Urban Traffic Flow Prediction Using a Spatio-Temporal Random Effects Model

Traffic prediction is critical for the success of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, most spatio-temporal models suffer from high mathematical complexity and low tune-up flexibility. This article presents a novel spatio-temporal random effects (STRE) model that has a reduced computational complexity due to mathematical dimension reduction, with additional tune-up flexibility provided by a basis function capable of taking traffic patterns into account. Bellevue, WA, was selected as the model test site due to its widespread deployment of loop detectors. Data collected during the 2 weeks of July 2007 from 105 detectors in the downtown area were used in the modeling process and traffic volumes predicted for 14 detectors for the entire month of July 2008. The results show that the STRE model not only effectively predicts traffic volume but also outperforms three well-established volume prediction models, the enhanced versions of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and spatiotemporal ARMA, and artificial neural network. Even without further model tuning, all the experimental links produced mean absolute percentage errors between 8% and 16% except for three atypical locations. Based on lessons learned, recommendations are provided for future applications and tune-up of the proposed STRE model.     

基于水动力系数摄动的船舶横向运动姿态与受扰Kalman滤波的统计建模

该文考察船舶水动力参数在标称值附近按均匀分布发生随机变化时,船舶横向运动姿态及受扰Kalman估计的统计性能.针对某船,在5级海情,18kns航速及0°、45°、90°、135°、180°航向工况下,当船舶水动力系数按均匀分布发生±10%随机变化时,给出船舶姿态及受扰Kalman估计性能的概率建模方法及其应用.仿真结果表明,当水动力系数出现摄动时,估计精度服从对数正态分布,平均估计精度与未出现摄动时相比无显著变化.     

基于深度数据的车辆目标检测与跟踪方法

现有基于几何特征的目标检测与跟踪方法误检率较高,目标跟踪过程中的漏检易导致错误的目标关联.针对这些问题,本文提出了一种基于激光雷达(LiDAR)深度数据的车辆目标检测与跟踪方法.根据激光雷达深度数据特性,采用一种基于栅格的参数自动化聚类(PAG) 算法对原始数据进行处理,并在每个聚类中提取目标线段,获取目标特征.在此基础上对车辆目标进行识别,并计算得到目标的位置信息.采用卡尔曼滤波算法,制定滤波器管理策略,完成目标关联及状态估计.最后利用装备有一个前向激光雷达的实验车辆对提出的方法进行验证. 实验结果表明,本文提出的方法可准确识别并跟踪多个车辆目标,避免错误的目标关联.     

改进联合滤波在GPS/DR组合定位中的应用

根据低成本车辆GPS/DR组合定位系统传感器精度低和计算能力弱的特点,提出一种改进联合卡尔曼滤波(FKF)算法,并简化主滤波器信息融合算法,稍微降低融合精度,提高计算效率。试验结果表明,提出的改进联合滤波算法具有融合精度高、容错性好、计算量小、便于工程实现等优点。     

卡尔曼滤波法在斜拉桥施工误差控制中的应用

运用工程控制论的思想 ,将斜拉桥的施工误差控制视为一随机最优控制问题 ,建立相应的数学模型 ,采用卡尔曼最优一步预测 ,按确定性的最优控制规律构成团环状态反馈系统 ,对各施工节段进行调整控制 ,以期达到设计要求。     

Evaluation of RAOs of a semi-submersible platform using field measurements: A full-scale model in Caspian sea environmental conditions

The present research investigates the motion response of a semi-submersible platform using measured field data. The Iran-Amirkabir semi-submersible platform (SSP) was considered as full-scale model in operation conditions. First, 14 accelerometer sensors were installed on the platform's hull, and measurements were made in 5 different scenarios in the Caspian Sea environmental conditions. Then, the Response Amplitude Operators (RAOs) for six degrees of motion were extracted using measured accelerator data. The Surge, Sway, and Heave RAOs processed by the Kalman estimation filter, Pitch, Roll, and Yaw RAOs were calculated from the Sensor Array method. Moreover, the boundary element method in ANSYS/AQWA software for the Iran-Amirkabir semi-submersible model was developed, and the RAO results were validated against the extracted field measurements. The obtained results from the Sensor Array method and the Kalman estimation filter are compared with the numerical simulations, which show Root Mean Square Errors of less than 3% and 4%, respectively for rotational and translational movements. The Mean Square Errors between both methods were also close to zero. Therefore, the proposed methods predicted activities of the studied SSP with relatively good accuracy by field data collected in the Caspian Sea.