论海上危机决策

阐述了海上危机管理的发展趋势,针对海上危机决策的特殊性,分析了决策者的作用和能力,决策的模式、方法、艺术和决策最佳人选,以及防止危机产生的方法和措施。     

大型编组站空车调配若干问题研究

抓住地方流为有调中转流服务,确保列车正点出发这个大原则,在分析到达车流、发送货流以及车站现有车辆的基础上,将编组站空车调配问题划分为两个阶段进行研究.首先从运用车数最少,发送吨数最多两项目标出发,考虑车种代用,建立编组站空车调配计划模型.然后用分段的多个"静态"优化问题逼近一个"动态"问题的方法,以压缩作业车在站停留时间,减少空车调移总费用为目标,建立各时段编组站货场、调车场及专用线问的空车调配决策模型.通过一定算法,即可实现用计算机编制拥有大型货场和大量专用线的编组站空车调配计划,以减轻计划人员的劳动强度,辅助车站调度员做好空车调配工作.     

基于行为识别的智能车纵向决策研究

针对智能车纵向决策问题,提出基于环境车辆偏离车道程度识别运动模式的方法;构建动态环境车辆横纵向轨迹预测模型,并求解;构建保持、先行、避让在内的决策集,提出基于预测轨迹的单个车辆决策方法,并基于所有动态环境车辆的决策结果在加速、减速和匀速3 种结果中做出综合决策. 实车实验表明：在直行、换道和转弯运动模式下轨迹预测平均误差分别为0.11,0.29,0.80 m,预测精度较高;复杂动态环境下,本文提供的纵向决策信息提升了智能车行驶的安全性和舒适性.     

战场电磁兼容辅助决策模型构建*

针对当前战场电磁兼容难题,提出了基于动态频谱池管理的战场电磁兼容辅助决策模型,论述了战场电磁兼容辅助决策模型中关键的频谱感知、预测分析、频谱池分配与管理和辅助决策等模型,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的舰船研制方案群决策

针对舰船研制方案存在的问题以及定量指标和定性指标的特点,提出一种基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的综合多属性群决策方法,再结合效用函数来对其进行研究.将多位专家对研制方案的意见综合为专家组的一致意见,实现了舰船研制方案的评估.最后,通过实例说明该方法的有效性及合理性.     

基于模糊相似度的群决策方案排序

为解决排序方案多属性特征、决策者对事物认识的局限性以及决策群体中各个体间的矛盾性导致的决策方案排序困难的问题,引入模糊相似度概念,以测度决策专家的偏好差异,用有序加权平均算子集结群体意见,通过与虚拟正、负理想方案比较,实现决策方案排序,并介绍了决策实施步骤.     

舰艇末端软硬协同防空辅助决策方法研究

在分析舰艇末端防空作战特点的基础上,给出舰载作战软件在舰艇末端软硬协同防空的辅助决策方法。启用＂决策预案＂功能,以提高指挥决策的针对性和快捷性;分析＂决策方案＂的组成及功能,给出武器使用冲突消减的决策方法,在决策模型内部即对软硬火力进行综合协调处理,保证作战软件输出实时、准确、软硬一体的辅助决策结果。     

Expertise in decision-making for large infrastructure projects: from UK trunk roads to High Speed Rail 2

At the decision-making stage, a large-scale infrastructure project is essentially a broad concept, and this means the expert analyses will differ from each other and become contested over time, leading to the emergence of rival narratives. It is only where there is a limited range of expert analyses that the bases for decision-making will remain relatively clear-cut. Over time the contested nature of expertise can significantly inhibit the construction of effective narratives, either for or against the project, and also make decision-making more complex and problematic. Decision makers may also seek greater clarification through the construction of narratives that rise above these disputed areas of expertise, and the scientific evidence becomes less important. This paper examines the changing nature of contested expertise through a comparative analysis of political decision-making between UK trunk roads policy and the case of High Speed Rail 2, through the framework of epistemic communities.     

Artificial forces for virtual autonomous ships with encountering situations in restricted waters

ABSTRACT

Even if the same two ships operate in the same encountering situation, the actual strategies and timing of operations may be different. Therefore, the fixed collision avoidance trajectory and ship movements are no longer suitable for simulating the real ship behaviour. This paper tries to develop an artificial intelligent system that fully sensitive to the local circumstances and command a ship in virtual environment. Based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, this study has developed artificial forces which help decision makings on-board independently under different situations and catching the stochastic nature of ship behaviours during collision avoidances manoeuvring. Actual ship tracks are helpful for ascertaining the parameters that contribute to artificial forces in collision avoidances, while the correlation coefficient analysis is helpful to distinguish the parameters. This study will help to develop a navigation traffic simulation to reflect the realistic ship behaviour and provide reliable information for port and waterway planning, risk analysis, and mitigation measures. The method can be used in developing algorithms for autonomous ships. The method introduced in this study lays a foundation for developing artificial forces at intersections or bends, although the model is only applicable in straight channels at the moment.     

大型舰艇编队通信指挥决策方案效能评估

为了对大型舰艇编队通信指挥决策方案的效能进行评估,建立了一套通信指挥决策方案效能评估的指标体系,采用基于层次分析和模糊综合评判的方法对大型舰艇编队通信指挥决策方案的效能进行了评估.分析结果表明,该指标体系和评估方法能够快速直观地反映通信指挥决策方案在某一任务环境下的综合效能并对多个方案进行优选.