民航机务维修差错及其预警专家系统构建

通过对航空机务维修差错控制研究现状的分析,指出存在的问题,提出了以SHEL模型作为维修差错相关信息收集的工具,REASON模型作为分析这些信息的框架,从"人、机、环境、管理"四个方面进一步对维修差错的诱因进行分类的新思路.在此基础上,将Agent技术和基于规则的不确定性推理的预警方法应用于民航机务维修领域,构建了预警专家系统,阐述了其体系结构和系统功能.     

镇江市公路冰雪灾害天气分级预警与处置研究

针对镇江地区的冰雪灾害性天气状况,构建以公路管理部门为主体的部门应急管理体系。依循分级预警体系,构建了分级预警响应方式,对部门内外部应急指挥协调与分工逐步明晰,并且依据灾害管理周期模型,对现有管理方式与政策进行了初步整合,尤其在部门分级预警响应、公共沟通治理、量化问责方面做了新的尝试。     

武汉地铁黄浦路站防洪涝水位及预警研究

国内城市地铁防洪已成为轨道交通发展过程中亟待解决的问题,其中防洪涝水位及预警是城市地铁防洪的重点。文章以武汉地铁黄浦路站为研究对象,通过建立暴雨仿真模型,计算得出地铁车站出入口的洪涝积水深度及降雨量阈值,提出基于降雨区间预报的防洪预警方法,针对预警级别提出相应的防洪措施;计算得出黄浦路站3个出入口的洪涝积水水深和降雨量阈值,以及三级预警级别。     

榆树湾矿区大面积、深层采空区加固处理

榆树湾矿区大面积、深层采空区加固处理采用深层注浆、浅层加固,辅以地面变形观测和固定式横断面监测方法+监测中心计算机系统+通信传输平台的铁路预警系统的综合加固处理措施。深层注浆可防止采空顶板塌陷后,采空区上覆岩层形成跨落带、断裂带和弯曲带不会出现突然塌陷的可能;浅层加固则对采空区边界以外165～200m的变形区进行了加固处理,防止地表的横向水平变形和纵向水平变形对路基本体工程的影响;同时采用固定式横断面监测方法+监测中心计算机系统+通信传输平台的铁路预警系统观测网,对铁路后期运营提供了切实的保障。     

Emission evaluation of inter-vehicle safety warning information systems

Driver inattentiveness is one of critical factors contributing to vehicle crashes. The inter-vehicle safety warning information system (ISWS) is a technology to enhance driver attentiveness by providing warning messages about upcoming hazards using connected vehicle environments. A novel feature of the proposed ISWS is its ability to detect hazardous driving events, such as abrupt accelerations and lane changes, which are defined as moving hazards with a higher potential of causing crashes. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the ISWS in reducing vehicle emissions and its potential for traffic congestion mitigation. This study included a field experiment that documented actual vehicle maneuvering patterns for abrupt accelerations and lane changes, which were used for more realistic simulation evaluations, in addition to normal accelerations and lane changes. Probe vehicles equipped with customized on-board units consisting of a global positioning system (GPS) device, accelerometer, and gyro sensor were used to obtain the vehicle maneuvering data. A microscopic simulator, VISSIM, was used to simulate a driver’s responsive behavior when warning messages were delivered. A motor vehicle emission simulator (MOVES) was then used to estimate vehicle emissions. The results show that reduction in vehicle emissions increased when the ISWS’s market penetration rate (MPR) and the congestion level of the traffic conditions increased. The maximum CO and CO₂ emission reductions achieved were approximately 6% and 7%, respectively, under LOS D traffic conditions. The outcomes of this study can be valuable for deriving smarter operational strategies for ISWS to account for environmental impacts.     

一种自动卸货汽车翻斗安全警示系统设计

本文主要研究的内容是通过增加一套辅助装置,在自动卸货汽车卸货时给予驾驶员一定的提醒,避免驾驶员因为疏忽忘记放下自动卸货汽车的货斗,导致发生一些安全事故。     

Infrastructure based approach for roadway departure risk assessment

This paper presents a warning device to prevent the roadway departure of light vehicles while cornering. The proposed risk assessment methodology is based on recent works from the authors (Rey et al., 2011b,a; Rey, 2010). Given the random variability arising from the driver, the vehicle and the infrastructure at the entrance to the curve, a probabilistic strategy is adopted to assess the roadway departure risk. The infrastructure-based methodology enables the real curve characteristics to be considered and an alarm triggering decision to be made. Two safety criteria are tested and the potential safety benefits of the proposed warning device are evaluated. Contrary to existing roadway departure warning systems, the proposed approach does not require extra equipment for vehicles; it only requires that the measuring and warning devices be part of the road infrastructure, which is a great advantage in terms of economic cost.     

基于ARMA的桥梁监测信息预测技术研究

为解决桥梁结构健康监测中长期累积的海量监测数据处理问题,采用数据挖掘中的时间序列分析方法,利用自回归移动平均(ARMA)技术对桥梁历史静态监测量进行分析,直接得出关于其过去行为的有关结论,进而推断其未来发展趋势。与基于因果关系的结构式模型预测法不同,ARMA无需明确模型结构或边界条件,而是直接从统计学的角度预测变量未来发展情况。采用该技术对西安白蛇峪大桥应变监测数据进行分析,试验结果显示出较高的预测精度;采用该技术对重庆偏岩子大桥的应变、挠度、裂缝、倾斜监测量进行预测,试验统计结果表明,ARMA单步预测误差小于10%的置信度在97%以上,在工程实际中具有可实用性,可为桥梁结构的安全预警提供重要参考依据。     

多元信息预警系统在头道穴隧道施工过程中的安全评价方法研究

为了解决一般安全评价方法单一性、滞后性以及易受人为主观影响的问题,借助多元信息预警系统实测资料,分析了以往公路隧道施工事故原因,在对传统安全评价方法研究的基础上,结合多元信息预警系统工作机制以及在头道穴隧道施工中的应用,提出了一种隧道施工过程的安全评价方法。随着多元信息预警系统在隧道施工过程中的自动采集和监测,构建的评价方法可以将复杂的风险因素及时转化为直观的安全评价结果,同时能够指出具体风险源,最大限度地保障隧道施工安全。     

视频化信息反馈系统在轨道交通工程建设中的应用

北京地下直径线工程位于北京市中心城区,沿线主要穿越富水砂卵石地层,为解决施工难度大,风险高等难题,通过采用视频化信息反馈系统,将监测可视化预警系统、视频监控系统、门禁系统、盾构掘进参数控制系统、施工监测反馈系统等有机集成与应用,规范并提高了施工信息化与管理水平,确保了工程施工安全。