基于粗糙集的城市轨道交通项目效益因素多元组合权重研究

效益因素的权重确定是对城市轨道交通项目进行效益分析的重要环节。针对只考虑单个因素权重存在的片面性和局限性问题,根据粗糙集的基本原理,给出城市轨道交通项目效益因素多元组合权重的计算模型,用调查得到的8个城市轨道交通项目的效益因素数据进行多元组合权重的计算和分析。结果表明,城市轨道交通社会效益因素的组合权重大于经济效益因素的组合权重,印证了在现阶段我国的城市轨道交通项目具有较强的准公共产品经济特性;不同效益因素之间相互制约、相互作用,对决策结果的影响很大。     

Attitudes towards the role of Cost–Benefit Analysis in the decision-making process for spatial-infrastructure projects: A Dutch case study

This paper provides a systematic overview of the attitudes of key actors in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) practice towards the role of CBA in the decision-making process for spatial-infrastructure projects. The main aim of this paper is to scrutinize the extent to which there is agreement among these Dutch actors in regard to the role of the CBA in the decision-making process. A secondary goal is to provide possible explanations for agreements and controversies among key actors in the Dutch CBA practice. In this study two research methods are combined to study the key actors’ attitudes. Firstly, 86 key actors (e.g. consultants, scientists, policy makers) were interviewed in-depth. Secondly, 74 of them completed a written questionnaire. The most important conclusion of this paper is that in the Dutch CBA practice there is agreement that CBA must have a role in the appraisal process of spatial-infrastructure projects. However, there is a lot of controversy among economists and spatial planners in the Dutch CBA practice concerning the value that is and should be assigned to CBA in the decision-making process. Economists predominantly believe that not enough value is assigned to the CBA in the decision-making process, whereas spatial planners predominantly think that too much value is assigned to the CBA. Both economists and spatial planners believe that this controversy is problematic as it results in debates about the pros and cons of CBA instead of the pros and cons of the spatial-infrastructure projects. This paper analyzes some solutions for this controversy.     

管道完整性维护费用的效用函数优化方法

通过对管道完整性维修费用和收益的分析,提出了用效用函数来优化管道的完整性维修费用,给出了详细的求解方法。此方法建立在管道失效概率基础上,通过建立统一的损失度量标准来衡量直接经济损失、人身伤亡和环境破坏的影响,从而决定最优的维护费用。     

高速公路可变限速系统的社会经济影响评价

运用计算机对高速公路典型路段可变限速系统进行模拟,模拟结果表明在交通量等于或大于2800veh h出现明显的效益。根据行程时间和实际服务流量确定不同交通量情况下可变限速的最佳值,并基于行程时间的节省测度出各交通量条件下实施可变限速货币化的增量效益,进行了成本效益分析。采用DEA方法进行多目标综合评价,评价结果显示,在DEA的各方案中3200、3400、3600、3800veh h所对应的DMU是DEA有效的。本文还证明了DEA对ITS项目评价是很有适用价值的,它能够描述用货币单位难以测度,但可用某种定量指标表述的重要影响。     

Port investments on coastal and marine disasters prevention: Economic modeling and implications

Located along shorelines, seaports are highly vulnerable to coastal and marine natural disasters largely due to climate change. Damage caused by disasters can be prevented or alleviated if sufficient investments are made in a timely manner. However, despite a wide range of investment options and well-developed engineering expertise, port investment on disaster prevention remains a challenging task involving great complexities. This paper develops an integrated economic model for the analysis of disaster-prevention investments at a “landlord” port. It simultaneously considers the uncertainty of disaster occurrence and associated return of prevention investments, the information accumulation and related investment timing, and the benefit spillovers of investment among stakeholders. Our analysis shows that the timing of port investments depends on the probability of disasters. Immediate investment is optimal for disasters with very high probability, while investment should be postponed if such a probability is very low. Optimal timing for cases of intermediate probability cannot be determined analytically, as it is influenced by other factors such as discount rate, information accumulation and efficiency of investments. Positive spillovers between a port and its tenants lead to under-investment, which can be corrected by coordination between stakeholders. However, since there are risks of “overinvestment” (the marginal benefits of investments are zero ex post if there is no disaster), regulatory intervention is not always optimal when the regulator does not have a good understanding of disaster probability distribution. Therefore, scientific research would bring significant economic and strategic value to policy, planning and investment decisions.     

