Simulation of Old Urban Residential Area Evolution Based on Complex Adaptive System

On the basis of complex adaptive system theory,this paper proposed an agent-based model of old urban residential area,in which,residents and providers are the two adaptive agents.The behaviors of residents and providers in this model are trained with back propagation and simulated with Swarm software based on environment-rules-agents interaction.This model simulates the evolution of old urban residential area and analyzes the relations between the evolution and urban management with the background of Chaozhou city.As a result,the following are obtained:(1) Simulation without government intervention indicates the trend of housing ageing,environmental deterioration,economic depression,and social filtering-down in old urban residential area.If the development of old urban residential area is under control of developers in market,whose desire is profit maximization,and factors such as social justice,historic and culture value will be ignored.(2) If the government carries out some policies and measures which will perfectly serve their original aims,simulation reveals that old urban residential area could be adapted to environment and keep sustainable development.This conclusion emphasizes that government must act as initiator and program maker for guiding residents and other providers directly in the development of old urban residential area.     

船闸口门区水流结构与连接段航道范围的探讨

从水力学角度和航行条件出发,来认识船闸口门区与连接段的水流结构,探讨连接段的范围。收集概化模型与枢纽物理模型的实验资料,采用归纳、总结和分析对比的方法,对概化和枢纽工程船闸引航道出口的水流结构、形态及回流长度等规律进行总结和讨论,对口门区与连接段的水流与航行条件进行分析。结果表明:概化模型的回流长度l1=7.0b比枢纽模型l1=4.6b要长;连接段的同岸与异岸连接,实质是主航道航线与引航道轴线夹角的大小;文中连接段长度是推轮能克服水流作用于船舶(队)漂移时的长度,否则需重新确定。     

平潭海峡大桥船舶交通管理系统管理程度研究

平潭海峡是中小型船舶东北季风盛行季节北上的黄金水道。近年来随着国民经济的快速增长,沿海航运业得到迅猛发展,海峡船舶密度明显增大。平潭海峡大桥位于平潭海峡中部,桥区通航孔附近每小时最大交通量为17艘,出现船舶追越局面的可能性较大。海峡碍航物多,水流复杂,且小型船舶违规、违章航行现象较普遍,存在一定的安全隐患。定量分析桥区船舶交通危险,进行科学的船舶交通管理系统成本与效益分析,恰当划分与确定船舶交管系统等级,使系统的建设规模符合当地船舶交通的实际需要,力求取得较好的社会效益和经济效益。     

岩溶地区桩基施工综合防治与处理措施探讨

岩溶地区钻孔灌注桩施工难度大,风险高,且多为突发事故,施工前要做好充分的准备,加强施工管理与组织。针对不同的溶洞及软弱覆盖层分布情况,采取不同的施工方案进行处理,以提高施工效率。     

Towards a microeconomic framework for modelling the joint choice of activity–travel behaviour and ICT use

The rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been argued to affect time use patterns in a variety of ways, with consequent impacts on travel behaviour. While there exists a significant body of empirical studies documenting these effects, theoretical developments have lagged this empirical work and in particular, microeconomic time allocation models have not to date been fully extended to accommodate the implications of an increasingly digitised society. To address this gap, we present a modelling framework, grounded in time allocation theories and the goods–leisure framework, for joint modelling of the choice of mode of activity (physical versus tele-activity), travel mode and route, and ICT bundle. By providing the expression for a conditional indirect utility function, we use hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate how our framework can conceptualise various activity–travel decision situations. In our scenarios we assume a variety of situations such as the implications of severe weather, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and the interaction between multiple decision makers. Moreover, our approach lays the microeconomic foundations for deriving subjective values of ICT qualities such as broadband speed or connection reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate the means by which our framework could be linked to various data collection protocols (stated preference exercises, diaries of social interactions, laboratory experiments) and modelling approaches (discrete choice modelling, hazard-based duration models).     

