Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

铁路行包办理系统的研究

作者论述了铁路行包办理系统的组成和关键技术.该系统是由台式计算机、称重卡、压力传感器和秤台组成.称重卡由滤波器、被测信号放大器、基准电压放大器、积分器、零器、脉冲发生器、计数器、控制器组成.所有电子元件焊接在一块双面印刷电路板上,上面有一个9D型插座,用于联接电阻应变式传感器.它可插在台式计算机的扩展槽上.传感器工作电压由计算机电源提供.称重卡的驱动程序是在Windows平台下的硬件驱动程序,使用WDM技术编写.     

汽车仿真中三维路面模型生成系统开发

提出了根据多功能激光路面检测仪测得的路面信息,利用Delaunay三角剖分结合加权函数插值生成三维路面模型的算法,在此基础上开发了路面生成系统,该系统可以生成不同网格形式的路面模型及其相应的路面文件,可以直接被汽车仿真软件调用.通过功率谱对比与Adams仿真分析对生成的路面模型进行验证,结果表明生成的路面模型能够真实地反映实际路面不平度的特征.     

基于修正G1和Vague集的川藏铁路重大桥梁桥位评价研究

为指导复杂地形地质条件下艰险山区铁路--川藏铁路的重大桥梁工程桥位选择,针对川藏铁路沿线特征,以减灾为核心,以工程技术、工程经济、施工条件、地形地质、水文气候、生态影响6个方面17个指标建立指标体系,基于CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation, CRITIC)-G1(Order Relation Analysis Method, G1)法组合赋权和Vague集-TOPSIS法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)多属性模糊决策建立川藏铁路重大桥梁桥位评价模型。应用模型对川藏铁路怒江大桥桥位进行评价,得到丢攻高桥方案为最优桥位方案。结果表明:指标体系对川藏铁路桥位方案评价具全面性和针对性;CRITIC修正G1法组合赋权能提高指标赋权合理性;Vague集-TOPSIS法模糊决策能提高川藏铁路重大桥梁桥位模糊评价的准确性,模型评价结果合理可靠,可为铁路重大桥梁桥位选择提供合理可行的决策方法。     

西宁至成都铁路同仁至甘加越岭段工程地质问题及地质选线

为了科学地指导西宁至成都铁路同仁至甘加越岭段的地质选线工作,采用综合勘察方法,借鉴兰渝铁路的勘察及施工经验,并结合灰色关联法与变权理论,查明三叠系软岩大变形及上新近系砂岩水稳性为研究区的主要工程地质问题;根据岩性、岩体完整程度、层厚、强度应力比、地下水等因素,对三叠系软岩大变形进行风险分级;构建地质选线数学模型对多种线路方案进行定量评价,得出最优方案,为地质选线提供依据。     

����ǰ·��ѡ��Ķ�Ŀ��滮ģ��

在分析了基于城市交通信息港的出行前最优路径选择问题的多目标属性的基础上，建立了出行前最优路径选择的多目标规划模型，模型所求得的解是综合最优路径，反映了城市交通出行者信息以及目标需求多样性的特点.设计了基于线性加权法的模型求解算法.通过算例初步验证了模型的合理性和有效性.     

基于VW-PCA的盾构刀盘驱动液压系统故障诊断

为提高盾构刀盘液压系统故障诊断的快速性和准确性,引入权值向量来改进传统主元分析法（PCA）,并推导变量加权主元分析法（VW-PCA）公式。通过AMESim仿真软件建立6 450 mm土压平衡盾构刀盘驱动液压系统模型,选取12个测试变量,模拟仿真6种故障状态; 运用仿真故障数据得到每一类故障的加权向量,建立变量加权主元分析模型（VW-PCA）,并使用该模型对测试故障样本进行研究。结果表明： 变量加权(VW) 能够增强各系统变量对不同故障类型的贡献程度,变量加权主元模型（VW-PCA）能够显著提高系统诊断的正确率,最大可提高50%以上。     

基于组合赋权法的高速公路应急管理能力评价

高速公路应急管理能力是保证高速公路安全运行,提高运营效益的必然要求,通过深入分析高速公路应急管理能力的内涵,构建高速公路应急管理能力评价指标体系,利用主观G1法和客观熵值法相结合的权重确定方法对高速公路应急管理能力各指标进行组合赋权。基于可拓学理论,运用物元模型建立物元可拓评价方法。最后,以兰州市某高速公路为例,对该方法的合理性和可靠性进行验证,为高速公路应急管理能力的评价提供依据。     

Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.     

物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型

针对物流园区建设序列问题的多阶段多指标决策和投资优化实质,本文以熵权和理想解法为基础,结合Delphi 法和0-1型整数规划,提出了一个物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型,比较好地解决了物流园区建设序列决策中多阶段多指标评价问题和投资优化问题。