排序方式: 共有77条查询结果,搜索用时 0 毫秒
61.
为了获取准确客观的交通流运行状态信息,满足交通诱导的需求,综合考虑城市道路中交通流演变的随机性和复杂性,以及实时交通状态判别本身具有的不确定性,通过分析交通状态和影响因素之间的映射关系,提出了一种交通状态概率预报的Logistic回归模型. 该模型借助Logistic回归方法探讨交通状态和交通参数之间的函数关系,并对下一时段交通状态及其发生的概率进行预报. 最后结合实际数据,进行了不同预报时长的分级交通状态的概率预报实验,独立样本检验结果表明,该模型预报准确率高,稳定性好. 相似文献
62.
基于地铁刷卡数据的通学模式影响机理研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
长距离的通学出行是导致中小学生被家长用小汽车接送的关键因素,鼓励中长距离通学学生使用地铁出行可以减少他们对小汽车的依赖.本文在考虑潜在接送行为的基础上,利用地铁IC卡刷卡数据研究了南京市中小学生的地铁通学模式.通过识别出地铁通学人群及对应的通学记录,把学生地铁通学行为分为只去不回 (HTSO)、只回不去 (STHO)、往返 (SHUTTLE)和其他(OTHERS)模式,并建立多元Logistic模型分析了学生出行特征、所在区位、居住地及学校周边建成环境特征对其地铁通学模式的影响.模型结果显示,学生的出发时刻、出行频率、居住地区位、学校区位及建成环境对地铁通学模式有显著影响,且居住地和学校周边建成环境对学生通学模式的影响不同. 相似文献
63.
公交车内站立乘客面积是影响公共交通乘车阶段乘客满意度的关键指标.将使乘客感受由不满意转变为满意的公交车站立乘客面积的临界值定义为临界站立乘客面积.本文旨在提出临界站立乘客面积的建议值.首先,在呼和浩特市开展了客流调查及问卷调查;然后,基于调查所获数据,采用有序 Logistic回归建立了乘客满意度与站立乘客面积的模型;最后,通过对所建模型的图形化分析,提出临界站立乘客面积(即保证乘客满意的最小站立乘客面积)的建议值为 0.25 m2/人.本文研究成果为公共交通乘车阶段的乘客满意度评价、舒适性评价提供量化依据,为公交车额定载客量的核定提供新思路. 相似文献
64.
主要对行人过渡信号期间信号灯不同显示方式下行人过街的影响因素进行分析,并建立了行人过街行为的预测模型.使用视频和问卷调查法,在重庆市3 个交叉口进行拍摄,记录下行人在过渡信号期间的过街行为.同时,对通过交叉口的行人使用截断式调查的方式进行问卷调查.问卷基于计划行为理论进行设置,为了验证问卷的有效性和科学性,调查后对问卷进行了信度和效度验证,结果表明该问卷能够反映过渡信号阶段行人过街选择行为的决策机理.同时,通过上述调查分析结果表明,心理因素中行人的态度对行人过街行为影响最大.用Pearson x2 检验法,分析了影响行人选择行为的因素,并建立了二元Logit模型预测行人在过渡信号期间的过街行为. 相似文献
65.
66.
为揭示各类交通规划管理政策和先进技术对道路交通系统的影响,构建了描述能源储备
量、机动车保有量和路网面积动态演化的三维非线性动力模型,重点对均衡解的存在性、唯一性
和稳定性进行分析。同时,通过数值试验验证了所得结论的正确性。结果表明:若所有变量及参
数为正,则有实际意义的均衡解唯一且稳定;若满足可供机动车行驶的能源增长率降低城镇开发
边界扩大、共享泊位供给量增加、机动车的平均能源消耗量增加中任一条件,则均衡平均车速提
高;当满足一定条件时,路网面积和路网容量的换算系数增加会提高均衡平均车速;存在最优行
驶机动车比例,可使均衡路网饱和度达到最低。 相似文献
67.
Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant
socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets.
This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on
aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions
cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature
each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion
of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts
with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows
the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road
routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears
insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.
John Parkin joined academia after a career in consultancy. He has experience of all stages of the promotion of transport infrastructure, from planning and modelling to design and implementation. His specialises in transport engineering with an emphasis on design innovation, sustainability principles and community benefit. Mark Wardman has been involved in transport research for over 20 years. His main research interests are in behavioural response models in general and stated preference in particular. Areas of application have included public transport, notably rail, with several novel applications to cycling and environmental issues. Matthew Page research interests include transport policy and how it has developed, the environmental impacts of transport, the impacts of transport on climate change, and walking and cycling. 相似文献
Matthew PageEmail: |
John Parkin joined academia after a career in consultancy. He has experience of all stages of the promotion of transport infrastructure, from planning and modelling to design and implementation. His specialises in transport engineering with an emphasis on design innovation, sustainability principles and community benefit. Mark Wardman has been involved in transport research for over 20 years. His main research interests are in behavioural response models in general and stated preference in particular. Areas of application have included public transport, notably rail, with several novel applications to cycling and environmental issues. Matthew Page research interests include transport policy and how it has developed, the environmental impacts of transport, the impacts of transport on climate change, and walking and cycling. 相似文献
68.
基于耗散结构理论的公路快速货运系统演化机理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对公路快速货运系统复杂的人因社会经济系统特性,利用耗散结构理论探讨了公路快速货运系统的开放性、非平衡性、涨落和非线性特征;分析了在公路快速货运系统这样一个非平衡的开放系统中,系统组成要素在非线性作用下产生的“巨涨落”是产生稳定、有序结构的内在机制。应用非线性方程,依据系统耗散机理,以公路快运货物量为系统支配变量,外部经济条件为系统控制参数,基础设施条件为系统影响参数,建立单区域和整个区域条件下的公路快速货运系统演化模型,并分析其演化机理与演化条件,揭示了单区域和整个区域公路快速货运系统的演化特点,为按照客观规律制定保障系统快速发展的相应政策或措施提供参考。 相似文献
69.
Haizhong Wang 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2011,45(6):554-566
The fundamental diagram, as the graphical representation of the relationships among traffic flow, speed, and density, has been the foundation of traffic flow theory and transportation engineering. Seventy-five years after the seminal Greenshields model, a variety of models have been proposed to mathematically represent the speed-density relationship which underlies the fundamental diagram. Observed in these models was a clear path toward two competing goals: mathematical elegance and empirical accuracy. As the latest development of such a pursuit, this paper presents a family of speed-density models with varying numbers of parameters. All of these models perform satisfactorily and have physically meaningful parameters. In addition, speed variation with traffic density is accounted for; this enables statistical approaches to traffic flow analysis. The results of this paper not only improve our understanding of traffic flow but also provide a sound basis for transportation engineering studies. 相似文献
70.
邓明阳 《南通航运职业技术学院学报》2012,(1):61-65
文章从对汽车自身性能变化影响的角度,探讨车辆因素对交通安全的影响,着重讨论载重、爆胎和视野对车辆安全行驶的关键性影响。结合贝叶斯公式和logistic模型,求出各种因子的权重,并确定单一因子对单车事故的影响度,利用该计算方法找出影响汽车安全行驶的各种因子影响度,为单车事故的交通伤害预防提高科学依据。 相似文献