The multi‐actor,multi‐criteria analysis methodology (MAMCA) for the evaluation of transport projects: Theory and practice

In this paper the multi‐actor multi‐criteria analysis (MAMCA) method to evaluate transport projects is presented. This evaluation method specifically focuses on the inclusion of qualitative as well as quantitative criteria with their relative importance, defined by the multiple stakeholders, into one comprehensive evaluation process in order to facilitate the decision making process by the different stakeholders. The MAMCA methodology is introduced by an overview of other evaluation methods for transport projects in the past and is illustrated by means of two practical cases. The introduction will lead us to the theoretical conception of the MAMCA method where we draw the attention to the proven usefulness of the MAMCA for the evaluation of transport projects and the inclusion of different kinds of stakeholders, individuals as well as groups, into the evaluation process.     

A copula-based joint multinomial discrete–continuous model of vehicle type choice and miles of travel

In this paper, a joint model of vehicle type choice and utilization is formulated and estimated on a data set of vehicles drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The joint discrete–continuous model system formulated in this study explicitly accounts for common unobserved factors that may affect the choice and utilization of a certain vehicle type (i.e., self-selection effects). A new copula-based methodology is adopted to facilitate model estimation without imposing restrictive distribution assumptions on the dependency structures between the errors in the discrete and continuous choice components. The copula-based methodology is found to provide statistically superior goodness-of-fit when compared with previous estimation approaches for joint discrete–continuous model systems. The model system, when applied to simulate the impacts of a doubling in fuel price, shows that individuals are more likely to shift vehicle type choices than vehicle usage patterns.

齐次边界条件下圆柱壳的自由振动研究

基于Flügge弹性薄壳理论研究圆柱壳在齐次边界条件下的自由振动问题.圆柱壳的自振频率通过位移控制方程和边界条件控制方程联立求解获得.引入一般形式的位移函数之后,位移控制方程能够得到关于频率和波数的频散图,联合边界条件后转化为8阶矩阵行列式的零点求解.讨论自振频率点在频散曲线中的位置,给出纯虚数曲线分支的含义.还讨论精确解和常用梁方法的联系,研究振型在3个频率区域变化的情况.     

椭圆余弦波对圆弧型固立防波堤的绕射波浪力

基于椭圆余弦波绕射理论,应用特征函数展开法,推导浅水波对圆弧型固立防波堤绕射的波势解,据此计算作用于防波堤的水平波浪载荷。结果表明:浅水波入射角与非线性影响参数、海况条件以及防波堤几何条件等因素的相对变化对波浪作用均存在一定的影响。与微幅波理论对比可知:在一定浅水条件下采用椭圆余弦波一阶分量模型所计算的最大无量纲波浪力均明显高于微幅波理论的对应估值,反映了水波非线性因素的影响效应。     

Investigating heterogeneity in social influence by social distance in car-sharing decisions under uncertainty: A regret-minimizing hybrid choice model framework based on sequential stated adaptation experiments

The present study is designed to investigate social influence in car-sharing decisions under uncertainty. Social influence indicates that individuals’ decisions are influenced by the choices made by members of their social networks. An individual may experience different degrees of influence depending on social distance, i.e. the strength of the social relationship between individuals. Such heterogeneity in social influence has been largely ignored in the previous travel behavior research. The data used in this study stems from an egocentric social network survey, which measures the strength of the social relationships of each respondent. In addition, a sequential stated adaptation experiment was developed to capture more explicitly the effect of social network choices on the individual decision-making process. Social distance is regarded as a random latent variable. The estimated social distance and social network choices are incorporated into a social influence variable, which is treated as an explanatory variable in the car-sharing decision model. To simultaneously estimate latent social distance and the effects of social influence on the car-sharing decision, we expand the hybrid choice framework to incorporate the latent social distance model into discrete choice analysis. The estimation results show substantial social influence in car-sharing decisions. The magnitude of social influence varies according to the type of relationship, similarity of socio-demographics and the number of social interactions.     

新政电航枢纽船闸引航道口门区通航条件研究

笔者论述了嘉陵江新政电航枢纽船闸引航道口门区通航水流条件,探讨了船闸引航道导航墙的结构、布置对口门区水流条件的影响,提出了改善引航道口门区通航水流条件的措施.     

连云港外海含沙量推求及航道回淤预测

目前国内在研究淤泥质海岸航道回淤时,通常仅有近岸含沙量的实测资料,而外海含沙量较难获得。为此,建议可以利用实测的航道淤积、近岸含沙量等资料,根据刘家驹的航道回淤计算公式,近岸率定淤积系数,反推外海泥沙含量,据此进行航道回淤预测。经过连云港7万吨级进港航道验证,计算的航道回淤与实测值吻合较好,在此基础上,对拟建的连云港15万吨级航道回淤进行了预测。研究结果表明,所提出的方法切实可行,计算结果合理可信,可以作为相似条件下航道泥沙回淤计算的参考。     

考虑抽样时间间隔的特殊单臂Bandit报酬过程

应用动态规划向后归纳法和贝叶斯方法,研究了一类特殊单臂Bandit报酬过程的最优决策问题。在这个模型中,未知Bandit过程是抽样时间间隔服从负指数分布,抽样值服从Erlang(2)分布,允许在任意时刻跳转的Bandit报酬过程。讨论了这类Bandit报酬过程Gittins指数的单调性质,并在此基础上将包含这类过程的单臂Bandit报酬过程的最优决策问题简化为一个最优停止问题,构造了计算过程最优停止时间的算法。     

路线控制点距公路中线最短距离自动求解算法研究

讨论了公路选线时与平面线形设计有关的路线控制点距公路中线最短距离的计算机自动求解算法问题，提出了求解的新算法——步长压缩摆动趋近法。该算法在各种平曲线类型情况下均是可行的。     

铁路人身安全防护现状分析与关键对策研究

有效保障铁路施工人员的人身安全,是国内铁路建设与运营亟需解决的问题之一。概述国内外铁路人身安全形势,分析人工防护管理体系与既有各类技术防护方法的弊端,从列车定位、人员定位、综合通信与预警模型构建等4个方面详细研究关键对策。