延误条件下地铁车站客流的引导需求分析及信息服务对策

在高客流负荷和网络化运营条件下,列车延误会导致短时段内车站滞留客流激增,为防范拥塞导致的安全风险,地铁车站会启动预案及时引导客流。从乘客感知角度出发,调查并分析列车延误条件下乘客的出行计划改变意愿、信息需求偏好,研究表明,在不同程度的列车延误情景下,乘客出行计划改变及决策所需的信息需求存在显著差异。对站内客流引导服务现状进行调查,结果表明,乘客对于人工引导的依赖性最高,现有信息化引导措施与乘客的期望尚存差距。在此基础上,提出延误客流信息服务综合提升对策,以提升延误条件下乘客信息服务满意水平。     

以圆弧参数为设计变量的车轮型面优化数学模型研究

在分析圆弧型车轮型面几何特点的基础上,提出用4段圆弧描述车轮型面与钢轨的接触部分.以4段圆弧中两端圆弧的半径和两中间圆弧的圆心坐标为设计变量,以轮轨磨耗、临界速度和轮轨横向力为目标函数,以满足对最大接触应力、脱轨系数、滚动疲劳因子、临界速度和轮轨横向力的要求为约束条件,建立圆弧型车轮型面多目标优化模型.以欧洲时速200 km标准铁路客车为例,采用给出的车轮型面多目标优化模型对其车轮型面进行优化.结果表明:车轮型面经1次优化的车辆运行在半径为3 000m的曲线线路上时一位轮对车轮的总磨耗指数下降约15％,但车辆的临界速度仅为75 m· s-1;通过调整设计变量的取值范围,进行车轮型面优化,得到最优车轮型面Wheel_ Opt,采用此车轮型面的车辆在同样线路上一位轮对车轮的总磨耗指数下降约12％,临界速度提高至105.9m· s-1.     

基于混沌理论的铁路客货运量预测研究

应用混沌理论的相空间重构方法,分析与铁路运量相关的12组时间序列,分别计算它们的嵌入延迟时间、嵌入维数、关联维数、最大Lyapunov指数等混沌统计量,并以此为依据判断12组时间序列的混沌特性。结果显示:铁路客货运量及周转量不具有混沌特性,对应的4组时间序列不是混沌的;铁路客货运量、周转量的增量及增长率都具有明显的混沌特性,它们对应的8组时间序列是混沌的。在识别是否混沌的基础上,应用基于最大Lyapunov指数预测方法,对铁路客货运量、周转量进行预测检验及预测结果分析。     

分布式网络控制系统的输出反馈控制

建立了同时具有前向通道传输时延和反馈通道传输时延的线性分布式网络控制系统的数学模型.用该数学模型将系统变换为具有状态与控制时变时滞的线性时滞系统.基于代数Riccati方程方法,提出了H∞鲁棒输出反馈控制方法,以使系统闭环控制稳定.仿真算例结果表明,在t=2.5 s时,系统状态都达到了0,保证了系统具有较快的零状态响应速度.给出了这类系统的H∞鲁棒输出反馈控制器的综合设计示例.     

A methodology for identifying similar days in air traffic flow management initiative planning

This article describes a methodology for selecting days that are comparable in terms of the conditions faced during air traffic flow management initiative planning. This methodology includes the use of specific data sources, specific features of calendar days defined using these data sources, and the application of a specific form of classification and then cluster analysis. The application of this methodology will produce results that enable historical analysis of the use of initiatives and evaluation of the relative success of different courses of action. Several challenges are overcome here including the need to identify the appropriate machine learning algorithms to apply, to quantify the differences between calendar days, to select features describing days, to obtain appropriate raw data, and to evaluate results in a meaningful way. These challenges are overcome via a review of relevant literature, the identification and trial of several useful models and data sets, and careful application of methods. For example, the cluster analysis that ultimately selects sets of similar days uses a distance metric based on variable importance measures from a separate classification model of observed initiatives. The methodology defined here is applied to the New York area, although it could be applied by other researchers to other areas.     

