基于知识的原油运输船港航系统的评价决策模型及分析

我国原油进口是一项长期的国家战略,原油进口量逐年增长,原油进口的的海运需求相当大,所以需要科学合理的原油运输系统的论证、设计和建设。本文从原油运输船型的发展和趋势出发,运用基于知识的最短路径模型,结合综合必要费率对包含船、港、航和货值的原油运输系统经济性进行了计算和分析,从而选择合理的原油运输船型和专用码头的合理吨位。     

建立上海国际航运中心的研究

在上海建立国际航运中心，是尽快把上海建成国际经济、贸易、金融中心的重要组成部分，两者相辅组成。该文对建立国际航运中心的必要性与可能性，基本功能与特征，存在问题，发展目标与建设步骤，从理论上与实际上进行了分析，在此基础上，提出了符合国际经济发展方向、并且有可操作性的结论与建议。     

浅述过水侧石在天津临港经济区清河道道路设计中的应用

多年以来,我国的城市道路建设均使用城市地下雨水管道收集路面雨水,这种方法破坏了原有的雨水循环系统,产生了很多问题。在临港经济区清河道的道路设计中,因地制宜地设计了一种过水侧石,既不破坏原来的雨水循环系统,又极大地降低了工程量。详细介绍这种过水侧石在清河道道路设计中的应用。     

Optimal funding allocation strategies for safety improvements on urban intersections

Urban intersections crashes cause significant economic loss. The safety management process undertaken by most states in the United States is referred to as Highway Safety Improvement Program and consists of three standardized steps: (i) identification of critical crash locations, (ii) development of countermeasures, and (iii) resource allocation among identified crash locations. Often these three steps are undertaken independently, with limited detail of each step at the state planning agencies. The literature review underlines the importance of the third step, and the lack of sophisticated tools available to state planning agencies for leveraging information obtained from the first two steps. Further, non-strategic approaches and unavailability of methods for evaluating policies may lead to sub-optimal funding allocation. This paper overcomes these limitations and proposes multiple optimal resource allocation strategies for improvements at urban intersections that maximize safety benefits, under budget and policy constraints. Proposed policy measures based on benefits maximization (economic competitiveness), equitable allocation (equity), and relaxation of mutually exclusiveness (multiple alternatives at one location) produce significantly different alternative and fund allocation. The proposed models are applied to selected intersections in four counties of southeast Michigan. Results reinforce the applicability of the strategies/policies and tools developed in this paper for safety project funding allocation on critical urban intersections.     

基于运量的国民经济效益网络计算法

通过对现行国民经济效益计算方法的研究,运用交通分配理论论证了现行计算方法中运量分析存在的问题。依据交通分配理论和消费者剩余理论,将交通建设项目吸引区内整个路网作为研究对象,建立了基于运量的国民经济效益网络计算法。实例计算表明该方法的有效性。     

Analysis of the economic and social parameters of the Three-Wheeler Taxi service in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has an extensive Three-Wheeler Taxi service comprised of around 300,000 vehicles. These vehicles, which first made an entry to Sri Lanka’s roads in the early 1980s, account for around 15% of the active motor vehicle fleet at present. Three-Wheelers Taxis also account for around 6% of the passenger kilometres. These vehicles are mostly individually operated with some owned by the operator and others hired on a monthly or daily basis. The industry is unregulated with vehicle registration and driving licenses being the only instruments of regulation. Fares are unregulated. However, most operators belong to associations which are loose collections of operators found in a given locality. These associations impose a degree of self regulation with respect to fares. They also tend to demonstrate oligapolistic behaviour.The paper is based on a survey of 200 operators and 100 passengers from a Divisional Secretariat area in Colombo District. The survey covered a number of details pertaining to ownership, management and fare structures, as well as opinions on the service attributes by users. The survey also covered perceptions of operators to determine the social, economic and transport implications of the services provided. Details were also obtained on the profiles of the operators and their expectations.The paper provides the results of the analysis of this data and draws a number of conclusions on the economics of the industry as well as the social aspects associated with it. It also discusses the characteristics of the users of these three wheelers as well as their typical use. The analysis also investigates complementarily of service provision between three wheelers as an access mode to buses and railways. This analysis has been used to develop an understanding of the manner in which the industry has grown over the last two decades and how it is being operated today. It also identifies areas wherein the industry has become inefficient and assesses the degree of over pricing that exists due to this. The data also helps to determine the relationship between unemployment and provision of self-employed transport services.The paper concludes with a synopsis of the profile of the industry and its role within the wider transport sector and with respect to ownership. It also discusses the positive and negative impacts of the lack of regulation on the industry.     

Competition in Brazilian bus and coach services - The results of recent competitive tendering processes

This paper analyses the terms and the results of a sample of some recent Brazilian bidding processes for the concession of public passenger transport services: namely, urban and metropolitan bus or regional coach services. The analysis is based on selected issues relating to competitiveness and upon the legal framework that applies in this sector. It was concluded that, given the lack of bidding processes for concessions in the bus and coach sector in Brazil, the fact that some bidding processes have been carried out should be considered a sign of progress. However, these auctions have not necessarily prioritised competitiveness, since many barriers to entry into the systems were imposed by the bidding terms. Future competitive tendering processes should seek to abide by stricter principles of competitiveness, if they wish to avoid the entire effort expended on conducting such processes serving only to mask nothing more than formal obedience to the law and to discredit the bidding process in the eyes of Brazilian citizens.     

旧沥青路面厂拌热再生利用经济效益分析模型研究

选择国内外有代表性的厂拌热再生设备,从设备生产成本、旧料回收利用成本、再生剂费用、材料节省费用、总体经济效益等5个方面采用收益现值法量化分析了利用厂拌热再生设备再生利用旧沥青路面的经济效益,并在此基础上建立旧沥青路面厂拌热再生利用经济效益分析模型,分析了不同旧料掺配比率时的经济效益差异.     

Economic impact of non-motorized transportation in Indian cities

Lack of a clear understanding regarding the economic impacts of non-motorized modes is a major reason why they are excluded from the transportation development agenda of cities in India. Keeping this aspect in mind the present study has been divided in to two parts. The first part tries to understand the non-motorized traffic evolution in India. It focuses on the declination of non-motorized modes, necessity to revamp it, the favorable conditions to promote them in India and the relative problems associated with it. It is found here that there is a necessity for defining the role of non-motorized modes in India for the viable implementation of infrastructure and policies related with it.     

A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions

Traditional economic analysis techniques used in the assessment of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are based upon the assumption that future cash flows are fully deterministic in nature and are not designed to account for risks involved in the assessment of future returns. In reality, many of these infrastructure projects are associated with significant risks stemming from the lack of knowledge about future cost and benefit streams. The fundamental premise of the PPP concept is to efficiently allocate risks between the public and the private partner. The return based on deterministic analysis may not depict a true picture of future economic outcomes of a PPP project for the multiple agencies involved. This deficiency underscores the importance of risk-based economic analysis for such projects. In this paper, the authors present the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) to assess the risk share for the public and private entity in a PPP project. Bootstrap simulation is used to generate the risk profile savings in vehicle operating cost, and in travel time resulting from demand-responsive traffic. The VaR for Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is determined for public and private entity. The methodology is applied to a case study involving such a joint venture in India, the Mumbai Pune Expressway/National Highway 4 (MPEW/NH4), and fiscal implications from the perspective of the public and the private entities are examined. A comparison between deterministic and risk based economic analysis for MPEW/NH4 is presented. Risk analysis provides insightful results on the economic and financial implications from each participant's viewpoint.