An Exploration of the Relationship between Timing and Duration of Maintenance Activities

The timing and duration of an activity episode are two important temporal aspects of activity-travel behavior. Understanding the causal relationship between these two variables would be useful in the development of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. This paper investigates the relationship between these two variables by considering two different causal structures – one structure in which time-of-day choice is determined first and influences duration and a second structure in which activity duration is determined first and affects time-of-day choice. These two structures are estimated within a discrete-continuous simultaneous equations framework employing a full-information maximum likelihood methodology that allows error covariance. The estimation is performed separately for commuter and non-commuter samples drawn from a 1996 household travel survey data set from the Tampa Bay area in Florida. The results of the model estimation effort show that the causal structure in which activity duration precedes or affects activity timing (time of day choice) performs better for the non-commuter sample. For the commuter sample, the findings were less conclusive with both causal structures offering equally good statistical measures of fit. In addition, for the commuter sample, all error correlations were found to be zero. These two findings suggest that time of day choice and activity episode duration are only loosely related for the commuter sample, possibly due to the relatively non-discretionary and inflexible work activity and travel.     

深圳市“5.24”暴雨洪水灾后的反思

1998年5月24日，深圳市暴雨成灾，经济损失很大。本文总结和分析了暴雨洪水的特性及其成灾的原因，提出防洪减灾的措施和建议。     

我国汽车金融业的发展现状及趋势展望

首先分析了国内外汽车金融业的发展状况，并从当前我国汽车金融业存在的问题入手，着重从内部和外部环境2个方面进行了分析，从而有针对性地提出了我国汽车金融服务的改革思路和解决相关问题的政策建议，并对未来发展趋势作出理性预测和判断，制度设计上更趋于合理、完善；服务质量和水平逐步与国际接轨；竞争推动下的具有中国特色的金融创新渐趋活跃。在此基础上笔者设想了一种银行一体化的营销模式，权当为未来银行汽车金融业务的开展作一有益尝试。     

以位移为基础的钢筋混凝土连续梁桥抗震设计方法

利用等效线性化方法将钢筋混凝土(RC)连续梁桥结构简化为多自由度线弹性体系,采用振型反应谱的概念研究了结构在横向地震作用下考虑多阶模态效应的直接基于位移的抗震设计方法。探讨了连续梁桥的上部结构(主梁)及桥墩(台)刚度的变化对结构横向振动模态质量与模态周期的影响,给出了多阶模态设计方法的具体设计过程。对对称与非对称连续梁桥采用相同的设计步骤进行基于位移的抗震设计,并对设计算例用非线性时程分析验证了设计结果的合理性。     

路堤荷载下管桩复合地基设计理论的试验研究

介绍了管桩复合地基在某高速公路软基试验工程中的应用,并简单分析了其加固效果,进而结合已有的研究成果,提出了一套路堤下刚性桩复合地基的设计理论。通过工程实践表明,该设计理论具有在工程实践中推广运用的价值。     

军用轻型全地形车的发展现状及趋势分析

介绍了国外军用轻型全地形车的发展现状，分析了轻型全地形车的性能特点和关键技术，对其发展趋势作出了预测。     

双速搅拌工艺

根据传统二次搅拌理论,提出了混凝土双速搅拌工艺,介绍了双速搅拌工艺的原理及优点,并指出了该工艺的实现方案.该工艺的应用可降低生产成本,提高混凝土的强度和生产率.     

抬浮力打捞工程船艉轴轴承热力学有限元仿真

以12 000 t抬浮力打捞工程船为例,采用COMSOL Multiphysics有限元分析软件中的热力学模块对艉轴轴承的散热情况进行研究。介绍轴系布置和艉轴管空舱,分析油膜建立情况下的艉轴轴承热平衡和工作压力分布,进行轴系与艉轴管空舱的热力学有限元仿真。仿真结果满足艉轴轴承的相关要求,并在实船试航中得到验证,表明可取消常规的艉轴管冷却水舱。     

燃料电池船舶复合供能系统控制策略设计与仿真

针对燃料电池船舶复合供能系统中的燃料电池功率波动问题和储能单元电池荷电状态（State of Charge,SOC）极端分化问题,依据系统拓扑结构,提出基于负载功率频率分解与模糊逻辑控制法相结合的复合供能系统控制策略设计。采用实例仿真验证该设计的优势。结果表明,该设计可有效保持燃料电池输出功率平滑,对储能单元SOC具有良好的均衡控制效果。     

船体大开口平直空腔结构总段吊装加强方案优化

为增强船体大开口平直空腔结构总段结构强度,结合船体总段结构特点、吊码布置情况和吊装加强方案建立有限元模型,采用数值仿真模拟总段吊装,分析甲板与吊码区域的结构变形。根据预报结果对吊装加强方案进行优化,可为后续类似结构的吊装加强方案优化提供一定指导。