Modeling delay at signalized intersections with channelized right‐turn lanes considering the impact of blockage

This paper presents a probabilistic delay model for signalized intersections with right‐turn channelization lanes considering the possibility of blockage. Right‐turn channelization is used to improve the capacity and to reduce delay at busy intersections with a lot of right‐turns. However, under heavy traffic conditions the through vehicles will likely block the channelization entrance that accrues delay to right‐turn vehicles. If the right‐turn channelization gets blocked frequently, its advantage in reducing the intersection delay is neglected and as a result the channelization lane becomes inefficient and redundant. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) neglects the blockage effect, which may be a reason for low efficiency during peak hours. More importantly, using HCM or other standard traffic control methods without considering the blockage effects would lead to underestimation of the delay. To overcome this issue, the authors proposed delay models by taking into account both deterministic and random aspects of vehicles arrival patterns at signalized intersections. The proposed delay model was validated through VISSIM, a microscopic simulation model. The results showed that the proposed model is very precise and accurately estimates the delay. In addition, it was found that the length of short‐lane section and proportion of right‐turn and through traffic significantly influence the approach delay. For operational purposes, the authors provided a step‐by‐step delay calculation process and presented approach delay estimates for different sets of traffic volumes, signal settings, and short‐lane section lengths. The delay estimates would be useful in evaluating adequacy of the current lengths, identifying the options of extending the short‐lane section length, or changing signal timing to reduce the likelihood of blockage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An exact modelling of the uniform control traffic delay in undersaturated signalized intersections

The average delay experienced by vehicles at a signalized intersection defines the level of service (LOS) at which the intersection operates. A major challenge in this regard is the ability to accurately estimate all the components underlying the overall control delay, including the uniform, incremental and initial queue delays. This paper tackles this challenging task by proposing a novel exact model of the uniform control delay component with a view to enhancing the accuracy of the existing approximate models, notably, the one reported in the Highway Capacity Manual 2010. Both graphical and analytical proofs are employed to derive exact closed‐form expressions for the uniform control delay at undersaturated signalized intersections. The high degree of accuracy of the proposed models is analysed through extensive simulations to demonstrate their abilities to exactly characterize the performance of real‐life intersections in terms of the resulting vehicle delay. Unlike the existing widely adopted uniform delay models, which tend to overestimate the LOS of real‐life intersections, the delay models introduced in this paper have the merit of exactly capturing such a LOS. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于行人的信号交叉口右转车控制条件

针对保障行人过街道舒适性和安全性的信号控制问题,考虑行人的过街需求,分右转车与两进口行人完全分离、特定时间段右转控制两种条件,建立信号控制延误和行人干扰延误的分析模型,进而提出相应的右转车辆控制条件。以一四相位十字形信号交叉口为研究对象,采用与左转相位相同和进口人行道绿灯相位禁行两种控制方式进行应用仿真,结果表明,在右转车流量一定时,右转车不受控制时延误与行人流量成正比,当行人流量达到1 000人/h、右转车流量达到400 veh/h时,右转车延误超过C级服务水平延误值的上限;实施控制后,右转车延误随流量的增加而递增,与行人流量无关,且第2种控制方式下的延误更小。     

不确定性时滞系统时滞相关鲁棒镇定

讨论了具有状态时滞的数值界不确定性线性系统的时滞相关鲁棒控制问题.将矩阵分解的思想应用于线性时滞系统的控制综合,利用Lyapunov-Krasovskii泛函方法,通过牛顿-莱布尼茨各项相互关系引入"0"阵,得到了系统的一种新的经过状态反馈控制后可鲁棒镇定的、基于LMI的、保守性较低的时滞相关条件.该方法既不需要对原系统进行模型变换,也不需要对交叉项进行界定.用算例说明了该方法的有效性.     

不确定多包传输网络控制系统的分析与设计

针对短时延的多包传输网络控制系统,研究了数据包传输次序不确定情况下系统的建模及控制问题.引入了补偿器来补偿多包传输过程中部分数据丢失对系统的影响,同时考虑不确定短时延的影响,将其建模成一类具有参数不确定的离散随机切换系统,并对系统的稳定性进行了分析.仿真结果证明了该方法的有效性.