铁路工程投资估算模糊综合评价方法研究与应用简

在铁路工程立项和可行性研究阶段,如何根据国家和行业的有关规定,合理、准确地进行投资估算,并满足估算的精度要求,所采用的方法就显得格外重要。基于铁路工程投资估算本身具有一定的模糊性特征,故此文结合模糊数学理论,构建适合铁路工程投资估算的快速预测模型,通过预测模型和选取的已建相似工程及投资,即可进行拟建工程的投资估算。通过实例验证,此文论述的预测模型和计算方法所估算的工程投资,与按行业估算编制办法编制的估算额,误差很小,在可控范围内。因方法简单,具有一定的实用性。     

浅析铁路建设标准化管理在控制投资中的作用

铁路建设标准化管理是推行铁路建设的管理方法,不仅可以加快铁路建设的进程,而且可以构建控制工程投资的管理体系,有效地控制铁路建设投资。此文通过阐述铁路建设标准化管理的概念和在工程投资控制中的作用,提出应加强建设标准、前期工作、招投标、合同管理、施工组织设计、资金运行等项重点工作。以达到有效控制工程投资的目的。     

浅谈公路施工设备的科学管理

通过分析目前公路建设中施工设备管理工作的重要性和存在的问题和弊端,在国际大环境下即加入世贸组织和国内小环境即加大西部开发公路建设部门所面临的机遇和挑战,探讨和论述了在市场经济条件下,如何加大投资力度、科学管理、单机核算、在国际质量管理体系的运用基础上,运行公路施工设备的管理模式.     

铜仁至吉首铁路速度目标值方案研究

速度目标值是高速铁路最为重要的技术标准之一,也是项目在决策阶段各方争论的焦点,其决定着其他技术标准的选择。铜仁至吉首铁路速度目标值选择从客流特征、与相关路网协调性、运输组织、时间目标值需求、工程投资、投资收益等方面进行了3种不同速度目标值的综合分析,结合项目特点,进一步对全线不同速度目标值的运行速度进行模拟牵引计算分析,研究结论为铜仁至吉首铁路宜采用250 km/h的速度目标值。     

灰色系统理论在工程投资估算中的应用

阐述灰色系统理论基本概念、主要内容,结合建筑工程实例,通过建立GM（1,1）模型对投资估算进行预测。预测结果表明,灰色系统预测理论与计算机技术相结合,预测值均达到Ⅰ级精度,可信度较高,能为工程立项决策提供科学依据。此理论具有广阔的应用前景。     

投资估算合理编制问题的探讨

从投资估算编制角度出发,分析了目前公路工程造价编制中存在的问题,提出建议及解决的办法。     

大型豪华邮轮应用动力电池的能效与经济性分析

动力电池装船有利于节能减排,但目前主要应用在短距离小尺度船上,在大型船舶上的应用和研究均较少。基于Carnival Vista 62.4 MW动力系统技术参数和航速信息,采用多种能量管理算法,对比分析原型和动力电池替代主机动力系统方案的动力性和燃油经济性,阐明动力电池装船的资本回报周期,为大型船舶动力系统节能减排提供参考。     

海运业跨国经营投资区域选择研究

建立了海运业跨国经营投资区域选择的层次分析模型,应用了Delphi、AHP、FUZZY综合评价方法来选择海运业跨国经营投资区域。     

Port investments on coastal and marine disasters prevention: Economic modeling and implications

Located along shorelines, seaports are highly vulnerable to coastal and marine natural disasters largely due to climate change. Damage caused by disasters can be prevented or alleviated if sufficient investments are made in a timely manner. However, despite a wide range of investment options and well-developed engineering expertise, port investment on disaster prevention remains a challenging task involving great complexities. This paper develops an integrated economic model for the analysis of disaster-prevention investments at a “landlord” port. It simultaneously considers the uncertainty of disaster occurrence and associated return of prevention investments, the information accumulation and related investment timing, and the benefit spillovers of investment among stakeholders. Our analysis shows that the timing of port investments depends on the probability of disasters. Immediate investment is optimal for disasters with very high probability, while investment should be postponed if such a probability is very low. Optimal timing for cases of intermediate probability cannot be determined analytically, as it is influenced by other factors such as discount rate, information accumulation and efficiency of investments. Positive spillovers between a port and its tenants lead to under-investment, which can be corrected by coordination between stakeholders. However, since there are risks of “overinvestment” (the marginal benefits of investments are zero ex post if there is no disaster), regulatory intervention is not always optimal when the regulator does not have a good understanding of disaster probability distribution. Therefore, scientific research would bring significant economic and strategic value to policy, planning and investment decisions.     

An investment appraisal method to compare LNG-fueled and conventional vessels

Ever stricter emission regulations stimulate vessel owners to consider the adoption of alternative marine fuels, such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In deciding whether to invest in LNG-fueled vessels, initial investment and operating costs are decisive factors that have not yet been fully studied in the literature. In this paper, we present a new investment appraisal method to compare the costs of LNG-fueled vessels with conventional vessels. We analyze the fuel costs and overall exploitation costs by simulating bunker planning decisions under stochastic fuel prices, presence in emission controlled areas, and route lengths. Our analyses reveal that the fuel costs of LNG-fueled vessels are often lower than those of conventional vessels, even under unfavorable LNG prices. Due to the higher initial investment costs in LNG-fueled vessels, these fuel cost reductions do not always translate into lower overall exploitation costs. By conducting numerical experiments, we identified conditions under which the exploitation costs of LNG-fueled vessels are lower than conventional vessels.