善。     

融合卡尔曼滤波的高速公路状态估计误差界限分析

为分析高速公路交通流检测数据质量,本文构建平方流量误差界(Squared Flow Error Bound, SFEB)和扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kalman Filter, EKF)的决策级融合模型SFEB-EKF,在检测器空间覆盖不足情况下,计算检测路段和无检测器路段的交通状态估计误差界限。与SFEB 算法相比,融合模型利用EKF交通状态估计模型估计全路段交通状态,基于得到的估计样本计算全路段交通状态估计误差下界。同时,采用最近邻法(Nearest Neighbor Method, NNM)计算全路段交通状态估计误差上界。应用开源高速公路数据集测试模型,结果表明,与需要输入真实样本的SFEB算法相比,融合模型SFEB-EKF在缺少真实样本情况下,能取得相似的结果且误差保持 在5%以内,不同检测器覆盖率实验下模型表现出良好的稳定性。本文模型通过给出无检测器路段交通状态估计界限,为高速公路交通检测器布设方案提供参考。     

考虑行驶时间不确定性的合乘路径鲁棒优化方法

为应对实际合乘过程中时间不确定性带来的负面影响,本文研究不确定行驶时间下的合乘问题。采用预算不确定集合描述时间变量,引入不确定性水平可调节的预算系数,构建以车辆总里程最短和车辆数最少为目标的合乘路径鲁棒优化模型。并设计两阶段算法求解,第1阶段以两乘客间的可行合乘路径为基础,从车辆总里程节省率和乘客时间窗匹配灵活性两方面设计公式量化合乘匹配机会,以匹配机会为权重构建乘客图网络并聚类乘客需求;第2阶段设计以顺序插入启发式方法构造初始解的禁忌搜索算法求解。案例数据实验结果表明：本文聚类方法能保证优化质量并提高85%以上的计算效率,同时能缩减乘客等车时间和绕行距离;增大预算系数时解的鲁棒性逐渐提高,但会增加10%~40%的车辆数并降低1%~10%的里程节省率;大规模乘客案例和窄时间窗案例的合乘路径对不确定时间的敏感性更高,宽时间窗案例无需增加过多额外车辆和总里程就能达到较高水平的路径鲁棒性。     

A competing Markov model for cracking prediction on civil structures

Cracks on the surface of civil structures (e.g. pavement sections, concrete structures) progress in several formations and under different deterioration mechanisms. In monitoring practice, it is often that cracking type with its worst damage level is selected as a representative condition state, while other cracking types and their damage levels are neglected in records, remaining as hidden information. Therefore, the practice in monitoring has a potential to conceal with a bias selection process, which possibly result in not optimal intervention strategies. In overcoming these problems, our paper presents a non-homogeneous Markov hazard model, with competing hazard rates. Cracking condition states are classified in three types (longitudinal crack, horizontal crack, and alligator crack), with three respective damage levels. The dynamic selection of cracking condition states are undergone a competing process of cracking types and damage levels. We apply a numerical solution using Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of high-order integration of complete likelihood function. An empirical study on a data-set of Japanese pavement system is presented to demonstrate the applicability and contribution of the model.     

Suspension system state estimation using adaptive Kalman filtering based on road classification

This paper provides a new method to solve the problem of suspension system state estimation using a Kalman Filter (KF) under various road conditions. Due to the fact that practical road conditions are complex and uncertain, the influence of the system process noise variance and measurement noise covariance on the estimation accuracy of the KF is first analysed. To accurately estimate the road condition, a new road classification method through the vertical acceleration of sprung mass is proposed, and different road process variances are obtained to tune the system’s variance for the application of the KF. Then, road classification and KF are combined to form an Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) that takes into account the relationship of different road process noise variances and measurement noise covariances under various road conditions. Simulation results show that the proposed AKF algorithm can obtain a high accuracy of state estimation for a suspension system under varying International Standards Organisation road excitation levels.     

Adhesion estimation at the wheel–rail interface using advanced model-based filtering

The railway industry in the UK is currently expanding the use of condition monitoring of railway vehicles. These systems can be used to improve maintenance procedures or could potentially be used to monitor current vehicle running conditions without the use of cost prohibitive sensors. This paper looks at a novel method for the online detection of areas of low adhesion in the wheel/rail contact that cause significant disruption to the running of a network, particularly in the autumn season. The proposed method uses a Kalman–Bucy filter to estimate the creep forces in the wheel–rail contact area; post-processing is then applied to provide information indicative of the actual adhesion level. The algorithm uses data that, in practice, would be available from a set of modest cost inertial sensors mounted on the vehicle bogie and wheel-sets. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated using simulation data from a nonlinear dynamic model of the vehicle and its track interface.     

Contents Index Volume 35 and 36

Active safety systems would benefit from tyre force and friction potential information. Different sensor concepts, including, among others, the EU–funded Apollo–project developed tyre sensor based on optical position detection, are being studied. The sensor can measure tyre carcass deflections with respect to the rim. The carcass deflections can be used to calculate tyre forces and they may be exploited in the estimation of friction potential. The waveforms of the sensor signal are illustrated. The vertical and lateral force estimations are presented with unavoidable compensation parts. The tyre sensor measurements were compared to the measurement–vehicle results and good correlations achieved. Continuing activities are concerned with the estimation of friction potential and the detection of aquaplaning.     

Dynamic demand estimation and microscopic traffic simulation of a university campus transportation network

Abstract

This article documents the authors' experience with the modeling, simulation, and analysis of a university transportation system, using the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS). The processes of data preparation and network coding are described, followed by the algorithm developed to estimate the dynamic 24-hour demand, which includes a procedure for estimating the ‘desirability’ of the different parking lots from readily available data. The dynamic demand estimation algorithm is validated by comparing estimated and observed parking lot occupancies, where it is shown that the algorithm is capable of replicating observed results. Finally, an example is included to demonstrate how the developed model can be used in campus transportation planning. Besides serving as a first case study for using TRANSIMS to model a university campus, the study's contributions include the development of a procedure for parking lot desirability ranking and a practical procedure for estimating dynamic demand on university campuses.     

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.     

融合D-S理论的锅炉人因贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析

针对船用锅炉人因安全性分析中存在的知识不确定性,采用D-S证据理论对多专家信息进行融合并建立考虑人因的贝叶斯网络,得到节点条件概率的区间表示形式.经加权平均后代入贝叶斯网络计算,与面向对象贝叶斯网络和FTA等方法的对比显示,该方法能够更加有效地融合不同专家信息,也更为符合工程实际.