Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

舵系锥轴锥孔连接受力分析

通过对船舶航行工况条件下锥面连接的受力分析,得出锥面连接的表面接触比压与其能传递的轴向摩擦力和摩擦扭矩关系的计算公式;并对压入安装工况条件下锥面连接的受力分析,得出装配时压入力与接触比压关系的计算公式。通过实例计算,证明该计算方法是可行的。     

钢-混结合梁桥的应用

简述国内外钢-混结合梁桥的发展及分类,对钢-混结合梁桥的适用性及经济性进行比较,详细介绍了德国有代表性的3座钢-混结合梁桥.     

Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

广东省高职院校图书馆信息资源共建共享问题探讨

分析广东省高职院校图书馆信息资源共建共享的必要性、可行性及当前所面临的问题，并提出信息资源共建共享的基本对策。     

石河子互通式立交改扩建方案比选

依据交通量预测与通行能力分析,结合石河子互通式立交的现状,提出改扩建方案,并从经济、技术、收费制式等方面进行改扩建方案比选,可为其他互通式立交的改扩建提供参考.     

Innovative systems for the transportation disadvantaged: Toward more efficient and operationally usable planning tools

When considering innovative forms of public transport for specific groups, such as demand responsive services, the challenge is to find a good balance between operational efficiency and 'user friendliness' of the scheduling algorithm even when specialized skills are not available. Regret insertion-based processes have shown their effectiveness in addressing this specific concern. We introduce a new class of hybrid regret measures to understand better why the behaviour of this kind of heuristic is superior to that of other insertion rules. Our analyses show the importance of keeping a good balance between short- and long-term strategies during the solution process. We also use this methodology to investigate the relationship between the number of vehicles needed and total distance covered - the key point of any cost analysis striving for greater efficiency. Against expectations, in most cases decreasing fleet size leads to savings in vehicle mileage, since the heuristic solution is still far from optimality.     

Development and evaluation of a statistically reliable traffic counting program

This paper reviews the existing procedures to compute the seasonal factors, growth factors, and the number of automatic traffic recorder stations (ATRs) for developing a statistically reliable traffic counting program. The review is based on, (i) theoretical evaluation of the procedures, (ii) analysis of the results obtained from applying these procedures to extensive real life data, and (iii) experience of past researchers with these methods. The paper primarily deals with existing statistical procedures for determining seasonal factors, since it is believed that these factors play the most important role in estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADTs) from short counts. The procedure of cluster analysis (which is most commonly used to determine seasonal factors) is critically reviewed. The shortcomings of this method motivated the development of a different statistical procedure, based on regression analysis, to determine seasonal factors. It is shown that this newly developed method gives better results than the cluster analysis techniques. Furthermore, separate sections are dedicated to a thorough analysis of determination of number of ATR stations and computation of growth factors.     

软土地基桥涵设计方法探析

软土地基是桥梁建设经常遇到的地基问题.针对软土地基的特点及桥梁在软土地基上的设计和建设的原则进行探讨,以期能为我国桥梁建设提供一些有意义的参考.     

黄河流凌河段深水栈桥施工技术

乌锡铁路黄河特大桥桥址位于三湖河口至昭君坟段,北岸为乌拉山山前倾平原,南岸为鄂尔多斯台地,桥址主河道宽710 m,水深3~20 m左右,处于严重的流凌河段,搭建施工栈桥成功与否是确保黄河特大桥顺利施工的关键所在。通过方案比选,确定采用浮桥方式,解决了流凌段栈桥的快速搭拆施工难题,取得了一定的经验。