论高速铁路建设征地拆迁概算控制

在阐述高速铁路建设征地拆迁现状和存在主要问题的基础上,结合《铁路运输安全保护条例》和《铁路基本建设工程设计概(预)算编制办法》,论述铁路建设工程征地拆迁范围的界定、征地拆迁费用类别的界定,分析征地拆迁数量及标准发生变化超出设计调查的原因,提出工程前期、实施期间、后期3个阶段对征地拆迁费用进行有效控制的措施,并提出改进概预算编制办法的3条建议。     

基于期权理论的铁路货运定价模型

为了规避铁路运输企业和协议客户在市场价格波动情况下所面临的风险,在铁路货运的定价过程中引入期权的概念,利用二叉树模型为期权定价,在此基础上构建了基于铁路运输企业和协议客户收益最大条件下的铁路货运定价模型。研究结果表明:通过铁路运输企业和协议客户的最优定价决策可以求得铁路运输企业制定的协议价格和协议客户的期权购买量;协议价格与现货市场价格正相关,与铁路运输企业的长期准备成本正相关、短期准备成本负相关;随着期权价格和期权执行价格的升高,协议客户在契约市场所购买的期权数量逐渐减少。     

Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

Uncertain demand,modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation

A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission.     

收费公路计重定价理论模型

为了遏制超限运输,解决公路通行费征收中的不公平问题,必须改变目前按车型收费的计费模式,实施计重收费。建立计重收费的定价理论模型是推动这种收费方式健康发展的关键。在提出计重收费定义和类型的基础上,根据公路的准公共产品特性,分析了各种价格结构管制定价模式的特点,提出公路收费宜采用非线性的"两部定价"理论模型。结合收费公路费用分摊的具体方法,给出了收费公路计重定价理论模型,并对相关参数进行了标定。该模型已在江苏省和青海省计重收费标准制定中使用。     

A cross-country study of fairness and infringement on freedom as determinants of car owners' acceptance of road pricing

Jakobsson et al. (2000) found that in Sweden public acceptance of road pricing decreases if it is perceived to be unfair and to infringe on freedom. The present study reports a survey investigating whether the same effects are found in the Asian countries of Japan and Taiwan. The results indicate that fairness plays the same role. However, income had a direct effect on acceptance in Taiwan but not in Japan or Sweden.     

高速公路可变收费标准模型研究

在介绍可变收费的理论基础上,分析影响高速公路可变收费标准制定的主要因素,并讨论不同时段收费费率同交通量的关系。在设定的可变收费方案下,建立了出行者选择的二元logit模型,根据调研样本,采用最小二乘法对模型参数标定并对设定的可变收费方案进行评价,结果证明可变收费能使交通流在各时段合理分布,从而提高了高速公路的服务水平。     

保价运输与运输保险的竞合关系研究

通过分析铁路保价运输与运输保险之间竞合关系,建立保价运输市场份额模型和利润模型。其中,市场份额模型包括自然增长模型、合作模型、竞争模型与竞合模型。在此基础上,确定铁路保价运输在与运输保险竞合关系基础上的最优保价费率模型,分析二者的竞合关系对保价运输费率和保价运输市场份额的影响。     

施工总承包模式的全过程投资控制浅见

通过对做好造价控制的若干环节来论述施工总承包模式的全过程项目投资控制。     

浅谈综合工费对铁路隧道机械化施工经济性影响

为分析研究综合工费对大型机械钻爆法施工概算费用的影响,以3条新建双线铁路隧道项目数据为依托,核算出不同施工模式下的经济指标及工程费用;建立基期综合工费单价理论计算模型,计算出不同施工模式、不同围岩等级条件下新建铁路双线隧道临界综合工费单价。通过与普通钻爆法对比,大型机械钻爆法施工建造费用增长约10%;当基期综合工费高于226. 54元/工日时,大型机械钻爆法施工的经济性得以体现。