The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。     

全回转起重船多系统耦合运动响应仿真分析

根据运动学基本原理,计入船-吊物、船-锚链耦合影响以及起重船自身受到的外环境载荷,建立船舶多系统运动模型。利用MATLAB/Simulink软件进行仿真,对多系统耦合作用下的船舶运动进行数值分析。分别在不同的遭遇浪向角和不同的吊臂回转角下,对船舶在各自由度上的位移进行比较,得到其对船舶运动参数的影响规律。结果表明:起重船运动过程中因计入多系统耦合影响,自身运动也表现出更为符合实际的运动特性,为准确预报全回转起重船多系统的运动响应提供了更为科学的理论依据。     

可变截面涡轮增压瞬态性能仿真研究

为研究可变截面涡轮喷嘴开度对发动机的性能影响,建立GT-power和MATLB/Simulink联合仿真模型。采用GT-power软件建立的TBD234V12可变截面涡轮增压柴油机仿真模型研究发动机稳态性能,联合MATLB/Simulink软件建立的可变截面涡轮增压柴油机控制模型,对发动机瞬态性能进行仿真计算。结果表明:在发动机瞬态工况下,可变截面涡轮增压系统可以明显改善常规增压柴油机的动力性、经济性和动态响应特性,并且有效降低增压柴油机的时滞性,涡轮迟滞时间的降幅约为30%。     

Numerical Simulation of Advanced Geological Forecasting Based on Multi- Source Seismic Interferometry北大核心CSCD

For existing advanced geological forecasting, the forecast distance is short and the test frequency is high, increasing test and construction risks. Since various methods have different requirements for the test environ-ment, preparation work can be tedious and result in a long construction time thereby affecting normal construction.A new advanced geological forecast technique based on multi-source seismic interferometry for tunnels is proposed.This technique uses the blast at one end of tunnel as a centrum and receives the signal at the other end of the tun-nel, therefore allowing advanced geological forecasting of the unexcavated tunnel part by relative processing and im-aging. A numerical simulation of this kind of geological forecasting using the finite difference method to simulate two kinds of unfavorable geological bodies (karst and a fault) predicted them accurately and verified the effective-ness and accuracy of this geological forecasting method. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Mechanism of Tunnel Water Inflow Caused by Bending Failure of a Waterproof Dike Based on a Circular Thin Plate Mechanical Model北大核心CSCD

Water bursts during tunnel construction endanger construction, and it is therefore necessary to reserve a waterproof dike with the required thickness to avoid water bursts and to take reinforcement of the dike and treatment of the structure liable to trigger a water burst. Using the water burst at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel of the Shanghai-Chengdu expressway as an example, and considering the type of tunnel section and the upright mudstone of the dike, the waterproof dike at the work face is simplified as a round thin plate. A formula for the calculation of a minimum safety thickness for the critical waterproof dike is deduced by analyzing the force applied on the water-proof dike, and the minimum safety thickness for the water burst section at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is cal-culated. The numerical simulation analysis demonstrates the critical thickness of waterproof dike at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is 1.4-1.55 m, and the calculated water inflow and water burst basically agree with the actual condition. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Effect of Explosion in a Gas Pipeline Compartment of a Utility Tunnel on Neighboring Metro Tunnels北大核心CSCD

In this paper the numerical simulation analysis of the effect of explosion in the gas pipeline compartment of a utility tunnel on neighboring metro tunnels was conducted using the software AUTODYN. The results show that the TNT equivalent in a fireproof partition with length of 200 m is 41.6 kg when the gas concentration in the gas pipeline compartment reaches 10%; the blast wave has much effect on the crown and arch waist of the round metro tunnel and it’s necessary to take some protective measures in both areas; when the surrounding soil is sand, the utili- ty tunnel is above the round metro tunnel and their alignments are in the same direction, the greater the vertical spacing between the utility tunnel and the metro tunnel, the smaller the effect of the blast wave on the metro tunnel; when the vertical spacing is 7.2 m, the maximum dynamic tensile stress is 1.86 MPa (including the static stress value of 1 MPa in the tunnel segment) and it is slightly smaller than the designed tensile strength of metro tunnel (about 1.89 MPa). The maximum vibration velocity and the maximum displacement meet the structural stability require- ments, so it is suggested the vertical spacing between the utility tunnel and metro tunnel shall not be less than 7.2 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis of Ground Response and Structure Stress Induced by PBA Method北大核心CSCD

The application of prefabricated tunnel technology has been become a new research field both in China and abroad. Based on the running tunnel between Yufuhe station and Wangfuzhuang station of Jinan rail transit line R1, a new prefabricated tunnel construction technology, the PBA method is presented. This paper makes a detailed discussion on section form, supporting scheme and construction process of the PBA method. In this study, 3D a new 3D numerical model for PBA method is presented by finite difference numerical simulation software Flac and the construction processes are modeled. The rule of ground surface settlement, ground deformation and structural stress caused by PBA method is studied in detail. Results show that the structure of PBA method can effectively control the deformation magnitude and scope. Stress concentration appears at the prefabricated connection parts and the reinforcement needs to check. The total assembled structure forms the load-bearing system after the completion of the lateral wall. The built-in depth of the precast pile and pile bottom grouting quality should to be ensured to control the displacement of the precast piles. The results of this study will be a useful reference for similar projects in the future. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Emission rates of intermodal rail/road and road-only transportation in Europe: A comprehensive simulation study

Intermodal rail/road transportation combines advantages of both modes of transport and is often seen as an effective approach for reducing the environmental impact of freight transportation. This is because it is often expected that rail transportation emits less greenhouse gases than road transportation. However, the actual emissions of both modes of transport depend on various factors like vehicle type, traction type, fuel emission factors, payload utilization, slope profile or traffic conditions. Still, comprehensive experimental results for estimating emission rates from heavy and voluminous goods in large-scale transportation systems are hardly available so far. This study describes an intermodal rail/road network model that covers the majority of European countries. Using this network model, we estimate emission rates with a mesoscopic model within and between the considered countries by conducting a large-scale simulation of road-only transports and intermodal transports. We show that there are high variations of emission rates for both road-only transportation and intermodal rail/road transportation over the different transport relations in Europe. We found that intermodal routing is more eco-friendly than road-only routing for more than 90% of the simulated shipments. Again, this value varies strongly among country pairs.