Young drivers and graduated licensing: The Ontario case

Despite improvements in road safety over the past several decades, accident rates remain high for young drivers. One accident countermeasure that is expected to improve the safety record of this group is graduated licensing. The philosophy behind this licensing system is that novice drivers, of whom the majority are young, should be restricted to relatively safe driving environments during the initial learning period. Graduated licensing was implemented in the Province of Ontario, Canada in 1994. The objective of this study is to estimate the potential benefits and costs for young drivers associated with two components of the Ontario graduated licensing package: the late-night driving curfew and the high-speed roadway restrictions. Based on accident and travel data for the year 1988, accident-involvement rates per kilometre driven were calculated for different driver groups for various combinations of time of day and roadway speed limit. These rates were then applied to the expected mobility profiles of young drivers affected by graduated licensing. The results of the study support the late-night curfew and suggest that this component of the licensing package should reduce total accident involvements for the affected group by up to 10 percent and fatal accident involvements by up to 24 percent, while reducing their total driving by only four percent. By contrast, the empirical evidence suggest that the high-speed roadway restrictions are likely to increase accident involvements, and thus it is strongly recommended that this component of Ontario's graduated licensing package be changed.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

公路投标价编制技巧与报价策略

就企业如何进行投标价的编制与报价 ,以及如何提高报价决策技巧来赢取工程任务并取得最佳经济效益进行了探讨。     

对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

状态维修系统的指数分布检测策略

系统有4种运行状态：正常、异常、隐患和故障，系统从正常依次经异常、隐患到达故障。正常状态、异常状态和隐患状态为系统的工作状态，系统处于哪种工作状态检测诊断后才能知道，系统故障时不需检测诊断就能知道。系统每次开始正常工作后，每隔一段随机时间对它检测诊断一次，直到系统故障或检测诊断出系统处于异常或隐患状态为止，并且诊断正常和异常时结果有可能出现错误，隐患诊断结果不会出错。在系统的寿命为连续型随机变量，检测间隔时间服从指数分布的假设下，利用向量Markov过程方法求出了系统的可靠性指标、系统的最优检测策略。     

国内外城市轨道站点区域联动 开发规划与实施案例分析

城市轨道站点与周边土地的联动开发是实现二者协调发展的关键因素之一,对城市经济和交通都具有积 极作用。对国内外城市轨道站点区域联动开发进行总结分析有助于指导中国轨道站点区域的联动开发。从产权和 城市经济学视角,将轨道站点联动开发分为内外联动和上下联动两类,并进行了相关界定。分别结合日本联动开 发政策以及涩谷站数据、上海联动开发政策和打浦桥站区域数据,对内外联动和上下联动的规划和实施途径及其 在中国的适用性进行了分析。最后,参考更多经典的联动开发案例,对比分析了国内外城市轨道站点区域联动开 发的实施机制及特征;并从政策和规划设计两个角度深入阐述对中国联动开发的启示。研究结果表明,中国可采 用“政府统筹、市场执行”的模式;根据中国土地所有制度,探索“集约换使用权”“整体出让使用权”等多样 化的土地管理模式,有利于成本分担和收益共享的反哺策略;制定配套且细化的技术规范,进行立体化、多样化、 一体化衔接设计。     

我国地铁工程施工图审查现状及政策建议

地铁工程施工图审查是政府监管地铁工程勘察设计质量的一项重要手段。通过与建筑工程对比,说明我国地铁工程具有施工图审查机构数量少、全国范围承揽业务、审查费率低等特点;分析我国地铁工程施工图审查中存在的问题,如在制度执行中审查机构抗风险能力差、高度市场化易导致不正当竞争等问题。通过借鉴发达国家和香港地区的施工图审查制度和实施经验,提出当前我国地铁工程施工图审查体制改革的几点政策建议。     

北京市小汽车交通发展研究

首先对北京市小汽车发展的历程进行了回顾,接着分析了现状和特点,并对北京市小汽车发展引发的诸多经济社会问题进行了反思。认为当前小汽车发展是超前消费,超过了经济发展速度,与城市化发展不协调,小汽车在交通出行结构中所占比例过高,加重了交通拥堵,给资源、环境造成了沉重的负担和影响。从可持续发展的理念出发,北京市小汽车发展的总体策略应该是：适量拥有、合理使用。政府管理部门要树立“公交优先”的思想,采取各种管理手段缓解交通拥堵,减少交通事故。     

布达佩斯城市交通发展战略与启示

分别从概况、战略目标、实施策略等3个方面对布达佩斯城市交通发展的总体战略及公共交通、道路网络、静态交通、步行及自行车交通、交通管理等发展战略进行了阐述。由此得出,居民出行线路上任何一种交通方式的低效都将破坏整个交通链的效率,只有整个交通链所有交通环节的和谐发展,才能够使公共交通在运输服务上较小汽车具有竞争力;只有综合利用公共交通与私人交通,才能使城市交通与土地利用相协调。最后,结合布达佩斯和国内实践经验,总结提出了一种包含人口、经济、地理、环境、技术、制度等要素的“六棱形”城市交通发展战略规划模型。     

新冠肺炎疫情对民航的影响分析与政策建议

为给政府制定应对策略提供决策支持,基于航班运行数据分析了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航造成的影响。通过分析2003年“非典”和新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航影响的差异,基于情景假设对2020年民航运输发展形势进行了预测分析,并提出有关政策建议。研究结果表明：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对民航市场需求造成了严重的冲击,2020年民航运输形势不容乐观,预计年旅客运输量同比基本持平或下降10.9%。政府部门需在做好疫情防控期间运输保障工作的同时,加快出台积极的产业政策以支撑民航发展。