A game model of international trade,transport costs,invasive species,and protocol compliance

We study the duopolistic interaction between two monopolists located in two different countries who sell an imperfect substitute good in two markets. The traded good is transported between the two nations on ships using solid wood packing materials (SWPMs) and hence the presence of one or more invasive species is a problem. We use a game model to analyze this interaction in three steps. First, we study the benchmark case of autarky or no trade between the two nations. Second, we introduce transport costs and then study the effect of free trade on the profits of the two monopolists. Finally, we suppose that invasive species are present in the SWPMs. This fact requires compliance with an environmental protocol. We model this compliance by increasing the transport costs associated with trade and then demonstrate that a version of the so called Porter hypothesis holds. In other words, we show that compliance with a cost increasing environmental protocol can give rise to higher profits for the two monopolists under consideration.     

Overview of missing physical commodity trade data and its imputation using data augmentation

The physical aspects of commodity trade are becoming increasingly important on a global scale for transportation planning, demand management for transportation facilities and services, energy use, and environmental concerns. Such aspects (for example, weight and volume) of commodities are vital for logistics industry to allow for medium-to-long term planning at the strategic level and identify commodity flow trends. However, incomplete physical commodity trade databases impede proper analysis of trade flow between various countries. The missing physical values could be due to many reasons such as, (1) non-compliance of reporter countries with the prescribed regulations by World Customs Organization (WCO) (2) confidentiality issues, (3) delays in processing of data, or (4) erroneous reporting. The traditional missing data imputation methods, such as the substitution by mean, substitution by linear interpolation/extrapolation using adjacent points, the substitution by regression, and the substitution by stochastic regression, have been proposed in the context of estimating physical aspects of commodity trade data. However, a major demerit of these single imputation methods is their failure to incorporate uncertainty associated with missing data. The use of computationally complex stochastic methods to improve the accuracy of imputed data has recently become possible with the advancement of computer technology. Therefore, this study proposes a sophisticated data augmentation algorithm in order to impute missing physical commodity trade data. The key advantage of the proposed approach lies in the fact that instead of using a point estimate as the imputed value, it simulates a distribution of missing data through multiple imputations to reflect uncertainty and to maintain variability in the data. This approach also provides the flexibility to include fundamental distributional property of the variables, such as physical quantity, monetary value, price elasticity of demand, price variation, and product differentiation, and their correlations to generate reasonable average estimates of statistical inferences. An overview and limitations of most commonly used data imputation approaches is presented, followed by the theoretical basis and imputation procedure of the proposed approach. Lastly, a case study is presented to demonstrate the merits of the proposed approach in comparison to traditional imputation methods.     

我国自船自代型船舶代理公司转型研究

自船自代型船舶代理公司一直都被定义为其母公司的保障部门,在经历了金融危机后,高额的经营成本以及原有业务量的剧减促使自船自代型船舶代理公司转型,开展公共代理业务便成了该类企业的新利润源.文章从自船自代型船舶代理公司自身特点出发通过分析其开展新业务可能遇到的问题,并提出相应的建议     

“新干涉主义”评析

文章从战后国际干预的发展趋势入手,分析了＂新干涉主义＂产生的理论与实践背景,并指出＂新干涉主义＂是霸权主义、强权政治的集中体现,是对国际公认的国际关系的基本原则和《联合国宪章》的公然否定和对抗。虽然其貌似强大,但逆历史潮流而动,始终逃脱不了失败的命运。     

Sailing into a dilemma: An economic and legal analysis of an EU trading scheme for maritime emissions

On the basis of a joint economic and legal analysis, we evaluate the effects of a “regional” (European) emission trading scheme aiming at reducing emissions of international shipping. The focus lies on the question which share of emissions from maritime transport activities to and from the EU can and should be included in such a system. Our findings suggest that the attempt to implement an EU maritime ETS runs into a dilemma. It is not possible to design a system that achieves emission reductions in a cost efficient manner and is compatible with international law.     

Are there bubbles in the shipping freight market?

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the reconsideration of price bubbles specific to the shipping freight market based on the method of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF). This approach offers the opportunity to recognize multiple bubbles and set their corresponding original and final dates. Empirical results reveal that four bubbles existed in the shipping freight market between October 1988 and February 2018 in which freight deviated from fundamental values. Strong demand (especially in China), the supply capacity, crude oil prices and U.S. dollar fluctuations are potential explanations for the first three bubbles. The global financial crisis that burst in 2008 is the major factor results in the last bubble. Hence, we must distinguish the potential reasons of bubbles in different periods and take measures such as promoting economic multipolarization, strengthening the bargaining power of China, building an effective information transfer system, employing financial derivatives and accelerating the consolidation of the shipping industry to alleviate the negative influences on global seaborne trade.     

提高中国海员国际竞争力之我见

随着航海教育国际化和越来越多的中国海员走向世界，如何提高我国航海人才在国际市场上的竞争力是航海教育的一个关键问题。本文以中国海员在国际竞争市场上的优劣势为基础，根据中国航海教育现状．提出了提高我国国际海员素质的几．占、建议和思考。     

特别敏感海域和特殊区域的对比研究

为了减少航运活动对海洋环境产生的危害,国际海事组织分别提出了基于MARPOL公约的"特别区域"和"特别敏感海域"的两个概念,以对一些需要特别保护的海域采取更加严格的措施进行保护。在对这两个概念的提出背景和法律依据进行探讨的基础上,对两种保护区域的申请标准和程序,及相关的保护性措施等进行了比较深入的对比研究,并就目前这两种保护海域最新发展的现状进行了综述。提出应积极推行国际公约及法规来保护我国的海洋环境。     

Determination of the transportable moisture limit of iron ore fines for the prevention of liquefaction in bulk carriers

In 2013, over 500 million metric tons of Iron Ore Fines (IOF) were transported around the world using bulk carriers. Under certain conditions IOF, while being transported, can possibly undergo liquefaction. Since 2006, there has been eight reported bulk carrier casualties possibly caused by the liquefaction of IOF. The objective of this study is to evaluate, compare and verify the limitations and relevance of the Proctor/Fagerberg, Flow Table and Penetration test methods that are used to determine the Transportable Moisture Limit (TML) of IOF. The TML is the maximum gross water content that bulk cargoes, including IOF, may contain while being transported at sea without being at risk of liquefying. A thorough literature review, along with laboratory research, was carried out to compare the TML results from the three leading test methods to determine whether they produce reliable results when testing IOF. The study concludes that the three test methods, as stated in the 2012 International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes Code, are unverified and therefore not appropriate for testing IOF. This is due to the variation in the results produced by the three test methods and also due to the difference in the physical properties of IOF when compared with the materials that were originally intended for testing. It is noted that the TML alone may not control the potential liquefaction of IOF and further studies, regarding the physical properties and system variables, which cause the material to liquefy, are required to determine the liquefaction potential of IOF.     

参数横摇薄弱性衡准研究

鉴于国际海事组织（IMO）第二代完整稳性衡准工作组正在制定参数横摇薄弱性衡准。文章首先编制了参数横摇第一层和第二层薄弱性衡准的计算程序,其中采用解析稳态解法求解横摇响应,并给出了衡准中关键参数即波浪中稳性高变化的计算方法;其次以国际标模 C11集装箱为例详细分析了参数横摇衡准的计算过程,同时分析了横摇阻尼对计算结果的影响;最后通过与试验结果的比较,验证了衡准方法的一致性及程序的可靠性。