A comparative study of aggregate and disaggregate gravity models using Seoul metropolitan subway trip data

Abstract

Existing origin constrained and doubly constrained gravity models have not been compared, theoretically or empirically, in terms of their forecasting power. Due to the newly advanced technology of intelligent transport systems, the expanded data presently available have made various models more comparable in terms of forecasting power. This paper uses archived automatic passenger counting (APC) data for urban rail in the Seoul metropolitan area. The APC data contains information about each trip's origin, destination, ticket type, fare, and distance on a daily basis. The objective of this paper is to compare the goodness-of-fit of aggregate and disaggregate gravity modeling using these data. A Hyman aggregate gravity model is used as the aggregate model without the spatial effect. The disaggregate model adopts a multinomial logit as the destination choice model with the spatial effect. In general, while the formulation of aggregate and disaggregate gravity model models are similar, the calibration and parameter estimation methods of the two models are different. As a result, this empirical study demonstrates that the variation in goodness-of-fit and forecasting power largely depends on the estimation method and selected variables. The forecasting power of the disaggregate modeling approach outperforms that of the aggregate model. This paper further confirms that spatial arrangement plays important roles in gravity modeling.     

螺旋桨梢涡空泡初生及尺度效应研究

应用气泡动力学方程和气泡运动微分方程研究了螺旋桨梢涡空泡的初生问题,并根据简化Reyleigh-Plesset方程推导了不同尺度模型空化初生空泡数换算公式,建立了空化初生尺度换算模型,研究了螺旋桨梢涡空泡初生尺度效应问题。螺旋桨梢涡流场应用RANS方法求解,湍流模型为经过旋转和曲率修正的代数雷诺应力模型(EARSM-CC)。计算结果表明,文中建立的数值方法能够准确预报出螺旋桨梢涡流场分布;螺旋桨梢涡空泡初生空泡数计算结果高于试验观察值;应用文中建立的空化初生尺度换算模型得到的结果与数值模拟结果基本吻合,而且其结果偏于安全。     

考虑流动分离的有限宽楔形剖面匀速入水受力分析

文章基于MLM砰击模型（Modified Logvinovich Model）研究有限宽度楔形剖面匀速入水受力问题。当流动在折角处分离后,通过引入虚拟物面扩展MLM计算方法适用范围,使其可以考虑流动分离对剖面受力的影响。并计算了垂向水动力在流动分离前、后随时间的变化。将结果与非线性数值解、试验值进行比较表明：这是一种相对简单且计算快速的有效方法,易于工程实际应用。     

斗式提升机带载启动困难原因分析及解决措施

斗式提升机普遍存在带载启动困难的问题,极需解决。分析斗式提升机带载启动困难的原因,提出通过局部改进以解决带载启动难的问题。改革取得良好效果。     

Monopoly,Subsidies and the Mohring Effect: A Synthesis

Abstract

This paper provides a unifying framework to analyze whether a monopoly transit provider will under or over-supply frequency. To this end we couch the problem in term of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429] who analyzed the incentives to provide quality by a monopolist. We show that all of the results of a recent academic exchange discussing this topic are special cases of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429], albeit with an adjustment in order to take into account the cost structure of frequency provision in the case of public transport. In theory then, there are cases when a monopolist may offer optimal or above optimal levels of frequency without requiring subsidies. However, public transport is rarely provided by an unregulated monopolist. Rather, these services are usually provided either by an exclusive operator under regulated fares or by a group of competing operators, with or without fare regulation. We show that in the first case frequency will always be below the social optimal level.     

堆载预压法加固吹填淤泥地基效果评价

介绍了堆载预压法在港口吹填淤泥地基加固中的运用,采用现场实测结果评价其加固效果;与此同时,采用单向分层总和法计算堆载后地基最终累积沉降和土体分层沉降,且用实测结果检验理论计算结果,探讨这种理论计算方法在吹填淤泥地基中的适用性。结果表明:堆载预压法加固吹填淤泥地基效果显著。经堆载预压处理后,土体物理力学性质和十字板剪切强度得到了很明显的改善和提高,地基承载力特征值能够满足设计要求;现场实测沉降结果与理论计算沉降结果几乎一致,验证了理论方法计算沉降的可靠性和准确性。     

地铁屏蔽门门机驱动系统设计

门机驱动系统是地铁屏蔽门控制系统的重要组成部分.本驱动系统运用STM32F103RC处理器对无刷直流电机进行三闭环控制,实现了对屏蔽门的滑动门控制.对系统的设计原理、重要部分软件、硬件进行了描述.最后,通过对门机驱动系统进行测试和分析,确认该系统满足设计和实际使用要求.     

强流束在三圆筒单透镜中的传输研究

强流脉冲束在三圆筒单透镜中的传输是一个相当复杂的问题,因为不同类型的粒子束分布产生不同的空间电荷场,而在束流运动过程中,空间电荷场也在不断地变化,而且粒子运动的轨迹与空间电荷势又是相互依赖的,因此需要求得一个自洽的解.对于强流脉冲束在三圆筒单透镜中的传输,束流的空间电荷效应显著,需要考虑空间电荷效应对束流传输的影响.采用矩阵法分析非强流脉冲束流与强流脉冲束流在三圆筒单透镜中的传输矩阵,采用迭代方法计算强流脉冲束流的空间电荷效应对束流传输的影响,并编写了束流在三圆筒单透镜等元件中传输的计算程序.程序在进行模拟计算时,可以直观地显示束流相图、束流包络线等图形     

路基回弹模量对刚性路面疲劳寿命的影响分析

基于大型通用有限元软件ABAQUS,建立水泥混凝土路面结构体系三维有限元模型,针对2种路面结构形式和2种轴重的轴载作用,计算不同路基回弹模量下的路面结构响应,结合水泥混凝土疲劳方程,分析路基回弹模量对路面结构疲劳寿命的影响.结果表明,随着路基模量的增加,板底应力水平及变化率近似呈线性水平降低,而路面疲劳寿命与疲劳寿命折减率则呈现出较为明显的非线性变化,应力水平变化不大的条件将使得路面结构疲劳寿命产生显著影响;提高路基回弹模量在较高区间(40～60 kPa)将更加显著增大路面疲劳寿命,另外,增大轴载会使路面结构疲劳寿命显著降低.     

隧道初期支护变形特性空间效应分析及结构尺寸优化

针对长大公路隧道进口段软弱围岩稳定性较差,而隧洞的开挖进一步破坏了岩体的初始应力平衡状态,围岩应力状态的改变不利于围岩的稳定性问题,通过三维有限差分方法分析了初支尺寸、初支时机、初支刚度对围岩和支护结构的力学特性的影响,得出一些对软弱围岩山岭双线隧道具有实际指导意义的结论,为设计和施工提供可靠的依据。