Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles: A new approach based on the theory of diffusion of innovations

On the grounds that individuals heavily rely on the information that they receive from their peers when evaluating adoption of a radical innovation, this paper proposes a new approach to forecast long-term adoption of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The concept of resistance is employed to explain why individuals typically tend to defer the adoption of an innovation. We assume that there exists a social network among individuals through which they communicate based on certain frequencies. In addition, individuals can be subject to media advertisement based on certain frequencies. An individual’s perceptions are dynamic and change over time as the individual is exposed to advertisement and communicates with satisfied and dissatisfied adopters. We also explicitly allow willingness-to-pay (WTP) to change as a result of peer-to-peer communication. An individual decides to adopt when (i) there is a need for a new vehicles; (ii) his/her WTP is greater than CAV price; and (iii) his/her overall impression about CAVs reaches a cutoff value. Applicability of the proposed approach is shown using a survey of employees of the University of Memphis. Our results show that the automobile fleet will be near homogenous in about 2050 only if CAV prices decrease at an annual rate of 15% or 20%. We find that a 6-month pre-introduction marketing campaign may have no significant impact on adoption trend. Marketing is shown to ignite CAV diffusion but its effect is capped. CAV market share will be close to 100% only if all adopters are satisfied with their purchases; therefore, the probability that an individual becomes a satisfied adopter plays an important role in the trend of adoption. The effect of the latter probability is more pronounced as time goes by and is also more prominent when CAV price reduces at greater rates. Some caveats may be inserted when considering the study results as the findings are subject to sample bias and data limitations.     

STX1(2)型驮背多功能运输车超偏载检测标准

分析了STX₁₍₂)型驮背多功能运输车对既有超偏载检测方法和标准的适应性,提出了该车的超偏载检测方案,明确了公路货车或半挂车超偏载的检测方法及评判标准。     

浅谈新常态下海员的现状与可持续发展

海员是我国从海洋大国向海洋强国转变的中流砥柱,他们为发展国民经济、保证航运安全和扩大对外开放做出了巨大的贡献。但是从当前形势来分析,我国对海员的教育培训力度和关怀力度却远远跟不上海洋经济的发展。文中主要指出我国海员目前所面临的发展现状,结合国外海员的发展模式及可吸取的经验,对我国海员的可持续发展做出较为全面的策略探讨。     

地下工程注浆技术研究新进展

注浆是土木、水利和矿山等工程建设中重要的防渗和加固技术。文章基于国内外注浆技术研究文献,总结了水泥等颗粒性浆液的“渗滤效应”及“黏度时空变异性”等理论研究成果,论述了非水反应高聚物、CW环氧树脂和微生物菌液等注浆新材料的应用现状及发展前景,介绍了细观力学数值模拟研究的突破性进展,可为地下工程注浆技术发展提供借鉴和启发作用。     

格拉斯磁环匀强磁场分析

以毕奥-萨伐尔定律为基础,建立亥姆霍兹线圈以及格拉斯磁环中心磁场分布模型,并计算了它们内部的轴向磁感应强度分布,绘出了空间分布图,分析了轴向磁感应强度与x、y坐标的关系,分析结果得到了亥姆霍兹线圈和格拉斯磁环内部匀强磁场分布区域,通过比较得到格拉斯磁环内部的匀强磁场区域比亥姆霍兹线圈内部的匀强磁场分布区域更大的结论。     

Locating emergency vehicles with an approximate queuing model and a meta-heuristic solution approach

In this paper, the location of emergency service (ES) vehicles is studied on fully connected networks. Queuing theory is utilized to obtain the performance metrics of the system. An approximate queuing model the (AQM) is proposed. For the AQM, different service rate formulations are constructed. These formulations are tested with a simulation study for different approximation levels. A mathematical model is proposed to minimize the mean response time of ES systems based on AQM. In the model, multiple vehicles are allowed at a single location. The objective function of the model has no closed form expression. A genetic algorithm is constructed to solve the model. With the help of the genetic algorithm, the effect of assigning multiple vehicles on the mean response time is reported.     

放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆 集结排队系统分析

集结模式决定了货车集结过程的结束条件，定点集结是一种高效率的集结方式，有利于提高运输质量.针对放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆集结过程，建立离散时间批到达批服务排队模型，利用嵌入式马尔可夫链方法求得离去时刻瞬时系统集结车辆队长分布，并求得任意时刻车辆集结队长分布，在此基础上分别分析了最小编成辆数，车组大小分布，车流到达强度，服务时间间隔分布对车辆平均集结队长，集结延误时间，效率，一昼夜发送车流量等系统指标的影响.分析结果表明，各因素对车辆集结排队系统影响明显.因此，利用本文提出的模型能为编组站的精细化管理和车流组织优化提供决策参考.     

论孔子人才观的历史定位与普适价值

孔子的人才观虽然产生于春秋时期动荡的社会背景下,却揭示了人才的最本质内涵———＂仁、智、勇＂。三者作为人才内涵的核心三要素,形成一个内在的三角稳定结构,它能够持久地推动包括成才在内的人的生命境界的发展,因而具有超越时代和社会阶层的普适价值。     

Compliance with MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 by ships in the Gulf of Guinea sub-region: Issues,challenges and opportunities

The negative environmental and health impacts association with high sulphur dioxide emissions from shipboard machineries have been raised by various stakeholders within the marine transportation sector. It is against this backdrop that the International Maritime Organisation under the MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 has capped sulphur emission to 0.1% for Sulphur Emission Control Areas and 0.5% for the other shipping nations. However, ship owners in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region are facing multitudes of challenges in meeting up with this new IMO regulation. This paper aims to identify the main barriers hampering effective compliance to this new regulation by ships operating in the GoG, rank the barriers, and then discuss the possible opportunities that may arise as a result of addressing the challenges. To identify the main barriers, experts with several years of experience in the maritime industry from Ghana and Cameroun were used while multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was employed to rank the barriers. Other methods such as fuzzy AHP (FAHP), rank-order centroid (ROC) and TOPSIS were combined to validate the result of the study. The findings indicate that lack of infrastructure, lack of comprehensive marine air pollution laws and high capital and operational costs of sulphur reduction solutions emerged as the top three ranked barriers. The findings of this study can be useful to ship owners and policy makers in dealing with the issues of marine air pollution.     

Adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: Influence from neighbors,family and coworkers

During the last years, many governments have set targets for increasing the share of biofuels in the transportation sector. Understanding consumer behavior is essential in designing policies that efficiently increase the uptake of cleaner technologies. In this paper we analyze adopters and non-adopters of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). We use diffusion of innovation theory and the established notion that the social system and interpersonal influence play important roles in adoption. Based on a nationwide database of car owners we analyze interpersonal influence on adoption from three social domains: neighbors, family and coworkers. The results point primarily at a neighbor effect in that AFV adoption is more likely if neighbors also have adopted. The results also point at significant effects of interpersonal influence from coworkers and family members but these effects weaken or disappear when income, education level, marriage, age, gender and green party votes are controlled for. The results extend the diffusion of innovation and AFV literature with empirical support for interpersonal influence based on objective data where response bias is not a factor. Implications for further research, environmental and transport policy, and practitioners are discussed.