Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

道路运输行业安全监管现状分析及对策研究

结合道路运输行业安全监管现状,从道路运输行业安全监管职责和内容、监管方式、安全检查方面对道路运输行业安全监管存在的问题进行分析,并有针对性的提出了相应的建议和对策。     

The identification and empirical characterization of vehicular (Lagrangian) fundamental diagrams in multilane traffic flow

Traditional macroscopic traffic flow modeling framework adopts the spatial–temporal coordinate system to analyze traffic flow dynamics. With such modeling and analysis paradigm, complications arise for traffic flow data collected from mobile sensors such as probe vehicles equipped with mobile phones, Bluetooth, and Global Positioning System devices. The vehicle‐based measurement technologies call for new modeling thoughts that address the unique features of moving measurements and explore their full potential. In this paper, we look into the concept of vehicular fundamental diagram (VFD) and discuss its engineering implications. VFD corresponds to a conventional fundamental diagram (FD) in the kinematic wave (KW) theory that adopts space–time coordinates. Similar to the regular FD in the KW theory, VFD encapsulates all traffic flow dynamics. In this paper, to demonstrate the full potential of VFD in interpreting multilane traffic flow dynamics, we generalize the classical Edie's formula and propose a direct approach of reconstructing VFD from traffic measurements in the vehicular coordinates. A smoothing algorithm is proposed to effectively reduce the nonphysical fluctuation of traffic states calculated from multilane vehicle trajectories. As an example, we apply the proposed methodology to explore the next‐generation simulation datasets and identify the existence and forms of shock waves in different coordinate systems. Our findings provide empirical justifications and further insight for the Lagrangian traffic flow theory and models when applied in practice. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) Beneficial for Society? A Cost Benefit Analysis to Evaluate their Potential Implementation in Spain

Abstract

In this paper we carry out a thorough review of the current research related to the benefits and costs arising from the implementation of longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs). From this review we concluded that despite the many studies available, little has been said about the sensitivity of the benefits and costs to the ultimate performance of the key variables related to the evolution of the economy, road transport performance, safety, and so on. In order to fill this gap, we have designed a sensitivity approach based on a cost benefit analysis tool to determine which variables demonstrate the greatest influence on the benefits and costs stemming from the implementation of LHVs. In order to test the methodology, we have used it in an analysis of the Spanish trunk network. The results show that the benefits of LHVs for society are significant. Even in the least favorable scenario, the economic benefits are greater than €3500 million over 15 years, and the environment enhanced as well, for CO₂ emissions are reduced by 2 Million tonnes. Overall we noted how the results are not very sensitive to the evolution of key variables in determining the final outcome. However, we found that the variables that have the greatest affect on the final benefit, such as traffic growth and social discount rate, depend basically on the performance of the overall economy. Moreover, the private cost for haulers seems to be more important in determining the final benefit than externality costs.     

Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

针对自适应巡航的驾驶人风格辨识

车辆进入自适应巡航工况下行驶时,不同风格的驾驶人会对自适应巡航控制系统(Adaptive Cruise Control,ACC)有不同的需求.文章首先通过对不同驾驶人在9种跟随试验下获取的实验数据分析,选取表征驾驶人风格的驾驶特征参数;其次对所有驾驶人驾驶特征参数利用K-mean算法聚类分析,将驾驶人三类,并利用BP神...     

城市公交线路模态工况构建方法研究

采用GPS设备对西安城市公交典型线路的运行工况进行实测,分别运用瞬态转模态方法和多目标优化法构建出城市客车模态工况.以8个特征参数相对误差为标准,对两种方法的精度进行了对比研究.研究表明,两种方法均能有效地完成工况构建,其中多目标优化法精度最高,瞬态转模态方法简单快捷,从而为工况构建方法的选取提供了思路和数据验证.     

某驱动桥气室失效问题的分析及改进

气室是驱动桥的重要组成部分,通过压缩空气和蓄能弹簧为制动器提供驱动力,从而实现整车的行车制动和驻车制动.如若气室发生故障,则会造成制动失效,影响整车的行驶安全.文章针对某驱动桥试验过程中出现的气室底部撕裂问题,通过运用机械振动、有限元分析等方法,对其失效模式进行剖析,通过改进方法,提升产品可靠性.     

汽车进气系统轰鸣声传递路径分析

为了消除进气系统带来的车内噪声问题,运用传递路径分析方法,源-路径-响应的分析思路,总结了进气系统噪声问题的传递路径,结合某轿车进气系统轰鸣声问题的改进,发现结构传递路径和空气传递路径对该进气轰鸣声均有重要贡献,通过降低空气滤清器安装点橡胶软垫的硬度和加强安装点车身侧支架,可有效降低车内轰鸣声.     

基于力学分析的皮卡车牵引能力研究

本文介绍了一种基于力学分析的皮卡车(也称多用途货车)牵引能力的理论计算和试验方法,得出了决定皮卡车牵引能力的主要因素有:皮卡车动力传动系统能力、驱动形式、结构强度,挂车类型以及道路情况等。经验证,理论计算得到的牵引能力与试验结果一致性较好:通过皮卡车牵引能力的计算和验证,能够有效指导企业进行设计开发,充分发挥皮卡车较强的牵引能力特性,推动皮卡车市场发展。