(Unintended) Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka

Motor vehicles are one of the major sources of air pollution in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The government took various policies to convert the petroleum vehicles on road to run on compressed natural gas (CNG), which allows both air quality improvements and energy security benefits. One of the market friendly policies to encourage the fuel switch was to increase the price differential between CNG and petrol and diesel. This has allowed a wide-scale adoption of CNG as the fuel of choice. However, several years into the policy, there is now a widespread belief among the policymakers that the CNG conversion may have increased car ownership and car travel due to their lower running costs, resulting in more congestion and a reversal of the strategy is on the cards. It is therefore important to test the hypothesis whether CNG conversion had genuinely increased car ownership and car travel in Dhaka city. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey and an econometric intervention analysis to understand the impact of CNG conversion on car ownership and car travel in Dhaka. Attention is also given to disentangle the self-selection and price-induced travel effects of CNG conversion. Results show that ownership did not increase, but travel of on-road vehicles increased due to the CNG policy. However, additional congestion costs are still around one half of the health benefits brought about by the policy.     

Order-first split-second methods for vehicle routing problems: A review

Cluster-first route-second methods like the sweep heuristic (Gillett and Miller, 1974) are well known in vehicle routing. They determine clusters of customers compatible with vehicle capacity and solve a traveling salesman problem for each cluster. The opposite approach, called route-first cluster-second, builds a giant tour covering all customers and splits it into feasible trips. Cited as a curiosity for a long time but lacking numerical evaluation, this technique has nevertheless led to successful metaheuristics for various vehicle routing problems in the last decade. As many implementations consider an ordering of customers instead of building a giant tour, we propose in this paper the more general name of ordering-first split-second methods. This article shows how this approach can be declined for different vehicle routing problems and reviews the associated literature, with more than 70 references.     

如何正确处理竣工结算中征地拆迁和签证及价差费用问题

建设工程的竣工结算,是确定工程造价的必要程序和重要手段,也是控制投资的最终环节.如何遵照合法、平等、诚信的原则,正确处理征地拆迁、签证及价差调整中存在的有关问题,此文依据政策文件、承发包合同约定和相关协议及交易习惯进行探讨,并提出方法和建议.以求达到维护国家利益和合同双方当事人的合法权益。     

Verifying liner Shipping Alliance’s stability by applying core theory

The core is a vital concept in cooperative game theory and has been widely used in analyzing alliance’s stability. It is especially interesting to apply core theory in liner shipping market due to the latter’s exceptional characteristic of non-homogeneous cost curves as well as divisible and fluctuant demand. Having observed some new phenomena and trends in the industry, this paper studies the economic performance and stability of liner shipping alliance by applying core theory where business cooperation is partly realized by delivering joint-service with mega container ships. To demonstrate the core situation in liner shipping alliance, a cost function is first identified on the basis of two assumptions regarding cooperation: 1) sharing or pooling vessels and 2) deploying mega container ships if needed. Taking cost functions as basis, two conditions of approaching core may be groomed, i.e., collective rationality and individual rationality. The first condition is discussed from the perspective of market, while the second condition is studied within the alliance. Stability of liner shipping alliance is then observed based on these two conditions. An illustrative case study is conducted in order to show some implications and explicitly clarify the theory.     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

论述沥青混凝土路面施工质量管理与费用控制

结合工程实例,对完成工程的关键要素进行分析,介绍了沥青混凝土路面施工质量管理与费用控制的经验。     

Vehicle restrictions and CO2 emissions in Beijing – A simple projection using available data

The Beijing Government launched a new policy on restricting vehicle ownership in late 2010 to regulate the faster motorization and the excessive vehicular carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In this paper, we first analyzed this policy and its effect on private passenger vehicle population. The private passenger vehicle population in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 was predicted under three different scenarios: no constraint (NC), current constraint (CC) and tighter constraint (TC). Then the assessment of vehicular emissions reduction benefits was made on the basis of private passenger vehicle population, vehicle kilometers traveled and CO₂ emission factors. It was projected that the CO₂ emissions in 2020 will reach 23.90, 15.55 and 13.23 million tons under NC, CC and TC respectively. The policy is very effective in controlling the faster motorization and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Controlled mechanical vibration applied to driver’s right heel to sustain alertness: Effects on cardiovascular behavior

Vehicle-related countermeasures to sustain driver’s alertness might improve traffic safety. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of somatosensory 20 Hz mechanical vibration, applied to driver’s right heel during prolonged, simulated, monotonous driving, on their cardiovascular hemodynamic behavior. In 12 healthy young male volunteers, during 90-min periods of simulated monotonous driving, we compared cardiovascular variables during application of 20 Hz mechanical vibration with 1.5 Hz as a control and with no vibration. The parameters recorded were indices of key cardiovascular hemodynamic phenomena, i.e., blood pressure as an indicator of stress, cardiac output, and total peripheral-vascular resistance. The principle results were that all conditions increased the mean blood pressure, and elicited a vascular-dominant reaction pattern typically observed in monotonous driving tasks. However, mean blood pressure and total peripheral-vascular resistance during the monotonous task were significantly decreased in those receiving the 20 Hz vibration as compared with 1.5 Hz and with no vibration. The observed differences indicate the cardiovascular system being more relieved from monotonous driving stress with the 20 Hz vibration. The major conclusion is that applying 20 Hz mechanical vibration to the right heel during long-distance driving in non-sleepy drivers could facilitate more physiologically appropriate status for vehicle operation and could be a potential vehicular countermeasure technology.     

翻车机牵车驱动装置优化改造

针对翻车机牵车驱动装置在设计上存在问题,从机械结构和电气控制上进行了分析,并相应地进行了优化改造,使之更合理,消除了故障隐患。