中俄规范在铁路钢桁梁桥设计中的应用研究

在某国际铁路钢桁梁桥设计过程中,对中、俄两国现行桥梁设计规范计算结果进行对比,同时,采用中国试行极限状态法规范进行试算,比较3种规范的差异性和计算结果的安全储备。中国两种规范设计结果安全储备相差不大,而与俄方规范相比,不同检算项目相差较大,俄方规范对压杆强度控制更为严格,中国规范对疲劳强度控制更为严格。     

国际工程项目风险识别与应对措施

随着我国建筑企业"走出去"战略的实施,承揽的国际工程项目逐渐增多,但同时承担的项目风险也愈来愈多。到底存在哪些风险,如何进行识别,此文从政治、经济、文化、社会和自然环境等方面进行阐述,并对识别出的项目风险如何进行定性和定量分析,根据分析结果采取何种应对措施,控制风险造成的影响和损失进行论述。     

国际工程报价中汇率风险费的估算

在人民币升值的巨大压力下,在确定国际工程投标报价时,汇率风险在风险分析中的地位越发重要,如果在投标阶段不能合理估算汇率风险费用就有可能使项目蒙受经济损失,从而严重影响涉外施工企业的经济效益。此文重点讨论在国际工程投标报价编制阶段,如何对报价组成中的涉汇费用进行分析,并以此为基础估算汇率风险费用。汇率风险费的估算可以有效规避汇率波动对项目造成的经营风险,保持企业经济效益的稳定。     

重庆万豪国际会展大厦风效应试验研究

重庆万豪国际会展大厦是高度达303m的超高层钢结构，其基阶频率仅0．1234Hz，为了准确确定风荷载及其风致响应，对其进行了风致安全性及舒适性评估．采用风洞模型试验方法，对场地大气边界层进行了模拟；通过测压模型风洞试验测量风压系数的分布，并计算静风荷载；用气动弹性模型测量风致响应，包括大厦顶部的位移响应、加速度响应和角速度响应，并计算动风荷载．此外，还讨论了周边环境建筑对其风效应的影响．研究表明，周边建筑环境对大厦的静力和动力风荷载均有较大影响，在设计风速范围内不会产生驰振现象，其顶部加速度和角速度均小于限值，舒适性满足规范要求．     

A game model of international trade,transport costs,invasive species,and protocol compliance

We study the duopolistic interaction between two monopolists located in two different countries who sell an imperfect substitute good in two markets. The traded good is transported between the two nations on ships using solid wood packing materials (SWPMs) and hence the presence of one or more invasive species is a problem. We use a game model to analyze this interaction in three steps. First, we study the benchmark case of autarky or no trade between the two nations. Second, we introduce transport costs and then study the effect of free trade on the profits of the two monopolists. Finally, we suppose that invasive species are present in the SWPMs. This fact requires compliance with an environmental protocol. We model this compliance by increasing the transport costs associated with trade and then demonstrate that a version of the so called Porter hypothesis holds. In other words, we show that compliance with a cost increasing environmental protocol can give rise to higher profits for the two monopolists under consideration.     

Overview of missing physical commodity trade data and its imputation using data augmentation

The physical aspects of commodity trade are becoming increasingly important on a global scale for transportation planning, demand management for transportation facilities and services, energy use, and environmental concerns. Such aspects (for example, weight and volume) of commodities are vital for logistics industry to allow for medium-to-long term planning at the strategic level and identify commodity flow trends. However, incomplete physical commodity trade databases impede proper analysis of trade flow between various countries. The missing physical values could be due to many reasons such as, (1) non-compliance of reporter countries with the prescribed regulations by World Customs Organization (WCO) (2) confidentiality issues, (3) delays in processing of data, or (4) erroneous reporting. The traditional missing data imputation methods, such as the substitution by mean, substitution by linear interpolation/extrapolation using adjacent points, the substitution by regression, and the substitution by stochastic regression, have been proposed in the context of estimating physical aspects of commodity trade data. However, a major demerit of these single imputation methods is their failure to incorporate uncertainty associated with missing data. The use of computationally complex stochastic methods to improve the accuracy of imputed data has recently become possible with the advancement of computer technology. Therefore, this study proposes a sophisticated data augmentation algorithm in order to impute missing physical commodity trade data. The key advantage of the proposed approach lies in the fact that instead of using a point estimate as the imputed value, it simulates a distribution of missing data through multiple imputations to reflect uncertainty and to maintain variability in the data. This approach also provides the flexibility to include fundamental distributional property of the variables, such as physical quantity, monetary value, price elasticity of demand, price variation, and product differentiation, and their correlations to generate reasonable average estimates of statistical inferences. An overview and limitations of most commonly used data imputation approaches is presented, followed by the theoretical basis and imputation procedure of the proposed approach. Lastly, a case study is presented to demonstrate the merits of the proposed approach in comparison to traditional imputation methods.     

我国自船自代型船舶代理公司转型研究

自船自代型船舶代理公司一直都被定义为其母公司的保障部门,在经历了金融危机后,高额的经营成本以及原有业务量的剧减促使自船自代型船舶代理公司转型,开展公共代理业务便成了该类企业的新利润源.文章从自船自代型船舶代理公司自身特点出发通过分析其开展新业务可能遇到的问题,并提出相应的建议     

“新干涉主义”评析

文章从战后国际干预的发展趋势入手,分析了＂新干涉主义＂产生的理论与实践背景,并指出＂新干涉主义＂是霸权主义、强权政治的集中体现,是对国际公认的国际关系的基本原则和《联合国宪章》的公然否定和对抗。虽然其貌似强大,但逆历史潮流而动,始终逃脱不了失败的命运。     

Sailing into a dilemma: An economic and legal analysis of an EU trading scheme for maritime emissions

On the basis of a joint economic and legal analysis, we evaluate the effects of a “regional” (European) emission trading scheme aiming at reducing emissions of international shipping. The focus lies on the question which share of emissions from maritime transport activities to and from the EU can and should be included in such a system. Our findings suggest that the attempt to implement an EU maritime ETS runs into a dilemma. It is not possible to design a system that achieves emission reductions in a cost efficient manner and is compatible with international law.     

Are there bubbles in the shipping freight market?

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the reconsideration of price bubbles specific to the shipping freight market based on the method of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF). This approach offers the opportunity to recognize multiple bubbles and set their corresponding original and final dates. Empirical results reveal that four bubbles existed in the shipping freight market between October 1988 and February 2018 in which freight deviated from fundamental values. Strong demand (especially in China), the supply capacity, crude oil prices and U.S. dollar fluctuations are potential explanations for the first three bubbles. The global financial crisis that burst in 2008 is the major factor results in the last bubble. Hence, we must distinguish the potential reasons of bubbles in different periods and take measures such as promoting economic multipolarization, strengthening the bargaining power of China, building an effective information transfer system, employing financial derivatives and accelerating the consolidation of the shipping industry to alleviate the negative influences on global seaborne trade.