Parking Benefit Districts – The transferability of a measure to reduce car dependency to a European context

Parking Benefit Districts (PBDs) are a parking measure where revenues from on-street parking charges are returned to the area where they are charged, and stakeholders in the area participate in prioritizing how the revenues are to be spent. The purpose of this article is to analyse whether and how a PBD programme can be transferred to a European context, and whether it can contribute to reduced car dependency. The first part of the article provides an overview of some salient features of PBD programmes in the USA through a literature survey. This is followed by results from interviews and from a focus group with civil servants and a deputy mayor in Stockholm. The results are used to analyse the conditions for implementing a PBD programme in Stockholm, as well as for analysing how such a programme can be designed to reduce car dependency. A main conclusion is that there are no legal barriers that render a PBD programme impossible in Stockholm, even though there are some legal restrictions. We also conclude that a PBD programme might contribute to reduced car dependency in two different ways, either by increasing acceptance for parking charges or by improving the alternatives to private cars. There seem to be several aspects in a PBD programme that can contribute to increased acceptance for parking charges. However, there is no tradition of working with these principles in Sweden and the programme’s redistributional effects need to be taken into account when designing the programme.     

浮船坞供电系统改造的效益分析

中海工业有限公司菠萝庙船厂浮船坞供电系统改造成功,在生产、安全与环保等层面上均取得明显的效益。总结相关的数据可为同类型船厂提供参考。     

Improving airline fuel efficiency via fuel burn prediction and uncertainty estimation

Reducing fuel consumption is a unifying goal across the aviation industry. One fuel-saving opportunity for airlines is the possibility of reducing discretionary fuel loading by dispatchers. In this study, we propose a novel discretionary fuel estimation approach that can assist dispatchers with better discretionary fuel loading decisions. Based on the analysis on our study airline, our approach is found to substantially reduce unnecessary discretionary fuel loading while maintaining the same safety level compared to the current fuel loading practice. The idea is that by providing dispatchers with more accurate information and better recommendations derived from flight records, unnecessary fuel loading and corresponding cost-to-carry could both be reduced. We apply ensemble learning techniques to improve fuel burn prediction and construct prediction intervals (PIs) to capture the uncertainty of model predictions. The upper bound of a PI can then be used for discretionary fuel loading. The potential benefit of this approach is estimated to be $61.5 million in fuel savings and 428 million kg of CO₂ reduction per year for our study airline. This study also builds a link between discretionary fuel estimation and aviation system predictability in which the proposed models can also be used to predict benefits from reduced fuel loading enabled by improved Air Traffic Management (ATM) targeting on improved system predictability.     

科学筹措资金强化财会管理提高经营效益为实现铁路跨越式发展做出更大贡献--在全国铁路财会工作会议上的报告(摘要)

“十五”以来,全路财会工作在提高运输经营效益、保证铁路建设生产发展资金、深化财务管理体制改革、规范资金管理和加强财会信息化建设等方面取得了良好的成绩。进入“十一五”,面临新形势,提出铁路财务工作的总体思路,其目标是在资金筹措、运输经营效益、运输财务体制改革、加强财会管理和提高财会人员素质方面有新的突破。2006年铁路财会工作的重点是科学筹集确保资金供给、挖潜提效确保年度经营目标、大力推进全面预算管理、实现基本建设财务有序可控、深化各项改革、完善铁路国有资产管理监督体系、推进财会信息化建设、规范财会工作、提高财会队伍素质,努力开创“十一五”工作新局面。     

未来世界经济的发动机:中国-东盟自由贸易区

根据中国经济的巨大影响力以及与东盟在世界经济体系中所产生的重要作用，就主权、互利性存在的差异、摩擦和矛盾等进行分析。并就贸易增长、贸易结构进一步合理化等加以阐述。