枢纽机场航线网络优化研究

枢纽机场航线网络优化主要解决由于航线网络结构与功能定位不匹配而导致的机场连通性低、航线网络同质化竞争严重、运行效率低下的问题。通过改进引力模型对城市对间的客流量进行预测,以此为预测的客流量为依据之一,以提高机场连通性为目的,构建航线网络优化模型,并进行求解。实现提高枢纽机场连通性、构建符合功能定位的层级网络的目标。并以位于我国中部,具有"连接南北,贯穿东西"地理优势的西安咸阳国际机场为例进行分析。由于国际航线受客观因素较多,本文主要研究国内客运航线,国际及货运不在本文研究之列。     

Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I – Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

The aim of this paper is to remove the known limitations of Deterministic and Stochastic User Equilibrium (DUE and SUE), namely that only routes with the minimum cost are used in DUE, and that all permitted routes are used in SUE regardless of their costs. We achieve this by combining the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete error distributions; the second is a Restricted SUE model with an additional constraint that must be satisfied for unused paths. The overall advantage of these model families consists in their ability to combine the unused routes with the use of random utility models for used routes, without the need to pre-specify the choice set. We present model specifications within these families, show illustrative examples, evaluate their relative merits, and identify key directions for further research.     

Potential-based dynamic pedestrian flow assignment

This study proposes a potential-based dynamic pedestrian flow assignment model to optimize the evacuation time needed for all pedestrians to leave an indoor or outdoor area with internal obstacles and multiple exits, e.g., railway station, air terminal, plaza, and park. In the model, the dynamic loading of pedestrian flows on a two-dimensional space is formulated by a cell transmission model, the movement of crowds is driven by space potential, and the optimization of evacuation time is solved by a proportional swapping process. In this way, the proposed model can be applied to not only efficiently optimize the evacuation process of a crowd with large scale but also recognize local congestion dynamics during crowd evacuation. Finally, a set of numerical examples are presented to show the proposed model’s effectiveness for optimizing crowd evacuation process and its application to design a class of variable guide sign systems.     

Map-induced journey-planning biases for a simple network: A Docklands Light Railway study

A usability study was conducted to identify the most effective prototype Docklands Light Railway map for installation on trains. This comprised a series of tasks that required station finding and also planning of routes between pairs of stations, with response time and accuracy as measures of performance. In addition, subjective ratings of map design were collected via questionnaire-based evaluations, and also ranked preferences between designs. A clear best-option was easily identifiable as a result of this research. The existing design was associated with the most journey planning errors, and two of the prototypes were associated with inefficient journey choices. The latter finding suggested that respondents were using unsophisticated planning strategies that were put at a disadvantage by certain route depictions. This has wider implications for suggestions that schematic maps should maintain topographical relationships in order to facilitate appropriate journey choices, with the danger that the inevitable increased complexity of line trajectories for such designs would simultaneously reduce the ability of passengers to identify the most appropriate routes.     

Stability analysis on a dynamical model of route choice in a connected vehicle environment

Research on connected vehicle environment has been growing rapidly to investigate the effects of real-time exchange of kinetic information between vehicles and road condition information from the infrastructure through radio communication technologies. A fully connected vehicle environment can substantially reduce the latency in response caused by human perception-reaction time with the prospect of improving both safety and comfort. This study presents a dynamical model of route choice under a connected vehicle environment. We analyze the stability of headways by perturbing various factors in the microscopic traffic flow model and traffic flow dynamics in the car-following model and dynamical model of route choice. The advantage of this approach is that it complements the macroscopic traffic assignment model of route choice with microscopic elements that represent the important features of connected vehicles. The gaps between cars can be decreased and stabilized even in the presence of perturbations caused by incidents. The reduction in gaps will be helpful to optimize the traffic flow dynamics more easily with safe and stable conditions. The results show that the dynamics under the connected vehicle environment have equilibria. The approach presented in this study will be helpful to identify the important properties of a connected vehicle environment and to evaluate its benefits.     

A behavioural comparison of route choice on metro networks: Time,transfers, crowding,topology and socio-demographics

Understanding travellers’ behaviour is key element in transportation planning. This article presents a route choice model for metro networks that considers different time components as well as variables related to the transferring experience, train crowding, network topology and socio-demographic characteristics. The route choice model is applied to the London Underground and Santiago Metro networks, to make a comparison of the decision making process of the users on both cities. As all the variables are statistically significant, it is possible to affirm that public transport users take into account a wide variety of elements when choosing routes. While in London the travellers prefer to spend time walking, in Santiago is preferable to spend time waiting. Santiago Metro users are more willing to travel in crowded trains than London Underground users. Both user groups have a similar dispreference to transfers after controlling for the time spent on transfer, but different attitudes to ascending and descending transfers. Topological factors presented on a distorted Metro map are more important than actual topology to passengers’ route choice decisions.     

Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping

Some scholars consider that today’s market conditions are in favor of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) rather than the Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, the number of bulk carriers using the NSR remains extremely limited, despite higher fuel prices since 2009 and subsequent significant fuel savings. In 2013, there were 53 transits via the Arctic, out of which 27 by oil tankers and 6 by bulk carriers. In this article we show that this result might be attributable to a factor, which is not considered in most studies: the spot freight rate to fuel ratio which governs ship owners’ decisions regarding the sailing speed. Due to a low ratio since 2011, the speed of vessels on the SCR is at its lowest level, and potential NSR fuel savings are too limited to provide a viable alternative. We further argue that, contrary to most studies, internalizing NSR environmental benefits marginally improves the attractiveness of the NSR.     

A day-to-day dynamical model for the evolution of path flows under disequilibrium of traffic networks with fixed demand

Transportation networks are often subjected to perturbed conditions leading to traffic disequilibrium. Under such conditions, the traffic evolution is typically modeled as a dynamical system that captures the aggregated effect of paths-shifts by drivers over time. This paper proposes a day-to-day (DTD) dynamical model that bridges two important gaps in the literature. First, existing DTD models generally consider current path flows and costs, but do not factor the sensitivity of path costs to flow. The proposed DTD model simultaneously captures all three factors in modeling the flow shift by drivers. As a driver can potentially perceive the sensitivity of path costs with the congestion level based on past experience, incorporating this factor can enhance real-world consistency. In addition, it smoothens the time trajectory of path flows, a desirable property for practice where the iterative solution procedure is typically terminated at an arbitrary point due to computational time constraints. Second, the study provides a criterion to classify paths for an origin–destination pair into two subsets under traffic disequilibrium: expensive paths and attractive paths. This facilitates flow shifts from the set of expensive paths to the set of attractive paths, enabling a higher degree of freedom in modeling flow shift compared to that of shifting flows only to the shortest path, which is behaviorally restrictive. In addition, consistent with the real-world driver behavior, it also helps to preclude flow shifts among expensive paths. Improved behavioral consistency can lead to more meaningful path/link time-dependent flow profiles for developing effective dynamic traffic management strategies for practice. The proposed DTD model is formulated as the dynamical system by drawing insights from micro-economic theory. The stability of the model and existence of its stationary point are theoretically proven. Results from computational experiments validate its modeling properties and illustrate its benefits relative to existing DTD dynamical models.     

Global convergence of the trial-and-error method for the traffic-restraint congestion-pricing scheme with day-to-day flow dynamics

The traffic-restraint congestion-pricing scheme (TRCPS) aims to maintain traffic flow within a desirable threshold for some target links by levying the appropriate link tolls. In this study, we propose a trial-and-error method using observed link flows to implement the TRCPS with the day-to-day flow dynamics. Without resorting to the origin–destination (O–D) demand functions, link travel time functions and value of time (VOT), the proposed trial-and-error method works as follows: tolls for the traffic-restraint links are first implemented each time (trial) and they are subsequently updated using observed link flows in a disequilibrium state at any arbitrary time interval. The trial-and-error method has the practical significance because it is necessary only to observe traffic flows on those tolled links and it does not require to wait for the network flow pattern achieving the user equilibrium (UE) state. The global convergence of the trial-and-error method is rigorously demonstrated under mild conditions. We theoretically show the viability of the proposed trial-and-error method, and numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate its performance. The result of this study, without doubt, enhances the confidence of practitioners to adopt this method.     

Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector

Arctic sea routes have for long attracted interest from observers and shipping companies because of their shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. The prevalence of sea ice prevented the real development of a significant traffic, but did not prevent research from trying to assess the economic viability of these routes. With the actual present melting of sea ice in the Arctic, this effort at modeling the profitability of Arctic shipping routes received a new impetus. However, the conclusions of these studies vary widely, depending on the chosen parameters and their value. What can be said of these models, from 1991 until 2013, and to what extent can a model be drawn, capitalizing on twenty years of simulations?