A virtual environment for the formulation of policy packages

The interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems and availability of a wide variety of policy measures to address policy problems make the process of policy formulation difficult. In order to formulate sustainable and efficient transport policies, development of new tools and techniques is necessary. One of the approaches gaining ground is policy packaging, which shifts focus from implementation of individual policy measures to implementation of combinations of measures with the aim of increasing efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions by increasing synergies and reducing potential contradictions among policy measures. In this paper, we describe the development of a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages. By developing systematic approaches it is possible to examine more alternatives at a greater depth, decrease the time required for the overall analysis, provide real-time assessment and feedback on the effect of changes in the configurations, and ultimately form more effective policies. The results from this research demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policy packages. This new approach has been applied to the formulation of policies to advance sustainable transportation.     

改进深度确定性策略梯度的决策算法研究

为解决无人驾驶路径规划过程中的决策控制问题,文章针对深度确定性策略梯度算法在未知环境中随着搜索空间的增大,出现训练效率低、收敛不稳定等缺点,提出了基于奖励指导的改进算法。首先在每回合内采用基于奖励的优先级经验回放,减少深度确定性策略梯度算法随机探索的盲目性,提高智能车学习效率。然后在回合间基于奖励筛选优秀轨迹,便于指导智能车对复杂空间的探索,得到稳定的控制策略。最后,在开源智能驾驶仿真环境进行仿真。实验结果表明改进后的深度确定性策略梯度算法性能优于原来的算法,训练效率和收敛稳定性均得到有效提升。     

Additive models for network data envelopment analysis in the presence of shared resources

This paper studies the problem of evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of specialized and interdependent decision-making subunits that make up a large decision-making unit (DMU). The paper develops a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach for measuring the efficiency of decision processes which can be divided into two stages. In these processes the first stage uses its own inputs to generate outputs which a part of these outputs become the inputs to the second stage. Moreover, DMUs use shared input sources in both operation stages. This paper provides a set of additive models which measure the performance of two-stage network DEA processes with shared inputs. Numerical examples show the applicability of the approach.     

Co-location decision tree for enhancing decision-making of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation

This paper presents a new decision tree induction method, called co-location-based decision tree (CL-DT), to enhance the decision-making of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. The proposed algorithm utilizes the co-location characteristics of spatial attribute data in the pavement database. The paper first presented the co-location mining algorithm, including spatial attribute data selection, determination of rough candidate co-locations, determination of candidate co-locations, pruning the non-prevalent co-locations, and induction of co-location rules, and then focused on the development of the co-location decision tree (CL-DT) algorithm, which includes the non-spatial attribute data selection, co-location algorithm modeling, node merging criteria, and co-location decision tree induction. A pavement database covering four counties, which are provided by North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), is used to verify the proposed method. The experimental results demonstrated that (1) the proposed CL-DT algorithm can make a better decision, and has higher accuracy than the existing decision tree methods do; (2) the training data can be fully played roles in contribution to decision tree induction and the computational time taken for the tree growing, tree drawing and rule generation is largely decreased; (3) quantity and locations of six treatment strategies proposed by the ITRC and by CL-DT is much close for each treatment strategy.     

船舶抗沉计算与决策模型研究

船舶抗沉计算和决策是及时、准确地进行损管行动的基础。依据不沉性理论、数值分析、专家系统和多目标决策理论,建立了船舶的抗沉计算模型和抗沉方案优选决策模型,并以某型船舶为实例进行了数值仿真,结果表明了模型的可行性和有效性。     

Air cargo operations: Literature review and comparison with practices

This study reviews the literature on air cargo operations and compares theoretical studies with the practical problems of airlines, freight forwarders, and terminal service providers. In particular, we review studies in which mathematical models were used to identify the essential characteristics of air cargo operations, such as the intrinsic differences from passenger operations, and to explore the service processes in air cargo operations. The typical models used in previous studies are summarized. We then highlight the insightful findings from an industrial interview and present the gaps between previous research and practical realities. We finally discuss the new research opportunities of air cargo operations according to the gaps.     

Statistical and machine learning approach for planning dial-a-ride systems

Door-to-door transportation service for elderly and persons with disabilities is often called dial-a-ride (DAR), and is usually provided by transit agencies through private contractors. Growth in DAR ridership is reported across the United States and this tendency will likely continue due to aging population. Such trends encourage development of models that can provide decision support in planning new DAR systems or expanding existing ones. Several statistical models were previously developed to predict the required DAR system capacity, given various characteristics of the service region, level-of-service requirements and operator constraints. Our work contributes to this line of research by proposing statistical and machine learning approaches that provide more accurate predictions over a wider range of scenarios. This is accomplished through transformation of variables and application of generalized linear model and support vector regression. Proposed models are built into an online tool that can help transit planners and policy makers: (a) estimate the capacity and operating cost of a DAR system needed to provide the desired level of service, (b) explore tradeoffs between system costs and levels of service, and (c) compare the cost of providing DAR service with other transportation alternatives (e.g., taxi, conventional transit).     

就DM—55型闭路强制循环导热油加热沥青系统谈科技成果评审的价值取向

本文以1990年5月通过鉴定的“DM-55型闭路强制循环导热油加热沥青系统”成果为依据,就其产品的命名,工艺设备本身的安全性,可靠性、先进性等阐述了作者的观点,并对该成果的推广使用提出了几点建设性意见,最终提出了对科技成果,即新产品、新工艺、新设备的评价,要做到多种价值取向,多方位、多层次考虑,才可能利于其推广发展的新见解。     

Capturing tour mode and activity choice interdependencies: A co-evolutionary logit modelling approach

It is generally assumed that the choice of transport mode and the choice of including intermediate activities on a work tour are interrelated, but little is known about the nature of the causal relationship. To shed light on this, this paper addresses the question of whether transport mode choice is dependent on the activity choice or vice-versa. A new methodology, referred to as the co-evolutionary approach, is combined with a set of MNL models, one for each choice facet involved, to derive an indication of the order of decisions on an individual level. The models are estimated based on the work tours of a large sample of individuals in the Netherlands. The results suggest that there is substantial variation in the order of the transport mode and activity decisions. However, in the majority of cases the activity decision is made before the mode decision, suggesting that the transport mode and, in particular, the choice between car and public transport is most often ‘adjusted’ to the choice of trip chaining rather than the other way round.