Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

狗左右心室和肺循环功能的同步测定与评价

本文介绍了狗左、右心室和肺循环功能的同步测定方法,并同时观察了左、右心室收缩、舒张性能、泵功能和肺循环功能的多项指标。在实验条件下,动物的生理状况在3小时内基本稳定。     

自激多谐继电器稳定可靠性的提高措施

针对闪光器普遍存在闪频不稳的现象，分类叙述影响自激多谐继电器闪频的因素，并提出提高其稳定可靠性的具体措施。     

优化运输结构加快铁路发展

交通运输业的发展受资源环境约束,各种运输方式在资源消耗和环境保护等方面存在较大差异,对资源和环境的影响也不同。我国各种运输方式发展的关键是在资源环境约束条件下协调发展。深入贯彻落实科学发展观,加强统筹协调和宏观调控,推进交通运输结构优化,加快铁路发展,提高铁路运输能力,促进节能减排、资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设。     

铁路冷藏车不稳定传热反应系数法的研究与分析

由于铁路冷藏车在结构、运行环境等方面与普通建筑相比存在较大区别,故传热特性不同,反应系数差异大。使用反应系数法研究铁路冷藏车的不稳定传热过程,利用计算机辅助分析方法对冷藏车围护结构的不稳定传热进行数值计算,考察不同车速、不同方程根项数以及不同反应系数项数等对冷藏车负荷计算精度的影响。研究表明:冷藏车运行速度对整体计算精度影响不大,取200 km.h-1时的相关数值最佳;方程根值取至-25,车顶的反应系数项数取至第30项,车壁和车底的反应系数项数取至第15项,即可满足求解精度要求。     

Young drivers and graduated licensing: The Ontario case

Despite improvements in road safety over the past several decades, accident rates remain high for young drivers. One accident countermeasure that is expected to improve the safety record of this group is graduated licensing. The philosophy behind this licensing system is that novice drivers, of whom the majority are young, should be restricted to relatively safe driving environments during the initial learning period. Graduated licensing was implemented in the Province of Ontario, Canada in 1994. The objective of this study is to estimate the potential benefits and costs for young drivers associated with two components of the Ontario graduated licensing package: the late-night driving curfew and the high-speed roadway restrictions. Based on accident and travel data for the year 1988, accident-involvement rates per kilometre driven were calculated for different driver groups for various combinations of time of day and roadway speed limit. These rates were then applied to the expected mobility profiles of young drivers affected by graduated licensing. The results of the study support the late-night curfew and suggest that this component of the licensing package should reduce total accident involvements for the affected group by up to 10 percent and fatal accident involvements by up to 24 percent, while reducing their total driving by only four percent. By contrast, the empirical evidence suggest that the high-speed roadway restrictions are likely to increase accident involvements, and thus it is strongly recommended that this component of Ontario's graduated licensing package be changed.     

人工神经网络在基坑变形性状研究中的应用

基坑工程不仅要保证维护结构本身的安全,而且要保证周围建(构)筑物的安全和正常使用。开展基坑工程变形性状研究具有重要意义。影响基坑变形的因素很复杂,传统的计算方法已无法准确预测基坑的变形。人工神经网络(ANN)有很强的解决非线性问题的能力。近些年来基于ANN的方法在岩土工程中得到了广泛的应用。本文对ANN在基坑工程中的应用研究进行了综述,并对其发展方向进行了分析。     

台湾海峡主航道船舶定线的研究

在对台湾海峡主航道船舶交通的调查与分析的基础上,应用海上交通工程的理论和方法,对海峡通航环境进行定性和定量分析,揭示海峡中主要交通流模式和交通环境特征,结合IMO《关于船舶定线的一般规定》,规划和设计台湾海峡主航道船舶定线制,并对该定线制方案设计中的技术问题进行了探讨。     

东营黄河大桥上部结构施工支架及挂篮关键技术

东营黄河大桥主桥上部结构(116 200 220 200 116)m预应力混凝土刚构连续结合梁的箱梁采用菱形挂篮悬臂施工法。介绍了主墩和次主墩0号块施工分别选取的支架方案,以及现浇直线段的支架方案。阐述了挂篮的试压方法,并对其试压结果进行了分析。     

高职院校培养学生立业创业能力的思考

创业能力是指一种能够顺利实现创业目标的能力,是高层次的综合职业能力,是带有创新特征的能力。本文通过对立业创业所需要具备的素质的分析,并结合当前社会对立业创业能力的新观念,就高职院校学生如何培养立业创业能力提出几点思考。