Analysis of child pick-up during daily routines and for daytime no-notice evacuations

In a no-notice disaster (e.g., nuclear explosion, terrorist attack, or hazardous materials release), an evacuation may start immediately after the disaster strikes. When a no-notice evacuation occurs during the daytime, household members are scattered throughout the regional network, and some family members (e.g., children) may need to be picked up. This household pick-up and gathering behavior was seldom investigated in previous work due to insufficient data; this gap in our understanding about who within families handles child-gathering is addressed here. Three hundred fifteen interviews were conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area to ascertain how respondents planned their response to hypothetical no-notice emergency evacuation orders. This paper presents the influencing factors that affect household pick-up and gathering behavior/expectations and the logistic regression models developed to predict the probability that parents pick up a child in three situations: a normal weekday and two hypothetical emergency scenarios. The results showed that both mothers and fathers were more likely to pick up a child under emergency conditions than they were on a normal weekday. For a normal weekday, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability of parents picking up children; in other words, the farther parents are from their children, the less likely they will pick them up. In an emergency, effects of distance on pick-up behavior were significant for women, but not significant for men; that is, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability that mothers pick up a child, but had a less significant effect on the fathers’ probability. Another significant factor affecting child pick-up behavior/expectations was household income when controlling for distance. The results of this study confirm that parents expect to gather children under emergency conditions, which needs to be accounted for in evacuation planning; failure to do so could cause difficulties in executing the pick-ups, lead to considerable queuing and rerouting, and extend the time citizens are exposed to high levels of risk.     

城市景点的公共交通出行便捷性指数:基于武汉市的调查研究

为弥补城市景点公共交通便捷性评价主客观分离缺陷,以单个游客出行链为研究对象,以游客个体特征,公共交通出行链和景点吸引力这3个层面的因素为自变量,游客感知便捷程度为因变量,采用武汉市15个主要景点的问卷数据建立多项Logistic和CI(Convenience Index)模型.利用回归系数分析因素的影响,用标准化系数分...     

生长模型在地基沉降全过程预测中的应用

地基的全过程沉降量与时间的关系呈S形曲线,可以用Logistic、Von Bertalanffy和Gompertz三种非线性生长模型来描述。结合工程实例预测地基沉降,三种曲线的拟合度均在0.99以上。     

Time-dependent drivers’ merging behavior model in work zone merging areas

This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the actual work zone merging traffic data, we propose a time-dependent logistic regression model considering the possible time-varying effects of influencing factors, and a standard logistic regression model for the purpose of model comparison. Model comparison results show that the time-dependent model performs better than the standard model because the former can provide higher prediction accuracy. The time-dependent model results show that seven factors exhibit time-varying effects on the drivers’ merging behavior, including merging vehicle speed, through lane lead vehicle speed and through lane lag vehicle speed, longitudinal gap between the merging and lead vehicles, longitudinal gap between the merging and through lane lead vehicles, types of through lane lead and through lane lag vehicles. Interestingly, both the through lane lead vehicle speed and the through lane lag vehicle speed are found to exhibit heterogeneous effects at different times of the merging implementation period. One important finding from this study is that the merging vehicle has a decreasing willingness to take the choice of “complete a merging maneuver” as the elapsed time increases if the through lane lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle.     

铁路货运发展模式与策略研究

运用SWOT分析法,针对我国铁路货运发展现状,对铁路货运融入物流系统的优势、劣势、机会、威胁进行系统分析,提出面向物流系统的铁路货运发展模式;根据我国铁路货运融入现代物流的发展过程,提出优势—机会发展战略、优势—威胁发展战略、劣势—机会发展战略和劣势—威胁发展战略的具体措施。     

城市轨道交通客流量增长的系统动力学研究

以逻辑斯蒂方程为基础、系统动力学为工具建立单条线路及整个城市轨道交通网的客流量发展模型,通过分析影响城市轨道交通客流量变化的多个因素探讨城市轨道交通客流量变化的一般规律,对如何发展城市轨道交通提出建议。     

Developing environmentally sustainable logistics: Exploring themes and challenges from a logistics service providers’ perspective

The purpose of this paper is to explore themes and challenges in developing environmentally sustainable logistical activities.The approach is explorative with a cross sectional design that takes advantage of ten case studies out of selected logistics service providers (LSPs) operating primarily in the Scandinavian countries.The findings illustrate the major themes by analyzing current and future activities in developing environmentally sustainable logistical activities. In addition, four categories of challenges are identified: customer priorities, managerial complexity, network imbalance, and technological and legislative uncertainties. It is concluded that there is a great need for a holistic perspective where LSPs and product owners together analyze and design future logistical setups.The suggested holistic and integrative model, building on a three-dimensional concurrent engineering framework, provides new opportunities for research. Further research is needed to improve the interrelationship between LSPs and their customers in the development of sustainable logistical solutions.This paper puts forward recommendations for the sustainable development of logistics by combining the results from the case studies with a review of related literature. This will be beneficial for managers and policy makers when they approach sustainable logistical challenges. The emergence and synthesis of themes and challenges are critical for a sustainable society.     

�ۺϿ��˽�ͨϵͳ������֯�ݻ��о�

综合客运交通系统是一个复杂的开放系统,由于其内部复杂的相互作用使对系统演化过程的认识尚不明确.本文运用自组织理论分析综合客运交通系统的自组织演化机制,阐述并论证了自组织理论对于综合客运交通系统的适用性,以客运周转量为系统变量,利用Logistic模型构建综合客运交通系统的自组织演化模型,并对模型进行了仿真分析.结果表明,综合客运交通系统可以自组织演化至平衡状态;各种运输方式达到平衡状态所需时间与初始状态无关,与固有增长率正相关,平衡状态与自身的系统容量正相关,各种运输方式平衡状态与运输方式间的影响系数密切相关.因此,综合客运交通系统具有明显的自组织特性.     

非胰岛素依赖型糖尿病患者影响因素的非条件Logistic回归分析

收集西安市若干医院内分泌门诊和病房的非胰岛素依赖型糖尿病（Noninsulindependentdiabetesmellitus，NIDDM）患者100例作为病例组，以同院、同时就诊的非糖尿病的外科患者100例作为对照，进行非条件Logistic回归分析。结果显示：NIDDM患者的家族遗传史、肥胖及脂肪主要蓄积在上半身（腰臀比值较大）、重大精神刺激、喜食甜食和富脂类食物等的比例显著高于对照组（P＜0．05）；而喜食水果、中及重型体力劳动强度的比例显著低于对照组（P＜0．05）。研究结果将为今后进行NID－DM社区干预及该病的预防提供依据。     

陆军船艇装备保障效能分析及评估体系研究

文中分析了陆军船艇装备保障效能分析及评估体系的建立原则与要求,构建了效能评估模型并进行了理论分析,最后用实例对模型进行验证,计算结果表明该效能评估体系合理有效,可为陆军船艇装备保障能力建设提供理论指导,也可对其它装备保障效能的分析和评估提供借鉴作用。