基于LSTM模型的船舶材料成本滚动预测

船舶建造周期长、材料成本占比大,易受大宗商品价格指数和汇率等多个因素的影响,造成实际完工成本与报价估算存在较大误差的情况。采用灰色关联分析（Grey Correlation Analysis,GCA）方法识别材料成本的影响因素,基于长短期记忆网络（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）模型构建船舶材料成本滚动预测模型,并使用某造船企业53艘64 000 t散货船63个月的材料成本数据和对应的影响因素数据进行试验分析。结果表明,预测数据与实际数据误差在可接受范围内,可证明所选择方法和构建模型的有效性。研究结果对船舶建造过程的成本实时预测和控制具有现实意义。     

LGF复合材料在商用车中的应用研究

LGF即为长玻纤增强热塑性复合材料,具有密度低、比强度高、回收利用率高等特点,对汽车轻量化的发展具有重要意义.文章介绍了长玻纤增强热塑性复合材料在国内外的发展状况、成型工艺、性能特点、现有问题及解决办法,最后针对商用车轻量化的要求,提出采用长玻纤增强PP材料代替原铝合金走台板方案.     

The determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain

This study analyses of the determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain using data from the 1995-2006 National Travel Surveys (NTSs). The main objective is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and geographic factors on long distance travel. The estimated models express the distance travelled for long distance journeys as a function of income, gender, age, employment status, household characteristics, area of residence, size of municipality, type of residence and length of time living in the area. A time trend is also included to capture common changes in long distance travel over time not included in the explanatory variables. Separate models are estimated for total travel, travel by each of four modes (car, rail, coach and air), travel by five purposes (business, commuting, leisure, holiday and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs)) and two journey lengths (<150 miles and 150+ miles one way), as well as the 35 mode-purpose-distance combinations.The results show that long distance travel is strongly related to income: air is most income-elastic, followed by rail, car and finally coach. This is the case for most journey purposes and distance bands. Notable is the substantial difference in income elasticities for rail for business/commuting as opposed to holiday/leisure/VFR. In addition, the income elasticity for coach travel is very low, and zero for the majority of purpose-distance bands, suggesting coach travel to be an inferior mode in comparison to car, rail and air. Regarding journey distance, we find that longer distance journeys are more income elastic than shorter journeys.For total long distance travel, the study indicates that women travel less than men, the elderly less than younger people, the employed and students more than others, those in one adult households more than those in larger households and those in households with children less than those without. Long distance travel is also lowest for individuals living in London and greatest for those in the South West, and increases as the size of the municipality declines.     

湖北沪渝高速长大纵坡交通安全改造方案

文章主要对山区高速公路长度较大,且坡度较陡路段的交通事故分析,捋清各种事故的共同特点和诱发因素,从事故状况、路线状况、事故原因分析、交通设施的角度对湖北沪渝高速公路鄂西段提出了安全改造方案,由于运营的原因,现在进行安全改造不太可能采用路线的措施.上面所提到的措施可以同时运用,也可以选用其中一种或几种,都将在一定程度上减...     

基于时延特性建模的多断面短时交通流预测

针对现有交通流预测方法未充分考虑多断面车流演变规律,提出基于时延特性建模的时空相关性计算方法. 该方法采用对不同断面、不同时刻交通流的分布相似性度量,对输入的车辆到达数据序列进行切割构建时空相似度矩阵,得到相邻断面之间的时延参数. 基于时延特性建模,将多断面之间的流量信息进行融合,使用长短时记忆(LSTM)网络进行流量预测. 通过对实际路段数据的预测和结果分析,验证所提方法的有效性和实用性.     

朔黄铁路隧道防灾监控及应急通信系统的应用

为保证铁路安全运输,有必要进行沿线隧道特别是长大隧道的防灾监控及应急通信系统的建设。以朔黄铁路长梁山隧道为例,介绍隧道防灾监控及应急通信系统的结构、组成及应用。     

The California Coastal Act and Ports: The Unintended Environmental Justice Implications of Preserving California's Coastline

Consistent with the policies set forth in the Coastal Zone Management Act, the California Coastal Act seeks to balance the utilization and conservation of coastal resources, taking into account the social and economic needs of the citizens of California. One way the statute pursues this balance is through its provisions for ports. These provisions have functioned as a type of smart growth planning for ports, encouraging densification of existing port districts and possibly averting maritime commercial and industrial sprawl along the California coast. One unintended consequence of the encouraged consolidation of port activities, when combined with the rapid growth in international trade over the last four decades, has been disproportionally large environmental and health impacts on low-income and minority communities surrounding ports. This article examines how the Port of Long Beach's conformance with the California Coastal Act has resulted in ongoing environmental justice concerns. It discusses approaches employed by the Port of Long Beach to reduce environmental justice concerns resulting from significant and unavoidable environmental impacts and offers suggestions for how to address this issue.     

广昆铁路三棵树隧道光面爆破施工技术

成昆线广通至昆明段扩能改造工程三棵树隧道工程地质条件复杂,在岩石隧道掘进中普通爆破技术已不能满足施工要求,采用了光面爆破技术控制隧道开挖成型质量.介绍三棵树隧道采用光面爆破技术方案、特点、工艺流程、施工方法及安全保障措施.三棵树隧道采用光面爆破明显缩短了作业时间,在每一个施工循环中清理危石或补炮缩短20 min,初期支护缩短20 min,装渣及出渣缩短20 min;减少超挖量15%,节省了火工品和因非光面爆破所造成的围岩破碎所需锚杆、钢筋网等初期支护的工程量,施工效果良好、经济效益明显.     

500米长轨营业线火车市场运费与概预算编制办法计算运费对比分析

随着《铁路基本建设项目投资管理办法》(铁总计统〔2017〕179号)及《关于铁路建设项目清理概算工作的通知》(发改投资电〔2019〕1号)文的出台,标志着铁路建设项目概算清理工作,将逐步交由建设单位按照不突破初步设计批复金额进行处理,因此初步设计阶段如何确保招标预算金额的准确性,体现的越来越为重要,本文通过对500米长轨营业线火车市场运费与编制办法计算运费的分析,量化两者费用存在的差异,列明差异原因,并提出相关建议。     

厂焊500m长钢轨生产工艺及单价分析

铁路列车速度越来越高,为保证列车运行的平稳性,轨道工程越来越多地采用无缝线路轨道技术。于是,厂焊500m长钢轨在铁路工程建设中得到广泛应用。为合理确定钢轨焊接标准单价,对既有焊轨基地生产线进行了调研,根据钢轨焊接工作内容、工艺,对所需人工、材料、设备及费用等进行统计分析与探讨,并由此提出工程建设可参考的钢轨焊接单价标准：目前100m定尺钢轨焊接单价约为4．3万元／km,25m定尺钢轨焊接单价约为5．95万元／km。