基于组合预测模型的铁路货运量预测研究

为了进一步提高铁路货运量的预测精度,提出基于乘积季节模型与引入注意力机制(Attention Mechanism)的长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory)模型的组合预测模型。首先建立乘积季节模型、LSTM模型与引入注意力机制的LSTM模型,然后利用误差修正法分别将2种LSTM模型与乘积季节模型组合起来进行预测,最后将预测结果分别与单一模型进行对比。采用2005年至2018年全国铁路月度货运量进行预测分析,结果表明2种组合预测模型的预测精度均高于单一预测模型的预测精度,其中基于乘积季节模型与引入注意力机制的LSTM模型的组合预测模型精度最高,具有研究和实用价值。     

On the fundamental diagram for freeway traffic: A novel calibration approach for single-regime models

The speed-density or flow-density relationship has been considered as the foundation of traffic flow theory. Existing single-regime models calibrated by the least square method (LSM) could not fit the empirical data consistently well both in light-traffic/free-flow conditions and congested/jam conditions. In this paper, first, we point out that the inaccuracy of single-regime models is not caused solely by their functional forms, but also by the sample selection bias. Second, we apply a weighted least square method (WLSM) that addresses the sample selection bias problem. The calibration results for six well-known single-regime models using the WLSM fit the empirical data reasonably well both in light-traffic/free-flow conditions and congested/jam conditions. Third, we conduct a theoretical investigation that reveals the deficiency associated with the LSM is because the expected value of speed (or a function of it) is nonlinear with regard to the density (or a function of it).     

大鼠容量超负荷性心肌肥厚时cAMP、cGMP对机械信号刺激的应答反应

目的　动态观察大鼠容量超负荷性心肌肥厚模型中环磷酸腺苷 (cAMP)、环磷酸鸟苷(cGMP)对机械信号刺激的应答反应。方法　应用放射免疫方法观察在容量负荷后不同时间点大鼠心肌中cAMP、cGMP的变化以及在慢性容量超负荷基础上给予急性容量负荷时cAMP、cGMP对机械信号刺激的应答反应。结果　容量负荷后即刻及 4～ 6h ,cAMP、cGMP均明显下降 ,其后逐渐上升 ,1周时cAMP超过正常水平 ,cGMP超过手术对照组水平 ,2周后cAMP、cGMP均下降 ,5个月时显著下降 ;在慢性容量超负荷基础上给予急性容量负荷时心功能恶化 ,同时cAMP呈现反常反应。结论　cAMP、cGMP对机械信号刺激的应答反应表明肥厚心肌存在机械信号跨膜传递障碍。研究这种障碍需进一步探索机械信号跨膜传递通路是由那些环节组成及如何相互作用参与机械信号跨膜传递。     

多模型交通流预测优化

根据当前交通流预测模型发展的情况,提出采用卡尔曼滤波模型、指数平滑模型和非参数回归模型进行预测融合的方法,该方法在提高系统预测速度的基础上也能提高预测精度,因此,具有很好的推广价值.     

出口贸易大国转向出口贸易强国的战略性思考

本文主要阐述了我国对外贸易在由出口贸易大国转变为出口贸易强国的过程中,所应进行的调整出口贸易结构方面的战略思考.文中分析了我国对外贸易在国际贸易中的地位、出口商品结构存在的问题,探究了调整出口贸易结构的内容及调整方向.     

包头黄河大桥主墩承台大体积混凝土施工技术

大体积混凝土施工过程中由于水化热作用很容易产生早期裂缝,结合包头黄河大桥主墩承台施工,对其温度裂缝的成因、影响因素和控制措施进行了探讨,取得了较好效果,可为类似工程提供参考。     

Establishing and Managing Jurisdiction-wide Traffic Monitoring Systems: North American Experiences

With the rapid motorization process in China, an increasingly complicated highway transportation system has been developed. Reliable national and provincial traffic monitoring systems are becoming necessary. A review of experiences from developed countries in North America can be helpful for highway administrations and agencies to design and implement effective and efficient traffic monitoring systems. Highway agencies in North America have over time developed “standard” traffic monitoring systems based on guidelines from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), and the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The common practices are adopted based on the analysis of system accuracy, reliability, and cost-effectiveness. The common practices can produce equivalent and comparable traffic summary statistics, which are able to support sensible decision-makings of all aspects of highway transportation. The experiences of highway agencies, current practices, and related guidelines in North America are therefore presented at first. The principles for guiding development and operation of traffic data programs are then summarized and reviewed. The existing problems and active research for traffic monitoring practices and standards are also identified and discussed. It is believed that the reviewed experiences, guidelines, and principles will be helpful for China to establish effective and common-practice based “standard” traffic monitoring systems.     

不同交通方式服务可靠度与客流量间的灵敏度分析

分析了交通方式服务可靠性的特点和计算方法，并将其引入到效用函数中，提出了考虑方式服务可靠性的效用函数模型，给出了不同交通方式问的均衡配流模型．利用灵敏度法分析了不同方式出行时间可靠度改善对客流的影响关系，给出了具体的关系模型．通过一实例表明该模型与算法是有效的。     

道路交通事故多发点鉴别

介绍了事故多发点的分析方法，建立了事故多发点判别模型，并给出了其算法，根据中国交通流的特点，开发了事故多发点数据库，使事故多发点的鉴别工作能够快速进行。     

水网地区航道OD调查方法研究

在借鉴城市与公路交通OD调查成熟经验的基础上,对我国水网地区内河航道OD调查内容、方法及步骤进行了较为深入的探索和研究,经实践检验,内河航道OD调查可提供准确、翔实的基础数据,为水网地区航道规划、建设、管理的科学性、合理性提供积极支撑。