Integrating transport and land-use planning? How steering cultures in local authorities affect implementation of integrated public transport and land-use planning

Previous research has shown integrated planning to be important for achieving aims concerning more environmentally friendly transport operations, but less good at explaining prerequisites of implementation. This paper analyses how management and working practises in local authorities, here understood as steering cultures, affect implementation of integrated land-use and public transport planning approaches. The analysis builds on case studies of planning in two Swedish municipalities. These have developed two antithetical steering cultures, namely one that can be described as deliberative and one that can be described as sectorised. The paper describes the advantages and disadvantages of these steering cultures. The findings show the deliberative model to facilitate integration through advanced mechanisms of consensus and co-ordination between policy-makers and officials. The sectorised model has no such mechanisms, but this need not result in poor prospects of integrated planning. It is important for integrated planning approaches, whatever the steering culture, to be in line with the institutionalised norms and objectives by which planning practices are governed. Integration therefore needs a normative component, so as to ensure implementation. The important normative component in this context can be construed as discourses and rationales concerning transport and the urban development of which public transport forms part.     

Does emission control area policy reduce sulfur dioxides concentration in Shanghai?

As an important measure to abate ship-source air emissions, the establishment of Emission Control Area (ECA) has been adopted not only at international level, but also at national and regional level. However, there exists a research gap of employing econometric models to enrich the ECA policy evaluation research by testing the effectiveness of an ECA policy based on the empirical data. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the ECA policy in shanghai port by adopting regression discontinuity (RD) approach. The RD design is considered as a wonderful substitution for the randomized control trial, which usually serves as a conventional and effective tool to address endogeneity. The causal effect of the ECA policy on the SO₂ concentration reduction can be detected by the RD approach. According to the estimated results, there is a discontinuity around the ECA policy cutoff point, and it is indicated that the SO₂ concentration in Shanghai decreased by at least 0.229 μg/m³ daily on average due to the implementation of the ECA policy. The positive role that the ECA policy plays in reducing SO₂ concentration in Shanghai is well demonstrated. This paper also puts forward an agenda for the future studies in the domain of the ECA policy evaluation.     

Making time count: Traveler activity engagement on urban transit

In practice, travel time is assigned a cost and treated as a disutility to be minimized. There is a growing body of research supporting the hypothesis that travel time has some value of its own, and the proliferation of information and communication technology (ICT) may be contributing to that value. Travelers’ attitudes are confounded with their mode choice, and as telecommunications mediate travel behavior, analysts must recognize the interaction between time use and customer satisfaction for appropriate travel demand management. To that end, this paper presents results from jointly estimated models of travelers’ latent satisfaction and on-board activity engagement using Chicago transit rider data gathered in April 2010. The simple questionnaire and small sample corroborate the findings of past research indicating travel attitudes and activity engagement have potential to influence travelers’ value of time, and many transit riders consider transit a better use of time and/or money than driving. The findings affirm the need for a more holistic understanding of value of time for travel demand management and infrastructure valuation. As time use has an influence on users’ valuation of the transit mode, offering opportunities to conduct certain leisure activities could improve the perceived value of travel time.     

斜穿地裂缝黄土地铁隧道施工诱发的地表沉降及隧道变形规律研究

研究地裂缝影响区内存在可弱化土体的不利因素情况下,西安黄土地区地铁隧道暗挖斜穿地裂缝施工所诱发的地表及隧道相关变形规律。通过FLAC3D模拟预测施工变形规律,并与实际监测数据进行对比分析,得到以下结论:(1)FLAC3D模拟表明,隧道暗挖施工穿越地裂缝时裂缝临近处收敛值会在初期出现短暂负收敛现象;(2)地表在地裂缝影响带的差异沉降发展集中在穿越前和穿越过程中,而拱顶上下盘差异沉降主要集中在穿越过程中;(3)当地裂缝影响带内存在可弱化土体强度的不利因素时,地表最终沉降的峰值点会向不利因素处移动;(4)拱顶最终沉降的峰值点基本在隧道轴线和裂缝的相交处,其受地表的土体弱化因素影响较小。     

兰新铁路第二双线穿越大风区综合选线研究

大风区段对铁路的建设及运营安全存在着各种危害,高速铁路由于具有速度高、车体轻的特点,其安全受到强风威胁会更大,高速铁路穿越大风区防风设置是世界性难题,目前尚无已成功运营的先例,高速铁路大风区综合选线需综合考虑防风设置、防排水、防沙、接触网防风等因素,科学合理进行方案比选研究。通过分析新疆境内四大风区分布及特点,利用既有兰新铁路设施及防风科研成果,对兰新铁路第二双线在穿越大风区段落综合进行选线设计研究,充分分析路基地段的防风设施设置以及线路平纵断面的防风布置选择,确保高速铁路在大风区安全、快速通过,以确定科学、合理的线路设计方案。