筑路机械经济寿命和维修周期的决策方法

应用以机械设备经济寿命为基础的数学模型,给出了确定筑路机械更新和维修周期的新方法。并通过具体实例阐明了这一理论方法的应用。为筑路机械的管理使用提供了科学的依据。     

Comparing travel mode and trip chain choices between holidays and weekdays

Choices of travel mode and trip chain as well as their interplays have long drawn the interests of researchers. However, few studies have examined the differences in the travel behaviors between holidays and weekdays. This paper compares the choice of travel mode and trip chain between holidays and weekdays tours using travel survey data from Beijing, China. Nested Logit (NL) models with alternative nesting structures are estimated to analyze the decision process of travelers. Results show that there are at least three differences between commuting-based tours on weekdays and non-commuting tours on holidays. First, the decision structures in weekday and holiday tours are opposite. In weekday tours people prefer to decide on trip chain pattern prior to choosing travel mode, whereas in holiday tours travel mode is chosen first. Second, holiday tours show stronger dependency on cars than weekday tours. Third, travelers on holidays are more sensitive to changes in tour time than to the changes in tour cost, while commuters on weekdays are more sensitive to tour cost. Findings are helpful for improving travel activity modeling and designing differential transportation system management strategies for weekdays and holidays.     

Probabilistic Modeling of Erroneous Human Response to In-Vehicle Route Guidance Systems: A First Look

An integral component of (in-vehicle) navigation systems is the determination of optimal routes to the desired destination. An implicit assumption in the underlying algorithms is that people do not make mistakes when following the prescribed routes. This is, however, not always consistent with reality, especially when driving in unfamiliar environments. This article presents a first look at the possibility of mistakes when driving. This possibility is formalized in a Markov decision process. It is demonstrated that quite paradoxical situations can occur when accounting for mistakes. As the most interesting—but perhaps extreme—example, we have shown that under certain conditions, it is no longer optimal to recommend drivers to take the shortest route. Instead, a longer route (in certain cases even the longest!) becomes optimal. Numerical results are provided throughout the article to reveal the fundamental properties of this problem.     

投资决策理论在施工企业设备配置中的应用

应用投资决策理论对道路施工企业设备配置中的设备更新是购置还是租赁问题进行分析探讨，以促进企业固定资产合理增值，提高设备的利用率，降低成本     

Decision Support Systems for Public Transport Management: The Athens Public Transport Authority Project

This article reports on an implementation study of a computerised decision support system for public transport management for the Athens Public Transport Authority (APTA). The study analysed the current situation, specified user requirements, determined system functionality, designed the system architecture, organised the project and, finally, planned dissemination activities. The decision support system covers the main public transport management activities of APTA - transport service provision, economic and financial planning, passenger complaints and suggestions, and personnel management - offering its users the possibility to study the potential effects of their decisions before implementation. To achieve this, the system will consist of a data warehousing system, for the integrated management of a wide variety of data sources, and of online analytical processing tools, for information analysis and scenario testing. The system architecture has been designed to offer robustness, flexibility, rich functionality and open connectivity. The system aims to help APTA reduce operational costs and provide a better transport service, attracting more passengers to public transport and reducing, in the process, congestion and pollution.     

数据挖掘技术在行车调整中的应用研究

在对行车调整问题进行分析的基础上,结合数据挖掘技术,采用决策树的方法,以寻找连带晚点时间总和最小的调整策略为目标,对以往积累的与运行图相关的数据资源进行分析重构,寻找各故障模式下较优的行车调整策略,并对数据挖掘模型的运行机制进行了论述。该模型在实验室中得到了应用,并取得了良好的效果。     

备件管理和决策支持系统的开发

介绍了新开发的备件管理和决策支持系统软件的功能，体系结构和特点。     

模糊数据库技术在航海避碰决策支持系统中的应用

将航海避碰案例规范化 ,并根据案例中部分信息的不精确性 ,在数据库系统的数据表示和查询中引入模糊技术 ,从而形成了一个模糊关系型的避碰案例数据库系统 ,并将其嵌入到航海避碰决策支持系统当中 ,为安全航行提供了更丰富的决策信息。     

浅谈投标决策和报价应重点掌握的几个问题

编好施工组织设计方案和搞好实地调查,是编好投标报价的基础.只有在此基础上,才能正确抉择合理的投标报价.     

土石方工程施工机械配置智能决策系统研究

通过分析土石方工程施工机械选型及组配在施工中的重要性，以及人工求解问题的主要步骤，提出开发该领域智能决策支持系统的适宜性，对系统的开发思想及策略进行了研究，并初步确定系统的实现步骤及其模型。